DraftKings:NBA Picks 01/15/21
As it stands now, we have eight games on this slate. We have seen multiple games postponed recently due to Covid and I wouldn’t be surprised if there is more tomorrow. There is a few teams on this slate that have had two or more games postponed, and still will likely be short-handed. It sucks researching and getting things put together how you want and then the alert comes in that one of your core plays is now going to miss the game. I know it gets frustrating, but that frustration usually comes with some solid value plays too.
The best advice for a newer NBA DFS player is to have multiple sources to alert you on lineup changes. When you’re able to make last-second changes that some might not be able to get, it can change your night instantly. It’s going to be chaotic thru the season if you haven’t noticed already. I’m here to hopefully help with some of that chaos and give you some ideas of where you can possibly start at.
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Top Play | Luka Doncic (11,000): Over the last five games, Luka has averaged 68.7 fantasy points per game. He had a slow start to the year, but since he’s found his shot, he has been on a tear. The Mavericks have been dealing with Covid issues, so Luka is going to get even more usage and in close games, he has a floor of 35 minutes. In the last five games, he is averaging 1.8 fantasy points per minute. The matchup with the Bucks is one they will need Luka to stay hot and play big minutes if they want to keep the game close. With a total of 227 and the Bucks favored by 6, I think it’s one that will stay close, and Luka and Giannis Antetokounmpo will be battling back and forth all game.
Mid-tier | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (7,700): He has cooled off in his last two games, but I believe he gets it going again in this matchup. In the three games prior he scored 50 or more fantasy points in all three. With a usage rate of 26.5 and playing at least 30 minutes per game I like this spot for SGA. At his price tag, he averages 5x value. There may be more news that could come out and change things, but for now I’m looking to have quite a bit of exposure to SGA.
Value |Nickeil Alexander-Walker (4,400): In the last game without Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe, he had a coming out party. Those type of performances will make an injured guy want to get back ASAP. It looks like Ball will be out again and Bledsoe is questionable. If Bledsoe and Zion Williamson are both back it will hurt him some, but he should still see minutes in the mid twenties. I will look to him for value even if they are both back, but if one of the two remains out, I think he could be the best value on the slate again. I would monitor the news for this one forsure.
Fade |Donovan Mitchell (8,400): The price on Mitchell is too high for me. As a basketball player, I love his talent but from a fantasy perspective, he doesn’t do enough outside of scoring. The matchup is a good one, but at his price he has only been 5x in two different games. The only times he has been able to score more than 42 fantasy points, is in games he scores at least 30 real life points. While he is capable of 30 real life points, it’s not something I feel he does enough times to make it worth it.
Others I Like: Jordan Clarkson, Paul George, Trae Young
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Top Play | Giannis Antetokounmpo (10,800): As I mentioned in the Luka write-up, I think we see Giannis and Luka battle back and forth all night. The same thing can be said for Giannis, in games that stay close enough for him to get 30 plus minutes, he is usually going to hit value. We know he has one of the safest floors and in the right matchup, he can safely be projected to hit 60 or more. This matchup is one that I believe we see him finish between 62-65 fantasy points with potential for more. We will have to see if the cheap value will be there like it has been for the past couple of nights and if it is I will start lineups with Giannis and Luka and fill in from there.
Mid-tier | Jaylen Brown (8,900): The verdict is out still on whether Brown plays or not. As much as I don’t like playing Brown at almost 9k, if he plays I think we definitely have to consider it. The Celtics have had their last three games postponed and will still likely be short-handed in this one. We know Jayson Tatum is out, and Kemba Walker remains out as well, but Daniel Theis and Semi Ojeleye are both questionable as well. That leaves the Celtics thin and it would give Brown a big bump in usage. He has averaged 44 fantasy points per game this year and has had multiple games in the mid 50s. The path for Brown to go for 50 plus is pretty clear cut with that type of usage bump.
Value |Grant Williams (3,500): The Celtics being thin in the frontcourt puts Williams in play for good value. In the last two games he has played at least 20 minutes or more, he has averaged right under 24 fantasy points. It seems likely he would need to play at least 20 minutes with the injury news. With a price of $3,5000 I think he provides enough value in this spot to make him good value, and it helps open up some higher-priced guys.
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Fade |Kristaps Porzingis (8,000): This is an easy fade for me right now. His price is too high for someone that isn’t likely to play more than 20-22 minutes. If he had been back for a few games and was playing 26 or more then I could consider it. I will stay away from the unicorn until he gets back to where he needs to be and playing 28 minutes or more at least.
Others I Like: Kawhi Leonard, Brandon Ingram, De’Andre Hunter
Centers
Top Play |Julius Randle (9,100): The best thing for Randle’s career has been Coach Thibodeau. It’s no secret that Thibodeau likes to run his starters in the ground, and Randle has taken full advantage of it. He is one of four players this year that leads his team in points, rebounds, and assists. Those numbers have helped Randle average 48 fantasy points per game and in 6 of his 12 games, he has scored 50 to 60 fantasy points. His three point and free throw percentages are both up as well. His season high is 63.5 fantasy points and it came against this same Cleveland team. You can safely load Randle in your lineups.
Mid-tier | Al Horford (5,600): He should be in for this game, and he provides good value in this matchup. I have mentioned multiple times how I always attack the Bulls with the big guys. That isn’t going to change anytime soon either. We know Horford isn’t going to likely go 50 plus anytime soon, but he does provide steady value at this price tag. I think we see Horford finish between 32-35 fantasy points and until some news comes out with more value opening up, I will take 5-6x at this price tag.
Value | Tristan Thompson (4,800): The Celtics is likely where we’re going to get most of the value from and that’s the case with Thompson. It’s possible that Daniel Theis and Robert Williams are both out. That would leave Thompson to play more minutes and a usage bump. The Celtics will need to have some body with Thompson’s size and rebounding skills to help control Nikola Vucevic on the boards. As it stands right now, that would leave Thompson to be that guy. For his price and likely increase in minutes and usage it leads to an easy path for Thompson to exceed value.
Fade |Larry Nance (6,600): I think that Nance is too up and down for my taste. He doesn’t have an expensive price tag, but it’s expensive enough that if he puts up less than 30 fantasy points he will likely hold you back. The trade for James Harden also brought Jarrett Allen and Taureen Prince to Cleveland. If they both are active it could cut into minutes and usage for Nance. I just can’t trust Nance enough right now and I will have zero exposure.
Others I Like: Mitchell Robinson, Willie Cauley-Stein, Jarred Vanderbilt
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!
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