Better than a Sit/Start: Week 2 Smash, Cash or Trash
Ah, Week 2 of the NFL 2023 season. I cannot be the only one thankful that Week 1 is behind us. Before we get into the nitty gritty that is Week 2, let’s see how I did in Week 1. I will let you know right now; it isn’t extremely pretty.
With the quarterbacks smashed the smash, Tua Tagovailoa finished as QB1 with 28.1 fantasy points, and Kenny Pickett was definite trash, finishing as QB20 with 11.7 fantasy points. But Geno Smith was a disappointment. He finished as QB23 with 9.1 fantasy points, and Sam Howell was meh but not a cash with 16.2 fantasy points (QB11).
As for the running backs, J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury. But Raheem Mostert finished as RB17 with 11 fantasy points. Maybe two things cannot happen simultaneously. Brian Robinson finished as RB14 (12.6 fantasy points), while Antonio Gibson wasn’t even trash with -0.1 fantasy points (RB91). And Kenneth Gainwell finished as RB25 (7.4 fantasy points).
Now, for the wide receivers (who broke my heart), it was Mike Evans and not Chris Godwin who had a day with Baker Mayfield. Godwin finished as WR40 with only 10.1 fantasy points. My trash and cash predictions flip-flopped. Courtland Sutton finished with 9.2 fantasy points, while the rookie Jordan Addison finished with 12.1.
It wasn’t hideous, but it wasn’t good enough for you. Let’s change that. Before we continue, did you miss the best pick ‘em show on YouTube? I got you.
Now, let’s get to our Week 2 fantasy smash, cash, and trash.
Smash Plays
QB Jared Goff v Seattle Seahawks, 47.5 o/u, Lions -5
Last week, the Seahawks defense had two quarterback hits and zero sacks. That is known to some as no pressure on the quarterback. The defense also surrendered the second most passing yards (334).
Meanwhile, Goff led the Lions to a victory over the reigning Super Bowl Champions. Goff attempted 35 passes for 253 passing yards and one touchdown.
But the most interesting fact is the home versus away splits for the Lions last year. Last year, Goff had 23 passing touchdowns at home versus six passing touchdowns away. His passing rate was 109.3 at home versus a 96 away. And this is the home opener for the undefeated Lions.
RB Rashaad White v Chicago Bears, 40.5 o/u, Buccaneers -2.5
I know last week, White broke my heart, too. He finished as RB20 with 4.9 fantasy points per game. Let Mayfield have this one.
Week 2 is White’s week (she says, hopefully). The Bears allowed the second most fantasy points to the running back position last week (30.5). They allowed one rushing touchdown and one receiving touchdown to the position. White can be utilized in both the run game and the receiving game. Last season, sharing time, he averaged 3.41 targets and 3.7 rushing yards per game.
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
This season, there is no Leonard Fournette to share time. The Buccaneers are at home, favored, and last week ran the ball 33 times. It’s only one week, but Chicago’s defense appeared to be a dumpster fire. It is the Buccaneers’ chance to put a little oil on that.
WR Mike Williams @ Tennessee Titans, 45.5 o/u, Chargers -3
Here is the story. Last season the Titans were phenomenal against the run and sucked against the pass. They were so bad. And now it seems not much has changed.
Last week, the Titans surrendered the second most fantasy points to the wide receiver position at 31.3, which is a lot considering that the Chargers gave up the most 51.3 (congratulations to all of y’ll who rostered Tyreek Hill).
Now the Chargers go to Tennessee and try their hand at this pass funnel defense—Kellen Moore’s offense against a defense that allowed Derek Carr to amass 305 passing yards on them.
Williams left the game last week but returned. He was still second in offensive snaps. Williams was second in targets (5) and third in receiving yards (45). Hopefully, he stays on the field for the entire game and smashes.
Cash Plays
QB Mac Jones v Miami Dolphins, 46.5 o/u, Dolphins -3.0
Last week, Jones attempted 54 passes. In the 2022 season, he averaged 31.57 passes. In Jones’ rookie year, he averaged 30.61 passes. And last week, in his first game in Bill O’Brien’s offense, he attempted 54 passes in a losing effort.
This week, the Patriots will play the Miami Dolphins, trying to win their first game of the season. This is the same Miami team that scored 36 points last week in a winning effort and whose quarterback passed for 466 yards.
In the Jones era, the Patriots are 0-11 when a team scores 25 points against them. Jones is going to have to throw the ball. Maybe not 54 times, but a lot. And this season, Jones has the weapons to support a viable passing game.
Kendrick Bourne had 11 targets. There were three receivers with seven targets and two receivers with six targets. Look for Jones and O’Brien’s offense to keep up with the high-flying offense of the Dolphins.
RB Javonte Williams v Washington Commanders, 38.5 o/u, Broncos -3.5
Last week, two running backs were on the field for the Denver Broncos, Williams and Samaje Perine. They were both on the field for 29 snaps. Williams’ rushing percentage was 45% to Perine’s 28%. Perine had a 14% target percentage, while Williams was 21%. Williams had 54.8% of the touches to Perine’s 38.7%.
Williams is the clear RB1 in the Denver backfield. Denver is an offense that doesn’t appear to want to run through Russell Wilson. The offensive line is built for a run game.
Last week, the Commanders allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. Let’s count on Sean Payton’s offense relying on the run game. The run game will make Williams not a sure bet and not the worst bet, but this bet.
WR Nico Collins v Indianapolis Colts, 39.5 o/u, Colts -1
This game is two rookie quarterbacks going against each other. The Texans did not score a touchdown last week. The Colts gave up two touchdowns and 162 yards to the wide receiver position.
Collins led the Texans with 11 targets and 80 receiving yards. Collins is in store for a positive touchdown regression. There is a chance that Collins will once again finish as WR28 with eight fantasy points.
Collins’ quarterback is playing behind the 29th-ranked offensive line. Right tackle George Fant injured his shoulder late in the game against the Baltimore Ravens. His replacement, Josh Jones, gave up six pressures.
So, Collins is balancing on the precipice of cash tittering on trash status.
Trash Plays
QB Zach Wilson @ New York Jets, 38.5 o/u, Cowboys -9
Wilson here is obvious, right? Playing against the New York Giants in week one, the Cowboys’ defense had seven sacks, two interceptions, and a defensive touchdown. The Cowboys held the Giants to 2.6 yards per play.
Wilson had the unfortunate luck of having to come in for Aaron Rodgers when he went down on the first series of the game. Wilson finished the game 14-of-21, 140 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Now playing behind Pro Football Focus’ 18th-ranked offensive line, a line that gave up 13 pressures on 26 dropbacks last week, Wilson is the man. The Jets’ offensive line also ranked 30th on pass-blocking efficiency.
Wilson hasn’t been good, and now he plays against a defense that will have him running for his life.
RB Kyren Williams v San Francisco 49ers, 44.5 o/u, 49ers -8.0
There is so much not to like here. First, are we sure it will be Williams and not Cam Akers as RB1 in the Rams backfield this week? Second, will it matter? Last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 49ers only allowed 41 total rushing yards. Najee Harris had 31 yards on six carries. Jaylen Warren had six yards on three carries, and Pickett had four yards on one carry.
The 49ers controlled the line of scrimmage with five sacks and nine quarterback hits.
In retrospect, this is more about the brick wall that calls itself the 49ers defense. Until someone (anyone) can cause a crack in that foundation, they will be a cautionary tale.
WR George Pickens v Cleveland Browns, 38.5 o/u, Browns -2.5
Diontae Johnson has an injured hamstring. Allen Robinson led the Steelers’ wide receivers last week (Allen Robinson) with eight targets, five receptions, and 64 yards.
Jim Schwartz is not playing around. Last week, he blitzed Joe Burrow on 53% of his dropbacks. Burrow averaged 2.6 yards per attempt. Ja’Marr Chase led the Bengals receivers with nine targets and five receptions for 39 receiving yards.
Will the Steelers’ offensive line withstand pressure? Last week, the offensive line gave up 23 pressures, and Pickett was sacked five times.
This week appears similar to the situation the Steelers encountered last week. That was trash.
“You fail all the time. But you aren’t a failure until you start blaming someone else.”—Bum Phillips
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
