Best NBA Picks Against the Spread 2/12
Be sure to check the injury reports close to game time as these picks are subject to change!
San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks
The Spurs are now 6th in the Western Conference and are 14-11 overall. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games after suffering a loss to the Warriors at home 114-91.
Noticeably missing from the lineup was power forward Aldridge. Despite his age at 35 and decreasing in value every year, he brings a lot to the table on both sides of the ball.
The Spurs do not get their wins from their all-star talent, they get them by playing as a solid unit. They contain almost 8 players who are scoring in the double-digits lead by DeRozan who is averging 20.2 PPG, 6.7 APG and 5.1 RPG. DeRozan will get a favorable matchup against the Hawks who are 15th in the league in defensive rating. DeRozan will most likely score above his average of 20.2 PPG.
The Spurs main assist is their ability to keep the ball in their hands by having the least amount of turnovers per game with 11.1. Their second main asset is their defense which will they need to flex against the offensive-minded Hawks who are capable of dropping 130+ points any given night.
The Hawks are 4-6 in their last 10 games with a record of 11-13 which slots them into an 8th seed in the East.
The Hawks offense is lead by Trae Young who is having a phenomenal third year in the league behind his numbers of 26.6 PPG, 9.5 APG and 4.2 RPG. Despite these great numbers, his shooting percentage is lacking. He is only shooting 41% from the floor and 37% from deep. Once he improves his shooting, which most likely comes from forcing shots, he will propel to a top 5 point guard in the league.
The Hawks had a complete overhaul of their team in the offseason which is still causing chemistry issues despite all of the talent on their roster. Collins has seen a dip in his play because Young is looking to feed his other teammates. Collins is scoring 18.5 PPG and grabbing 7.8 boards a game. Grabbing boards and lose balls is a major asset for he Hawks that keeps them in the game. Newly acquired Capela is having a monster rebounding season with 14.2 RPG while also scoring 13.2 PPG.
The Hawks are the favorite at home with a spread of -2.0. The Hawks have more talent in their roster, a better offense and vastly superior on the boards. The Spurs will need to flex their defense in order to win this game. I believe the Hawks are due for a solid scoring night and will take advantage of Aldridge being out making the Hawks -2.0 the play.
New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks have seen a turn around in play as they look to extend their winning streak to four games at home. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and improve their record to 12-14 overall.
With Porzingis back in the lineup, the Mavericks are starting to develop the chemistry that they saw last year as he gets healthier. During the Mavericks losing streak, Doncic told reporters that it was due to his selfishness with the ball. A true leader takes responsibility for his team and improves by trusting his teammates. The Mavericks are far from the most talented team in the league and will look to improve their chemistry if they want to return to the playoffs. Doncic is leading the charge to improve his team behind his averages of 27.8 PPG, 9.3 APG and 8.7 RPG.
The Mavericks are in the middle of the back or at the back of the pack in nearly every category except turnovers which is their saving grace. They turn the ball over around 13 times a game which is good enough to be ranked 3rd the league.
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The Pelicans sit one spot behind the Mavericks in the Western Conference and are 6-4 in their last 10 games after coming off a 13 point loss to the Bulls. The loss was due to their lack of defense and sit 24th in the league in defensive rating.
Their offense on the other hand is ranked 8th in the league which goes to show that defense is still valuable despite teams moving towards offense. The Pelicans offense will get a favorable matchup against the Mavericks 26th ranked defense. The duo of Ingram and Williamson will certainly look to take advantage of their matchups on the floor. Top ranked defenses even have a hard time stopping this young duo. They are averaging 23.7 PPG, 4.6 APG, 5.5 RPG and 23.8 PPG, 2.9 APG, 7.0 RPG, respectively.
Offense isn’t their only advantage this game, the Pelicans are one of the best rebounding teams in the league ranking 6th and 2nd in offensive rebounding while the Mavericks rank 26th in rebouding.
The Mavericks are the -2.0 favorite at home. The Mavericks are the favorite due to their recent play and three game win streak. The Pelicans are clearly the better team and have several key advantages. The game might be close but the Pelicans should cover the +2.0.
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