Anthony Richardson Is NOT Malik Willis. That’s a Good Thing.

Pros

Anthony Richardson is a dynamic quarterback prospect with talent and tools for days and a sky-high ceiling. He is also very raw (or perhaps inexperienced is a better term?) and has put some awful moments on tape. Unsurprisingly, then, he is a very divisive prospect. At the time I’m writing this, there is increasing buzz around him being drafted first overall, only adding to the debates.

Richardson was a 4-star recruit out of high school and is the definition of a dual-threat quarterback – the coveted “Konami code” signal caller. Richardson is not a run-first quarterback, but he is a lethal runner. As a rusher, Richardson is fast, elusive, and physical. His rushing upside is enormous, making his potential fantasy impact similarly promising.

But as I often say, you need to pass well enough to stay on the field in the NFL for the cheat code to kick in.

As a passer, Richardson is Jekyll and Hyde on film. While there is no doubt he has a cannon arm, he also sometimes shows very good accuracy, touch, and velocity control. Richardson also throws very well on the run, a skill NFL teams increasingly value. But then, at times, he shows the exact opposite. Still, there seems to be enough for NFL coaches to work with, and he does demonstrate the ability to read defenses and process well. Anthony Richardson is NOT Malik Willis.

From an analytics perspective, Richardson will underwhelm in production categories, but he does have some “check marks.” While age is not quite as crucial for quarterbacks as it is for other positions, he is an early declare. As of now, he seems like a lock to be a first-round pick. Richardson also checks all the size boxes. Athleticism is not a category that is as important for quarterback prospects. Still, given that this trait is a big part of Richardson’s upside, it’s worth noting he should run an impressive 40-yard dash which, at his size, will also give him a good speed score and relative athletic score (RAS). Finally, as you might imagine, Richardson’s share of team rushing yards is well above the threshold we want to see from quarterbacks. He hit almost 15% in year 2 and over 25% in year 3. (calculations per Jay Stein)

Cons

I alluded to it above – Richardson’s passing has been very inconsistent. As much as he can impress, he can also disappoint with throwing into double coverage, inaccuracy, and a lack of nuance and touch on his passes. Richardson will need to work on some mechanical issues and take time to develop as a passer.

It’s worth noting, however, that Richardson’s flaws seem pretty fixable. Note in this video how Christian Williams describes Richardson’s rotational throwing style and how occasional happy feet can make that style produce inaccurate throws. He is not, as Christian notes, “naturally inaccurate,” which I feel is a label that can be used to describe Will Levis.

From an analytics perspective, Richardson will miss a lot of production marks we usually want to see from a quarterback slated to be a round 1 pick. His top adjusted yards per attempt mark was 7.6 in year 3. His QBR in year 3 was only 70.6, well below the 75 or above threshold. (calculations per Jay Stein) Many people will also point to Richardson’s sub-55 career completion percentage as a red flag.

Summary

Anthony Richardson is NOT Malik Willis. He is much bigger and possibly faster, has a stronger arm, played against SEC competition, reads defenses better, and has mechanical flaws that are tweakable as opposed to Willis’, which were more fundamental.

Like Tank Bigsby, Richardson’s struggles and lack of production need some contextualization. While yes, he has flaws that need work, his receiving corps was never very good when he did pass, and partly because that group was bad, Florida ran a lot. We must keep these things in mind when evaluating a prospect’s upside.

At the moment, Richardson seems like a lock as a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, with the possibility he even goes first overall to a team that trades up. I’ve said multiple times I don’t think he nor Levis deserve first-round capital, but that’s how quarterback is in the NFL now.

In a superflex format, first-round quarterbacks are good rookie draft selections because they can be traded easily and will retain value even when they struggle early, unlike assets at other positions.

Whether he goes first overall after a trade or not, we could realistically see Richardson taken by several teams. The Texans (currently 2nd and 12th overall), Colts (4th), and Panthers (9th) are all good fits. Depending on what happens in free agency and whether or not Aaron Rodgers gets traded, the Seahawks (5th), Raiders (7th), Jets (13th), and Commanders (16th) could also be suitors. However, New York and Washington would almost surely have to trade up as things stand now. If the Lions (6th) want to grab their post-Jared Goff option, we can’t count them out either.

Let’s name some dark horse candidates who could trade up, just for the heck of it. The Buccaneers (currently 19th), the Ravens (23rd) if they don’t re-sign Lamar Jackson (or tag-and-trade him), the Vikings (24th) seeking life after Kirk Cousins, the Giants (26th) if they move on from Daniel Jones, or Saints (30th) could cause a mighty stir, as none of them have been rumored to trading up nor linked to Richardson.

Ultimately, we want to see Richardson go somewhere where he can sit for a year to learn and develop and to a coaching staff we trust to make the offense fit his strengths. Besides draft capital, these factors will determine how high I’m willing to take him in rookie drafts.

Ideal Role: sit for a year, then a starting QB with huge upside

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: mid-1st to late 1st

Player Comp: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Justin Fields