It seems almost blasphemous to narrow the running back free agents to just seven. This market will tip the balance for many teams and, most importantly, our fantasy teams. Yes, even those who employ zero running back strategy need to be aware.
We like steady, but we crave amazing feats of excellence. While there is the hype surrounding the potential 2023 rookies looking to be drafted, proven talent is a safe bet, especially when that talent showed up and showed out in his contract year.
Tony Pollard makes the top seven even with the season-ending injury he experienced in the playoff round. While Kareem Hunt, Alexander Mattison, and Samaje Perine (to name only a few) missed the top seven, well, because it’s a short list.
Away we go…
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Saquon Barkley
| Games | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | YPC | Team Run Plays/G | Evaded Tackles | Targets | Fantasy Points/G |
| 16 | 295 | 1312 | 4.4 | 30.6 | 5.4/g | 4.8/g | 17.8 |
Barkley and the rest of the New York Giants flourished in the first year under head coach and NFL Coach of the Year Brian Daboll.
The 2022 season was Barkley’s best year since his rookie season. This season he was responsible for 30% of the Giants’ total yards on offense and was credited with 32 explosive runs, which tied for fifth among running backs.
Per Spotrac.com, the New York Giants have the third most salary cap space ($42,169,480). They also have 21 unrestricted free agents, including running back Matt Breida, wide receiver Darius Slayton, and quarterback Daniel Jones.
As his fifth-year option is set to expire, it is reported that Barkley turned down $ 12 million yearly as he is looking for $ 16 million yearly.
Fantasy Landing Spot: It is clear that Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka have no problem running the offense through Barkley.
Barkley was on the field for 79.9% of the snaps and had an 80.1% opportunity share.
The Giants were eighth in rushing attempts per game and sixth in average rushing yards per game (146.3).
Of course, a lot of changes in a year, but not including divisional opponents, the Giants will play five of the teams that were in the top 15 for fantasy points allowed to running backs in 2022: Arizona Cardinals 3rd most, Seattle Seahawks 4th most, Las Vegas Raiders 7th most, Green Bay Packers 8th most and LA Rams 11th most.
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Josh Jacobs
| Games | Rushing Attempt | Rushing Yards | YPC | Team Run Plays/G | Evaded Tackles | Targets | Fantasy Points/G |
| 17 | 340 | 1653 | 4.9 | 25.1 | 7.2/G | 3.8/G | 19.3 |
After the Raiders declined his fifth-year option, Jacobs went out and made them regret it. Jacobs had the best season of his career that, included 90 missed tackles, 3.4 yards after contact per attempt, and 400 receiving yards. That is not bad for someone who entered the fantasy season with an ADP of RB#22.
Fantasy Landing Spot: Miami Dolphins
First, it is no secret that Jacobs enjoys playing where no income taxes stunt his paycheck. Miami checks that box. Second, all of the Dolphins’ running backs are free agents.
When quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was healthy, the Dolphins, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, were formidable. What was missing was a dependable run game. The Dolphins were 31st in rushing attempts and 25th in run yardage.
Jacobs would be an upgrade on the backs the Dolphins put on the field last season. The threat of Hill and Waddle could open up the possibilities for Jacob to equal or surpass his numbers for last season.
The downside is the Dolphins are currently -12,780,861 under cap space per Spotrac.com.
There are also reports that Jacobs is not against staying in Vegas should the Raiders acquire Aaron Rodgers, even if it means Jacobs playing under the franchise tag. BLECH
Tony Pollard
Don’t stop me if you have heard this (but you have heard this). Pollard had the best year of his career in the 2022 season. Unfortunately, he suffered a broken fibula and a high ankle sprain in the playoffs, which required surgery. He is still a hot commodity in the free agent market.
| Games | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | YPC | Team Run Plays/G | Evaded Tackles | Targets | Fantasy Points/G |
| 16 | 193 | 1007 | 5.2 | 31.2 | 3.7/G | 3.4/G | 15.6 |
Dallas’ insistence on using Ezekiel Elliott as the primary back (in seven years, Elliott has 1,881 rushing attempts) was both a blessing and a curse.
A curse because it puts a ceiling on Pollard’s fantasy relevance and a blessing because Pollard has less wear and tear on his body. Last season alone, Elliott had 231 rushing attempts to Pollard’s 193, even though Elliott averaged only 3.8 yards per carry with only 17 explosive runs compared to Pollard’s 31 explosive runs.
Pollard also had 3.82 yards after contact per attempt with zero fumbles and 41 missed tackles.
Fantasy Landing Spot: There are rumors that Dallas is looking to restructure Elliott’s contract and put the franchise tag on Pollard! Boo! However, they have a new offensive coordinator, and Mike McCarthy will call the offensive plays. It could be worse, Or it could be better.
Buffalo Bills are the landing spot for Pollard.
The Bills have the 18th most targets to the RB1 position, 52, last season. That is three less than the Cowboys targeting Pollard with 55.
Singletary, the Bills’ recipient of the 52 targets, was underwhelming last season. He had one game with over 100 rushing yards (106 against the Chicago Bears) and five rushing touchdowns while averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
The Bills were 16th in rushing attempts per game at 26.4, running the ball on 40.56% of their offensive plays.
In the divisional playoff loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, quarterback Josh Allen was the leading rusher with 26 rushing yards (Singletary had 24 on six carries).
Sure, there is James Cook, who looks to become the RB1 in Buffalo, but his style is not cohesive with every down back. Pollard would look to be in a timeshare and lose targets to Cook, but the Bills would finally have a running back who is productive in both the run and passing game.
Neither team is great in Spotrac.com’s projections of cap space. The Cowboys are currently $-9,852,887 over the cap, and the Bills are $-21,261,462 over the cap.
Miles Sanders
| Games | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | YPC | Team Run Plays/G | Evaded Tackles | Targets | Fantasy Points/G |
| 17 | 259 | 1269 | 4.9 | 31.9 | 3.8/g | 1.5/g | 12.7 |
*Written before Super Bowl*
Sanders is in the final year of his rookie contract. He was drafted in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft.
This season Sanders posted a career-high in scrimmage yards (1,347) and touchdowns (11). The touchdown total is particularly interesting after Sanders had only nine rushing touchdowns through 40 games.
Fantasy Landing Spot: Philadelphia Eagles
Sanders is another running back whose fantasy and real team advantage is if he stays with his current team. Sanders has the advantage of running behind the best offensive line (which could change with the free agency) and running with Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles are 15th in cap space with $2,742,160 pre-Spotrac.com.
They also have 20 players who will be unrestricted free agents, including center Jason Kelce, guard Isaac Seumalo, safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and a slew of defensive players. With Kenneth Gainwell under contract and Jalen Hurts eligible for a contract extension in 2023, will Sanders be expendable?
This season when Sanders rushed for 70 or more yards, the Eagles were 8-0. And while his fantasy prowess depends on the run and less on the passing game, the Eagles are the perfect fit running the ball on 50.04% of their offensive plays.
It’s weird that Hurts simultaneously lowers Sander’s ceiling and raises his floor.
Sander’s lack of targets makes him less enticing in PPR formats, while the 33.3 rushing attempts per game (even with Hurts) makes him standard league solid.
Samaje Perine
Perine was the 114th pick in the 2017 NFL Draft by Washington. Perine helped himself and fantasy managers out this year when Joe Mixon went out with concussions.
| Games | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | YPC | Evaded Tackles | Team Run Plays/G | Targets | Fantasy Points/G |
| 16 | 95 | 394 | 4.1 | 2.1/g | 23.5 | 3.2/g | 8.9 |
Perine was more effective than Mixon this season. Mixon’s yards per carry were 3.9, and his evaded tackles were 1.9 per game. Although Mixon’s 4.9 targets per game were more than Perine, Perine demonstrated his value in the passing game with 34 receptions on 51 targets, two drops, 264 receiving yards, and four receiving touchdowns.
The Bengals target the running back in the passing game sixth most. The offense passes the ball on 62.29% of their offensive plays averaging 37.8 passing attempts per game.
Fantasy Landing Spot: Two avenues will make Perine fantasy relevant next season. The first is if Mixon is cut or traded and Perine is retained in Cincinnati. Perine then becomes RB1 (the RB1 in Cincinnati was targeted 75 times), and the Bengals draft a running back to be Perine’s backup.
Or the New Orleans Saints grab Perine, and Alvin Kamar’s suspension takes place.
The New Orleans scenario depends on a lot of moving parts. In addition to the potential Kamar suspension, a suitable quarterback has to be under center, so who will be the starting quarterback in New Orleans?
The best-case scenario for fantasy is Perine lands in an RB1 situation in either Cincinnati (sorry, Joe).
David Montgomery
| Games | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | YPC | Evaded Tackles | Team Run Plays/G | Targets | Fantasy Points/G |
| 16 | 201 | 801 | 4.0 | 5.1/g | 32.5 | 2.5/g | 11.1 |
Playing for the Chicago Bears has not helped Montgomery. Montgomery was a third-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. But he has consistently accumulated over 800 rushing yards in his four seasons, including 1,070 rushing yards in the 2020 season.
He has averaged 3.9 yards per carry for his career, 26 touchdowns, and 155 receiving yards.
From his Instagram post before Chicago’s last game, it appears Montgomery does not intend to stay in Chicago.
Fantasy Landing Spot: Spotrac.com has Montgomery’s current market value of $ 7.2 million annually.
Los Angeles Rams were besieged with injuries last season. But even when healthy, they weren’t looking all that great, especially with their running back carousel. Cam Akers, yea or nay? Akers went from not playing to playing sparingly to requesting a trade to finish the last three games with over 100 rushing yards and the last four games averaging over 5.0 yards per carry.
Rookie Kyren Williams is recovering from surgery, averaging 3.0 yards per carry in his last three games, not eclipsing 20 yards in any of the final three.
Head coach Sean McVay has stated’ “We’ve got to hit blocks better, we’ve got to be able to handle movement better, and then we’ve got to be able to create a little bit more than what sometimes the play is blocked for.”
Enter Montgomery, a bruising three-down back who can also catch passes out of the backfield. Montgomery’s evaded tackles are eighth in the league, his juke rate (34.5%) is ninth, and his 655 yards created are 20th (pre-teamrankings.com).
The obvious downside is the Rams are $-16,522,453 over the cap per Spotrac.com.
Jamaal Williams
This is what the HBO Hard Knocks darling did this season, broke the Detroit Lions/Barry Sanders record for most rushing touchdowns (17), and, even when thought of as solely a “touchdown specialist,” rushed for 1,066 yards.
| Games | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | YPC | Evaded Tackles/G | Team Run Plays/G | Targets | Fantasy Points/G |
| 17 | 262 | 1066 | 4.1 | 2.3/g | 28.1 | 0.9/g | 13.3 |
On the way to his breakout season, Williams was second in league with red zone touches (57) while being on the field for only a 41.4% snap share.
But most importantly, what you consistently hear most about Williams (besides his consistency) is how he is the “heart and soul” of the Detroit Lions.
Fantasy Landing Spot: Detroit Lions
There is a very limited scenario where Williams does not land in Detroit. The Lions are currently $15,854,119 in cap space, and William’s market value is $8,355,328 for two years (although some expectations predict $10 million a year).
With the oft-injured D’Andre Swift, Williams is a good bet for both Detroit and fantasy managers.
Conclusion
Although there are multiple capable running backs in this year’s free agency, their ceiling is by the 2023 NFL Draft and its running back class. Headed by Texas’ Bijan Robinson, this year’s class is loaded with names you know and need to know.
The free-agent running backs will be looking over their collective shoulders.
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