Better than a Start/Sit: Week 3 Smash, Cash or Trash
It is Week 3 in the NFL and is already a M*A*S*H unit on the football field. Pretty soon, it will be the war on attrition for who you will suit up on your fantasy roster. But for this week, you do have choices. Some players are in an optimum smash position, and even with the multitude of injuries, there are players you will trash.
But before we start, let’s look at my good, bad, and very unsettling ugly suggestions from last week. I warn you this is not for the faint of heart—first, the ugly, hello Kyren Williams, welcome to the show, pal. My suggestion to trash Williams will haunt me until the next very ugly suggestion. Williams, against the San Francisco 49ers defense, finished as RB4 in standard and RB2 in PPR leagues! Are you kidding me!! Williams had 14 carries for 52 yards, and wait for it….wait for it…10 targets, six receptions, 48 yards, and a touchdown. So, my suggestion to trash him was the only thing that was trash.
The bad is yet another trash suggestion. Yes, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is trash. Yes, the offense scored one out of three touchdowns. But that one touchdown belonged to none other than George Pickens. Pickens finished the game with 10 targets, four receptions (four), 127 yards and one touchdown. His final fantasy score was 22.7. Yikes! The obsessive Steelers fan in me still doesn’t see the silver lining. The person who told you to trash Pickens (and who coincidently lost her redraft matchup because she, too, sat Pickens) can only wallow in how bad a decision that was.
Finally, the good, and I will make this a two-for (partly to make myself feel better). Nico Collins and Jared Goff emerged from Week 2 as top-six in their respective positions. Goff finished as QB6 in a losing effort, and Collins finished as WR4 in standard and WR5 in PPR. Whew!
And as Travis Kelce might be saying, let’s just shake it off and move on to Week 3. And what better way to start Week 3 is with the best damn Pick’em show in the multiverse.
Smash Plays
QB Kirk Cousins, Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings, 54.5 o/u, pk
You see, Cousins, with his recent (two games) performance, should be a smash play every week (for now). But some of us are slow to come around. So here are some details that may help (for this week). The Chargers are giving up the second most fantasy points to the quarterback position (24.1, thank you, Tua Tagovailoa), the most passing yards on the third most attempts (quarterbacks are 48-of-69, for 712 yards), and the third most passing touchdown. (That was a long sentence that Grammarly will ding me for)!
Cousins has 44 passing attempts in his last two games. Against Tampa Bay, it resulted in 344 yards, two passing touchdowns, and an interception. Against Philadelphia (in prime time), it resulted in 364 passing yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Just for some added incentive, according to Sharp Analytics, 90.7% of Minnesota’s yardage comes from passing, while the Chargers allowed a league-high 9.0 yards per passing attempt. And here is your public service announcement:
RB, Josh Jacobs, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders, 43.5 o/u, Raiders -2.5
Jacobs has been on the bad side of good since his return from his holdout. In Week 1 against the Denver Broncos, Jacobs averaged 2.5 yards per attempt. His longest run was for seven yards, and in his three targets, he had two receptions for 23 yards. In his Week 2 matchup against the Buffalo Bills, Jacobs had nine rushing attempts for -2 yards. He averaged -0.2 yards per carry. The slightly better news is that he had six targets collected, five for 51 yards.
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And now for this week’s best news: the Raiders play the Steelers. The Steelers’ defense is formidable. This is true. It is also true that they have given up the most fantasy points to the running back position (28.8) and have allowed the most rushing yards on the second-most rushing attempts. The Steelers have given up 333 rushing yards, allowing running backs to average 6.05 yards per attempt.
This would be cash if it were anyone else, but Jacobs has the talent. He missed all of the preseason. It was overly optimistic to think any of the players who missed preseason would bounce back to their fantasy-winning ways.
Jacobs should smash the advantage of playing a team, allowing an average of 6.05 rushing attempts. And don’t forget this game is inside, home field advantage, and the Raiders are favored (and that cannot possibly be because of Jimmy Garoppolo’s throwing prowess).
Embed from Getty ImagesWR, Zay Flowers, Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens, 45.5 o/u, Ravens -8
It will take a minute for the Todd Monken/Lamar Jackson experiment to marinate. (I’m beginning to think that this whole analysis is about patience, and I am here for it). But while it does, Flowers is emerging as WR1 in Baltimore.
Last week, he was on the field for a 77% snap share. That was the most for wide receivers and only behind Mark Andrews’ 79%. Flowers was on the receiving end of five targets with four receptions for 62 yards. He also had one rushing attempt for six yards.
Flowers hasn’t been making the top-10 list in fantasy points yet. That is due to his lack of touchdowns. A positive touchdown regression has to be coming.
Hello Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed four receiving touchdowns in two weeks (that’s tied for the most). They have also surrendered 41.1 fantasy points to the wide receiver position. That’s the most. Flowers’ talent will shine. The only wrinkle in this well-devised plan is Nelson Agholor.
Agholor has only been on the field for 38% of the offensive snaps. Last week, he had six targets, five receptions, and 63 yards. And he backed it up with one touchdown.
This offense isn’t potent enough to carry three fantasy-viable receivers. (Don’t forget about Andrews) Flowers is the talent, but Agholor lurks in the shadows.
TE, Hunter Henry, New England Patriots @ New York Jets, 36.5 o/u, Patriots -2.5
Friends, I have been shamed into picking tight ends, and I don’t shame easily…well apparently, I do.
Here it goes. Henry has the second most PPR points for tight ends through two weeks of NFL play. He is averaging 16.9 PPR fantasy points a game.
The New York Jets are giving up the fifth most fantasy points to the tight end, 9.2, and have allowed two touchdowns to the tight ends. This game is predicted to be a slow, ugly affair. While the Patriots are fourth in plays per game (74.5), the Jets prod along with 49.5 plays per game (31st). That’s their hope for winning this game.
Expect Jones to find Henry in the middle.
Cash
QB, Baker Mayfield, Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 46.5 o/u, Eagles -5.0
Do we dare to go back to the Mayfield well? Can we…dare we…should we? Yes. It is not an emphatic yes, but it is a yes…a hopeful yes.
The Eagles have played Cousins in prime time and Mac Jones. Now that we know of Cousins’ heroic exploits let us examine what Jones did against them.
Jones attempted 54 passes with 35 completions. He finished with 316 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.
In his two winning games, Mayfield had passed for 317 yards against the Chicago Bears and 173 yards against the Minnesota Vikings. More importantly, he has three touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The Eagles are adjusting to their new defensive coordinator. Adjusting to the tune of allowing the most fantasy points to the quarterback position (26.4), the second most yards, and the most passing attempts (680 yards and 98 passing attempts). In addition, they have given up seven passing touchdowns.
Mayfield is adapting to his new team and the weapons at his disposal. Mike Evans has been Mayfield’s favorite in the last two games. Last week, Evans and Chris Goodwin both had eight targets. Cade Otton had six targets, and Rachaad White had five.
Can Mayfield do it one more time?
RB, Kenneth Walker, Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks, 42.5 o/u, Seahawks -5.5
It is a game script that is beneficial to the run game. There is also the chance that D.K. Metcalf will miss time with an injury, which is also good for the run game.
Walker has been on the field for 63% and 61% of the offensive snaps. Those worried about Zach Charbonnet taking snaps away should note that he has been on the field for less than 27% of the offensive snaps.
In Week 1, Walker averaged 5.3 yards per carry on 12 rushing attempts, with no touchdowns. Last week, he averaged 2.5 yards per carry on 17 rushing attempts. He also had two touchdowns.
The Panthers have allowed four rushing touchdowns and 132.0 rushing yards per game. They have also allowed the second most fantasy points to the running back position.
WR, Elijah Moore, Amari Cooper, Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns, 39.5 o/u, Browns -3.0
Here is the rub. The Titans are giving up 35.0 fantasy points to the wide receiver position. They are giving up an average of 50.2 fantasy points to the position. According to Razzball’s slot versus wide, 22% of the points come from the slot and 78% from wide. Numerically speaking, that is 11.2 points to the slot and 39 points on average to the wide.
The problem is there is no typical slot or wide in Cleveland. They roam liberally. If you had to lay cash down, go with Cooper. In week 1, he tied for the team lead in targets with seven. Last week, Cooper led the team with 10 targets.
The Titans are a pass-funnel defense. The Browns aren’t a smash here because a) we aren’t sure what wide receiver will smash, and b) the Browns are only averaging 34.5 passing attempts per game, with Watson’s completion percentage at 55.1%.
TE, Logan Thomas, Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders, 43.5 o/u, Bills -6.5
In standard leagues, Thomas is currently TE3 and TE8 in PPR. According to Football Database, the Bills are particularly stingy to the tight end position, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the fewest targets.
The Bills have only faced Tyler Conklin receiving passes from Zach Wilson and the Las Vegas Raiders combination of Austin Hooper and rookie Michael Mayer.
Thomas should do much better than any of those three.
Trash
QB, Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns, 39.5 o/u, Browns -3.0
This may surprise you, but Tannehill finished as QB15 last season. He was 20-of-24 for 246 yards and one touchdown. That was a bounce-back from Week 1 when Tannehill went 16-of-34 for 198 yards and three interceptions.
The Titans average the seventh-fewest passing attempts per game, 29.0. It’s not personal, but both quarterbacks in this game should be trashed until further notice.
RB, James Conner, Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals, 43.5 o/u, Cowboys -11.5
Conner has been serviceable, finishing as RB11 and RB15 in standard and PPR fantasy leagues. Last week against the New York Giants, Conner had 106 rushing yards and one touchdown on 23 carries.
The Cowboys have played Saquon Barkley and Breece Hall. The Cowboys have surrendered 2.0 fantasy points, zero rushing touchdowns, and 44.5 rushing yards per game.
And for those holding out for Conner’s passing acumen. The Cowboys have not allowed a running back to have a receiving touchdown and only allowed 11.5 receiving yards to the running back position.
WR, Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins, Dolphins -6.5
The Miami Dolphins have not surrendered a touchdown to the wide receiver position. I know it is only two weeks, but in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers in the 36-34 win, no Charger receiver had a touchdown. I know! Austin Ekeler had a receiving touchdown, and Justin Herbert ran for a touchdown, but no receiver had a touchdown.
Add to that the Dolphins only allow 10.0 fantasy points per game to the position, which isn’t good for Jeudy. In his return to the field last week, Jeudy had five targets and three receptions for 25 yards.
TE, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns, 39.5, Browns. -3.0
Guess how many fantasy points tight ends have against the Browns’ defense. Okay, I will tell you 0.5. That should be enough to have you proceed with caution.
“To lose patience is to lose the battle.”—Mahatma Gandhi
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