Another Super-Hyped ’23 RB Prospect, but It’s Not All Noise

Pros

I liked Tyjae Spears before it was cool. Obviously, a lot more people know about him after he weighed in at 9 to 14 pounds higher than he was listed and shined in Senior Bowl drills and practices. So why did folks like me like him prior to this past week or so, and why is he rising up draft boards now?

Spears was only a 3-star recruit, but as Christian Williams of Devy Royale notes, his rating and lack of Power 5 offers were at least in part due to him being a sort of “late bloomer” in high school. Once he got to Tulane, he produced well. He was the 2022 American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year and was in Mel Kiper’s top 10 RBs in the draft class at one point earlier in the draft season.

Spears has good speed and very good burst off the line of scrimmage. He is also very agile and has good footwork. He turns upfield quickly when moving horizontally, and can be very elusive in small spaces. Most of his work was between the tackles, but he has speed to the edge. Spears sees the whole field well with good vision.

What was very impressive about Spears when we thought he was 190-195 was his toughness and ability to break tackles. His new current weight doesn’t make it less impressive; it just means he has a better chance of hanging in the NFL and helping us in fantasy football. Spears averaged 6.8 yards per attempt over his college career and, according to PFF, averaged 4.55 yards after contact per attempt in 2022, an excellent number, and forced 63 missed tackles. Even with that tough profile, he still had an elite elusiveness rating of 145.8 in 2022.

Additionally, Spears is underrated as a receiver. The stats don’t show huge production in that area, but he has shown good natural hands and an ability to run a wider variety of routes than we expect from most running backs.

Finally, while Spears is 22 (and will be 23 in June), he is technically a three-year player. Had he not dealt with a torn ACL in 2020 (from which he has shown a recovery), it’s likely he would have been an early declare.

From an analytics perspective, there are some things to like about Spears. His weight is one pound shy of the common 205-pound threshold for RBs, and his BMI crosses the 29.0 threshold at 29.6. Spears is easily going to break the 4.6 threshold with his 40-time, and anything at 4.45 or faster would give him at least a 105 for speed score. The threshold for running backs is generally 100. Lastly, his career 6.8 YPA and dominator rating of 31% also check the boxes we like to see.

Cons

Until about a week ago, the biggest knock on Spears was his size. The NFL is not friendly to running backs under 200, and their hit rate as reliable fantasy producers is low. He gained weight, and his BMI checks the box, but he is still not the size of a workhorse back like other prospects are in this class (e.g. Bijan Robinson and Zach Charbonnet).

Furthermore, any Group of 5 prospect’s competition level must be considered. He did torch USC in the Cotton Bowl, but Pac-12 schools are not known for their staunch defenses and expert tackling. Spears excelling during the Senior Bowl process is, however, a very good sign.

From an analytics perspective, Spears’ weight technically does not check the box, and his receptions market share did not grow at the rate you’d like to see. Of course, if he does not get drafted in rounds 1 to 3 in the NFL draft — which is not likely at this time — that will be another box Spears does not check.

Summary

Tyjae Spears is an exciting prospect. The hype we’ve seen lately may be overdone, but he is definitely a legitimate riser for our rookie drafts. If you were drafting today, the hype price would likely be too high, but I expect him to fall back down a bit as we get further away from Senior Bowl, and as the underclassmen enter the chat at the combine. It’s still early in draft season. The combine, interviews/visits, and of course eventual draft capital and landing spot will all tell us a lot.

If he can get even early day 3 draft capital (round 4 or 5) in the 2023 NFL Draft, and go somewhere where he won’t be asked to be a workhorse, or even where he can begin as a backup, he could very well be a value in rookie drafts. Spears pretty much had a 50/50 split between zone and gap runs, so he is scheme-versatile.

Based on those criteria, I like the same landing spots for Spears as I did for Izzy Abanikanda. Miami (85th overall), Dallas (91st & 130th), Buffalo (92nd, 131st, & 140th), Carolina (94th, 115th, and 133rd), and Chicago (104th, 135th, & 138th) – if they don’t re-sign David Montgomery – seem like good fits.

Ideal Role: backup (to start out), or a featured back in a committee (a “1A light”)

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: mid-2nd to early 3rd

Player Comp: Kenneth Gainwell, but better; a bigger/tougher James Cook; Michael Carter