Better than a Sit/Start: Week 1 Smash, Cash or Trash
It is Week 1 in the NFL, and it is time to set those fantasy lineups. You drafted the best possible team and now have decisions to make. Who are you going to smash? That is a no-brainer play. Who are you going to cash, giving it a little thought but knowing it feels right, and who is trash?
To clarify, the Smash Men are not your usual suspects (also an excellent movie I highly recommend). I mean, you aren’t ever going to sit the likes of Justin Jefferson, Patrick Mahomes, or Christian McCaffrey (if they are healthy), are you? And if you said yes, why are you playing this game? A smash is a player who could be on the all-star list but just misses it by this much.
The cash is a player who has an excellent match-up. He is good, but the match-up just might be better. And the trash, well, it speaks for itself. You have him on your roster, but today might not be the day.
And away we go…
Talking about smashing…if you are not listening to one of the best pick ’em props shows. I got you.
Quarterbacks to Smash
Tua Tagovailoa @ Los Angeles Chargers, Chargers -3, 51 o/u
There isn’t much not to like about this game except people’s hesitation to play Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa is so very close to being Tier 1. But fear of injury is getting in the way. I get it. But if he can get past it, so can we.
There is that pesky fact that the Chargers pass defense is good. And J.C. Jackson might be completely healthy, which makes them better than good. Last season, the defense ranked 10th in DVOA (-3.8), allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards (2,004), and the eighth-lowest completion percentage (61.4%).
And then there is the Week 14 matchup last season. Against the Chargers, Tagovailoa went 10-0f-28, 145 passing yards and one touchdown. He left the game with 12.6 fantasy points.
And all this might be pointing towards the opposite of smash (what is the opposite of smash?). But stay with me. The Dolphins are down to one healthy running back, and besides for all the talk of a run game in Miami, they only ran the ball 22.8 times a game last year, which was the second-lowest amount.
The point total suggests there are going to be points to put up. And did you know Tagovailoa was first in yards per attempt (8.9) and deep ball completion percentage (50%)? He was also second in red zone completion percentage (65.3%). And his wide receiving corps isn’t too shabby.
It is Week 1 of the 2023 season, smash Tagovailoa in this matchup.
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Geno Smith v Los Angeles Rams, Seahawks -4, 46.5 o/u
You can say it out loud: We are all just waiting for the Smith bubble to pop. And actually, it kind of did in the second meeting against the Rams last season.
In their first meeting last year, Smith threw for 367 yards and had three touchdowns and one interception. In the second meeting in Week 18, Smith had 213 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Such is life when you ride with Smith.
But this is now, and the Rams are projected to have one of the worst secondaries in the league (also one of the worst pass rushes Aaron Donald excepted—he can’t do it alone). Add to that the Seahawks added offensive weapons to help Smith Smash.
Running Backs to Smash
J.K. Dobbins v Houston Texans, Ravens -10, 43.5 o/u
Even with all the talk about the Ravens bulked-up passing game, I love this play. The Texans will be better (I believe in you, DeMeco Ryans). But you are asking a lot for them to be that better in Week 1.
Last season, the Texans allowed the most fantasy points per game (28.5), rushing yards (2,412), and touchdowns (22) to the running back position. And what everyone seems to forget is that they were 10th in passing yards allowed per game (209.3). That was fewer passing yards allowed than the San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, and >gulp< Pittsburgh Steelers. Not too shabby.
I say smash Dobbins in Week 1 and let Lamar Jackson get his at a later date.
Raheem Mostert v Los Angeles Chargers, Chargers -3, 51 o/u
I know what I said, but both things can be true. Tagovailoa and Mostert can smash in a game with 51 implied points total.
The Chargers are not good against the run. The Chargers haven’t been good against the run for the last two seasons. Last season, they gave up 145.8 rushing yards a game. They allowed 5.4 yards per carry.
And oh yeah, Mostert is the only fully healthy (*knock on wood*) Dolphins running back. So, volume alone makes him smash-worthy. It also doesn’t hurt that he had 42 targets and 31 receptions for 202 receiving yards last year. Smash it like Wreck it Ralph.
Wide Receivers to Smash
Chris Godwin @ Minnesota Vikings, Vikings -6, 45.5 o/u
The best thing the Vikings did this off-season was hire Brian Flores as their defensive coordinator. The Vikings’ secondary has Harrison Smith. Yes, they acquired Byron Murphy and Joejuan Williams. They drafted Mekhi Blackman, but it’s Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, people, and while they may eventually be good, going from where they were to Flores’ aggressive defense style might take a few games.
So, yes, this is more about the Vikings’ defense than the Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers offense. But we all know Mayfield is capable of that one game, and this could be it.
Those of y’ll who know me know I believe there is that one tier of tight ends, and the rest are tight ends. If you are looking for a maybe, potentially, probably smash tight end, check this out.
Quarterback to Cash
Sam Howell v Arizona Cardinals, Washington -7, 38 o/u
I am confused by the line on this game. The Cardinals are possibly the worst team in the NFL this season. They are trading, cutting, and giving away players like a fire sale.
Howell isn’t a smash because we have only seen him in one actual game (I refuse to count preseason…but he looked pretty good). In that one game last season, he had 19 pass attempts, 169 passing yards, one passing touchdown, 35 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown.
With new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy looking to distance himself from the shadow of Andy Reid, expect the Commanders to want to put up lots of points on the scoreboard.
I think Howell can be fantasy-relevant in this game. He is Week 1 cash because I am sure Vegas knows more than me, and the Commanders only being a touchdown favorite against the Cardinals is confusing.
Wide Receiver to Cash
Courtland Sutton v Las Vegas Raiders, Broncos -3.5, 44 o/u
The Vegas defense looked good in preseason, but didn’t almost everyone except Arizona? The pass-rushing duo of Max Crosby and Chandler Jones is excellent. This is especially true since we have no idea which Russell Wilson will show.
However, the Raiders did give up 20.9 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (33.4 DraftKings and 27.0 FanDuel) per game. And there is no Jerry Jeudy. And Sutton led the team in target share (23.1%) and red zone target share (31.1%) last season.
There is reason to believe that Sean Payton’s version of the Broncos will vastly differ from last year’s version. And with Javonte Williams maybe or maybe not on a pitch count, the passing game will be in play.
Just a side note: Williams was active in the short passing game in preseason. But we know how I feel about preseason.
Running Back to Cash
Brian Robinson/Antonio Gibson v Arizona Cardinals, Washington -7, 38 o/u
Going against this logic is my one act of rebellion (for the hour). I believe that the Commanders will be in full Command of this game. I believe that Howell will get his. And I also believe the running backs will get theirs.
Arizona is looking stupendously bad. Maybe they will surprise us, but until that happens, play everyone against them.
Quarterback to Trash
Kenny Pickett v San Francisco 49ers, 49ers -2.5, 41.5 o/u
Trash is slightly harsh. And it is only for this game. I firmly believe Pickett will have a good season (and that just isn’t the homer in me talking), just not this game.
The 49ers defense is legit, even without Nick Bosa, who is back.
That’s great. Last season, their pass rush win rate was 46% (that was fifth best). Their safeties, Talanoa Hufanga, and Tashaun Gipson, are pretty good too. Hufanga collected four interceptions and held quarterbacks to a 70.1 passer rating when targeted. Gipson did not allow a touchdown pass last season.
Pickett will have his day. It just won’t be this Sunday. (PSST, I also think the Steelers are winning this game…don’t tell anyone).
Wide Receiver to Trash
Jordan Addison v Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Vikings -6, 45.5 o/u
This isn’t me picking on a rookie. It is just me being cautious. Yes, the Buccaneers’ secondary ranked 19th in DVOA against the second and third receivers last year. But they were in the top 10 in the least amount of fantasy points to the wide receiver position, 22.4 (35.6 DraftKings and 28.7 FanDuel), and excuse me for believing most of those fantasy points will be going Justin Jefferson’s way.
And then there is T.J. Hockenson, who just got paid. And who commanded a hefty 20.5% target share last season.
For this Week 1, you might consider trashing Addison in standard but using him as a WR3 in PPR formats.
Running Backs to Trash
Kenneth Gainwell, Rashaad Penny, Boston Scott, D’Andre Swift @ New England Patriots, Eagles -4, 45.5 o/u
That is exactly how the Eagles’ depth chart for the running back position was listed two days ago. And then you can add in Jalen Hurts, who will get his.
Until we find out how this will play out, this is one running back by committee I would rather not run with.
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, DM me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. For more start/sits and DFS gold, watch the GoingFor2 Sunday show.
“Winning doesn’t always mean being first. Winning means you’re doing better than you’ve ever done before.”
~Bonnie Blair
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