Better than a Start/Sit: Smash, Cash or Trash – Week 4
Is there any better way to sum up last week’s absolute dumpster fire than having to watch and hear about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce ad nauseam? Talking about smashing things double entendre intended…ugh!
Let’s shake it off and discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly from last week’s smash, cash, and trash section. The good is also bad. Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill was 13-of-25 for 104 yards. So, if you trashed him, yeah, that’s good.
The bad was watching the league’s worst run defense hold Josh Jacobs to 62 yards on 17 carries. Jacobs averaged 3.6 yards per carry against the *checks the notes* 30th ranked defense on yards allowed (151.7). Don’t get me wrong, I am delighted as a Pittsburgh Steelers fan! As someone who predicted Jacobs to smash…push this button, please. And you continue to hold it as we discuss James Conner running up, down, and over the Dallas Cowboys. The only trash about that performance was my suggesting it would be trash and the Cowboys’ defense. Conner finished with 98 rushing yards, one receiving touchdown, and averaged seven yards per carry. Conner finished the week as RB6.
And now on to Week 4. First, let’s get you hooked up with some really good prop bets for the week.
Smash Plays
QB, Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears, 46.5 o/u, Broncos -3
Wilson isn’t the sexiest of picks, but we must admit this is one of the Better Thangs (obligatory Ciara reference). Seriously, Wilson has been better this year. He currently sits at QB8. It’s not like he gave up 70 points last week.
This week, he plays the 30th-ranked pass defense (allowing 285.7 passing yards per game) and a defense tied for third for the most passing touchdowns (7) allowed.
In addition to Patrick Mahomes smashing them, the Bears have allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 317 yards and a touchdown, and Jordan Love spanked them with 245 yards and three passing touchdowns. If not now, when Wilson?
Public Service Announcement: this game might be gross to watch. You can see it being either 3-3 or 45-54, I see no middle ground.
Embed from Getty ImagesRB, Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears v Denver Broncos, 46.5 o/u, Broncos -3
Same game, 99 Problems, and a defense ain’t one. The Broncos defense allowed De’Von Achane to run for 203 yards and two touchdowns. This happened while Raheem Mostert ran for 83 yards and three touchdowns. IN THE SAME GAME!
And it wasn’t just that game. The week before, Brian Robinson ran for 87 yards (averaging 4.8 ypc) and two touchdowns as the Broncos lost the lead and the game to the Washington Commanders.
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I have no idea what type of game script this game will offer. But Herbert has been on the field for 36.5%, 60.4%, and 54.9% of the offensive snaps. He has nine, seven, and seven rushing attempts but hasn’t accumulated more than 35 yards in any game. Is it Herbert, or is it the offensive scheme? Or maybe it is the rookie Roschon Johnson?
Johnson has been on the field for 39.2%, 41.5%, and 45% of the offensive snaps. He is slowly accumulating more touches than Herbert (five, four, and eight), so it could be him. But if recent history tells us anything, both should be able to get theirs against the Broncos defense.
WR, Tank Dell, Houston Texans v Pittsburgh Steelers, 42.5 o/u, Steelers -3
The Steelers appear to apply the “bend, don’t break” method for opposing wide receivers. Last week, Davante Adams accumulated 172 receiving yards and two touchdowns (and I know he is Davante Adams, but he was receiving passes from Jimmy Garoppolo, who might coincidently have been concussed).
In Week 1, Brandon Aiyuk went for 129 receiving yards and two touchdowns, while in a game that was absolutely offensive offensively, Amari Cooper managed 90 receiving yards.
And in case you haven’t noticed, the Houston Texans are slinging the ball. They are currently the seventh-ranked team in passing play percentage, with 63.77% of their offensive plays coming via the pass. The Texans have the sixth-most passing yards per game (271.0), and the beneficiary is rookie Dell.
Last week, Dell led the Texans receiving room with five receptions on seven targets. He finished with 145 yards and a touchdown. The week before, he led in targets with 10 while again seeing the end zone and finishing with 72 yards.
Dell’s time on the field has increased from 48.1% in Week 1 to 60.7% in Week 3. Per Pro Football Focus, Dell’s 1.50-second 10-yard split will beat the explosive-pass-play-cornerbacks of the Steelers. I mean, it’s not like everyone else hasn’t.
TE, Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles, 43.5 o/u, Eagles -8
First and foremost, monitor the status of Thomas ( I didn’t last week and suffered the consequences of my inaction). Secondly, the Eagles are generous to opposing tight ends. T.J. Hockenson found the end zone twice against them, and Hunter Henry scored a touchdown against them.
Thomas is as talented as both (well, at least Henry) and, if healthy, should find the end zone at least once against the Eagles.
Cash Plays
QB, Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers v Minnesota Vikings, 45.5 o/u, Vikings -4.5
34-of-58, 361 passing yards, and two touchdowns, my friends, were Dalton’s stat line from last week. While his 58 passing attempts are interesting (Bryce Young’s highest attempt was 38) and the two touchdowns tantalizing, facing the Minnesota Vikings defense is the cherry on top.
The Vikings have given up the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (26.7). Justin Herbert just threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns against them. And I’m not saying that Dalton is Herbert, but even Baker Mayfield managed two passing touchdowns on 173 passing yards against them.
RB, Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers, 45.5 o/u, Vikings -4.5
Oops, I did it again, same game but for different reasons. We are not the only ones who heard of the Vikings acquiring Cam Akers. After the news last week, Mattison, by far, had his best production of this very short season. Mattison averaged 4.7 yards per carry on his way to 93 rushing yards. He was also targeted seven times for five receptions and 32 receiving yards.
In consecutive weeks, the Panthers have allowed Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson to combine for 138 rushing yards, 46 receiving yards, and a touchdown. Taysom Hill rushed for 75 yards against them, and last week, Kenneth Walker collected 97 rushing yards and 59 receiving yards.
Hopefully, Mattison stays motivated and collects the fantasy points while he can.
WR, Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers, 48.5 o/u, Chargers -5.5
Adams is a cash for one reason and one reason only: we have no idea who will be under center for the Raiders.
Adams is Adams and will get his. But this would normally be a smash spot and is downgraded because of the quarterback uncertainty. Temper your expectations. Adams deserves so much better.
TE, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans v Cincinnati Bengals, 40.5 o/u, Bengals -2.5
Again, this smash spot is downgraded (and could go lower). The Bengals allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the tight end position (8.7). Tyler Higbee collected 71 yards on them, while Mark Andrews had 45 yards and a touchdown.
The problem is the Titans pass play percentage is 57.49%. And although Okonkwo is on the field for a 76.7% snap share, his 12.3% target share is less than ideal. What does promote optimism is his 80.7% route participation. Cash might be an overvaluation. Go in optimistic but retain that sense of realistic pessimism.
Trash
QB, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys v New England Patriots, 43.5 o/u, Cowboys -6.5
Prescott’s trash status is not an indictment of the Cowboys’ red zone inefficiencies, not entirely. In Week 2, the Cowboys were two-of-six in the red zone. Nobody cared because their defense was balling out.
Last week, the Cowboys were one-for-five in the red zone. Everyone cares because they lost to the Arizona Cardinals. Now they meet Bill Belichick, whose defense averages 0.7 passing touchdowns in three games.
Oh yeah, it is Ezekiel Elliott’s return. And forgive me for my cynicism, but Belichick allowing Elliott to run in for multiple touchdowns is firmly on my Bingo Card.
RB, Baltimore Ravens, Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns, 40.5 o/u, Browns -3
Divisional games are notoriously hard to script. Divisional games in the AFC North are impossible to predict. But here are two certain things: one, we have no idea who will be the primary RB1 for the Ravens, and two, you do not run on Jim Schwartz’s version of the Cleveland Browns.
Last week, the Browns’ defense held the Tennessee Titans’ offense to 94 total yards. The Titans averaged 2.1 yards per play. Derrick Henry rushed for 20 total yards. No running back has had more than 57 rushing yards against them. That list includes Najee Harris and Joe Mixon. Godspeed y’all.
WR, George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans, 42.5 o/u, Steelers -3.0
You might be able to run against the Texans, but you definitely cannot pass against them. According to Razzball ‘Slot v wide,’ the league average points for wide receivers is 35.1, with 11.4 going to the slot and 23.7 going to the wide.
The Texans are averaging 30.5, with 12.3 going to the slot and 18.2 going to wide. Last week, the Texans held Christian Kirk to 54 receiving yards (he did get a touchdown) and Calvin Ridley to 40.
Pickens has had 36, 127, and 75 receiving yards. This inconsistent output is a product of scheme, quarterback, and Pickens. So, betting all three get it right against the Texans doesn’t feel right.
TE, Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns, 40.5 o/u, Browns -3
I know, and you know that you aren’t going to trash Andrews. Consider this more of a ‘temper your expectations’ notification. According to the Football Database, the Browns allow an average of 0.3 fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Tight ends have averaged 8.7 yards against them and 2.3 receptions.
You have been warned.
“Success isn’t owned, it’s leased. And rent is due every day.”—J.J. Watt
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