AlphaDraft DFS Lineup Advice for Week 6 (2/20/16)
Welcome! Today marks my first installment of the Alphadraft advice column. Alphadraft is one of the leading sites to play Fantasy eSports on, so using the same principles as my DraftKings article, I plan on giving some solid advice for Alphadraft.
The efficiency formula. As I mentioned above, I use a formula to assess the efficiency of the players. This formula combines several variables provided by the statistics of the players and spits out a value for the player that ranks their efficiency with 1.00 being the highest possible and 0.00 being the lowest.
The rankings. The goal of the rankings is to give you options for your team. I will give you 3 picks; the upside, the trap, and the smart play. A solid team mixes players with upside and smart plays. Smart plays tend to have a higher salary, the upsides are value players that have some risk, and the traps are players with high salary but poor matchups or downward trends.
Now on to the rankings!
TOP LANE
The Upside – KFO
Alphadraft uses a completely different algorithm to determine the player’s salaries than DraftKings. The ranges are smaller within positions. The upside play this week for Top Lane is KFO. Echo Fox seems to be turning it around with Froggen coming back. KFO seems most comfortable on initiators and has a great Rumble. With the emphasis on Rumble in Korea this week, and dragon being a more viable objective, KFO is a valuable pick that has a lot of potential this week. His effiency rating is second at 0.53.
The Trap – Impact
His salary is too high and his team is in a slump. Impact is one of the best top laners in the NALCS, but his potential to score this week is just not worthy of his salary. With an efficiency rating of 0.43, Impact is a tad overvalued. The best players are not always the top scorers, and this seems to be the case for Impact.
The Smart Play – Huni
Huni has the highest efficiency rating of top laners at 0.63. IMT has a great matchup on Saturday against REN and I fully expect their game to be the Reignover/Huni show, exploiting the weak points of REN. The game may be short, but the kills for Huni should be there, and with a salary that is not that much higher the worst top laner, Huni is the week’s smart play for the top lane.
JUNGLE
The Upside – Svenskeren
TSM v. C9 should be a blood bath. Svenskeren is a kill hungry jungler that is slightly risky due to his approach, but with his team looking better last week, Sven has some great upside. His salary is slightly above average at 7700, so taking a risk on him isn’t such a bad idea. The issue is that he is playing against the formidable Rush, but with Sven having stronger lanes, this advantage could be neutralized. I expect Sven to perform above what is generally predicted, so he is this week’s upside pick for the jungle.
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The Trap – Xmithie
CLG players do not score well in DFS. Their playstyle is controlled and lacks the kill presence of some of the other teams. This week CLG plays TIP, a team that is known to brawl, so it is possible Xmithie could have a solid game, but his salary is just too high for that risk. With an efficiency rating of 0.37, Xmithie is not my favorite start this week.
The Smart Play – Reignover
As with Huni, I expect the IMT v. REN game to be a top/jungle focused game. Huni likes to bully players that are weaker than him so I expect Reignover to be constantly in the topside. Crumbz is also one of the weakest junglers at controlling the game and his own jungle, so if Reignover picks the Nidalee to try and style on REN, he will put up huge numbers.
MID LANE
The Upside – Froggen
Froggen has a low salary and played well last week. Echo Fox have a tough matchup in Liquid, but Froggen is known to play safe and get kills even if his team falls behind. He is used to his team losing around him and does not die in those situations, so Froggen has great upside based on his salary and almost no downside even if his team tanks this Saturday.
The Trap – Pobelter
Statistically Pobelter is the most efficient play this week in the mid lane. The reason that he is the trap, albeit not a huge trap, is because you can only fill 3 slots with IMT players. All of the other IMT players are further ahead in efficiency compared to their positions so Pobelter is statistically the worst play of them. Pobelter will score points this week, the opportunity cost; however, is the reason that he is this week’s trap.
The Smart Play – Shiphtur
Shiphtur is great in daily fantasy sports. He plays safe, cleans up kills, and occasionally wins lane. This week he is playing into GBM, who is known for playing passive, something that Shiphtur is also known for. A low-pressure lane combined with his remarkably low salary and the fact that he has scored above average every week means that Shiphtur is definitely a smart play this week. Look to get value out of the mid lane.
ATTACK DAMAGE CARRY (ADC)
The Upside – Apollo
DIG are underrated in general. They may throw hard at every baron, but they generally play safe and pick up kills. Apollo is a steal at 7100 averaging 16 points per game. His efficacy rating is around the middle but is still at 0.57. ADC’s score higher in general, so taking Apollo as a flex pick or just picking him up as your ADC has a lot of upside this week.
The Trap – Freeze
All of the REN players are traps, which is why I generally do not mention them. Freeze is REN’s best player, and has some potential to do well, but this is not his Saturday. Playing IMT is not something any of the NALCS teams look forward to and Freeze will get even less help from his team this week than normal. Freeze does have some upside playing into the aggressive Wildturtle and the generally top focused IMT, but rolling the dice on Freeze is not advisable this week.
The Smart Play – WildTurtle
He may not score as high as last week, but Wildturtle should do great this week. He leads every player with an efficiency rating of 0.85, which means for his average points per game, his salary is actually low. The matchup is great and he should be able to play clean up. Piglet is a close second in the ADC position, but the Echo Fox matchup this week could go either way. Wildturtle is safer and has outperformed everyone thus far.
SUPPORT
The Upside – KiWi
KiWi is not always thought of as a great pickup, but he is DIG’s engage. He dies quite a bit, but also picks up kills and assists frequently. If KiWi is given Alistar, expect a good Saturday, if he is banned out, expect an average day at the office. KiWi is a value pick, having the second lowest salary of supports, and does pretty average as far as points scored. Alphadraft has the salaries of supports extremely high, meaning that taking value at this position is a pretty solid plan.
The Trap – Smoothie
If Alphadraft changes Smoothie to Smoothie/Matt then this is a fairly decent pickup. Currently, Smoothie is on an island. If he plays, he is not the most dynamic player on the team and Liquid have a bad matchup as far as value is concerned against Echo Fox. If he doesn’t play, you are out a massive salary of 7500. Either way, Smoothie is not an advisable pickup.
The Smart Play – Adrian/Yellowstar
If you have not run out of slots for IMT players, grab Adrian. He is the only support that averages over 20 points per game, has a great efficiency rating at 0.67, and seems to have no downside. If you did start 3 other IMT members, grab Yellowstar. Yellowstar has a good matchup in C9 and the inexperienced Hai. TSM has one of the best bot lanes in the NALCS and C9 are prone to dying 2v2. Yellowstar should do well this week and is right there beside Adrian in this week’s smart play for support.
TEAM
The Upside – Echo Fox
Echo Fox did great last week and look to continue their roll. Liquid are no push-overs; however, so there is substantial downside for this pick. At 3400 in salary, the value is massive and Echo Fox cannot be ignored for this week’s upside. Their efficiency is pretty low overall, but in the last two games it has skyrocketed. If KFO gets rolling and Froggen can contain FeniX, Echo Fox stand a chance against Liquid. Rolling the dice on Echo Fox is not the worst idea this week.
The Trap – IMT
The opportunity cost is too high. IMT will grab a bunch of towers, unless they randomly win too quickly. If this is a 23 minute game, IMT will do worse than their average by a substantial margin. IMT are not a pitfall, but taking them has a little too much risk this week.
The Smart Play – TSM
TSM v. C9 could go either way, as I have said before. Either way, the matchup looks even and there will be plenty of time for either team to stack up dragons and barons. TSM is the smart play due to a competitive salary and a good matchup. They should not roll over against C9 and I expect an emphasis on earlier dragons coming out of the YellowStar led TSM.
Thanks! This is the first of many advice articles for AlphaDraft. Hopefully this gives you some idea of who to play, and gives you results like my 3 top 5 finishes in EULCS this week. Remember to discuss and debate my points, it keeps me sharp.
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