Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Friday (1/19/18)
Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Friday, January 18
While my picks on Thursday only hit 50% of the time (3-1 on Totals and 1-3 on Sides) they were still able to achieve a +7.4 units overall thanks to a 5-star win on the Magic and three winning Under bets on the Totals. Friday features a nice seven-game slate of NBA action where we keep riding the Dogs and Unders for the most part. The Totals are pretty tight tonight so scale back on the money in play there.
Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.
In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.
I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1 pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.
DFS Advice
Teams in Pace Up matchups:
- Spurs
- Heat
- Nuggets
- Jazz
- Pacers
Teams in Pace Down matchups:
- Raptors
- Nets
- Suns
- Knicks
- Lakers
Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Nuggets
- Pistons
- Lakers
- Pacers
Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Kings
- Knicks
- Spurs
- Jazz
Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:
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- Pistons
- Spurs
- Knicks
Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:
- Nuggets
- Pacers
- Kings
- Jazz
General Overview:
- Cash Game targets:
- Nuggets (Pace Up, High-Scoring)
- Pacers (Pace Up, High-Scoring)
- Heat (Pace Up)
- GPP targets:
- Pistons (High-Scoring, More Productive)
- Spurs (Pace Up, More Productive)
- Lakers (High-Scoring)
- Fade teams:
- Jazz (Low-Scoring, Less Productive)
- Kings (Low-Scoring, Less Productive)
Bovada Betting Tips
Today’s plays
Sides
- Pistons +1 (4-star)
- Nets +3 (3-star)
- Suns +9 (3-star)
- Spurs +6 (2-star)
- Knicks +5.5 (2-star)
- Lakers +2.5 (2-star)
- Grizzlies -6 (1-star)
Totals
- Suns/Nuggets Under 219 (3-star)
- Kings/Grizzlies Under 203 (2-star)
- Pacers/Lakers Under 215 (2-star)
- Knicks/Jazz Under 203 (1-star)
- Spurs/Raptors Under 206 (0-star)
- Heat/Nets Under 208 (0-star)
- Wizards/Pistons Over 208 (0-star)
Previous Results
| Sides | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 4 | 2 | 0 | 66.7% | +9.0 |
| 4-star | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +12.0 |
| 3-star | 4 | 3 | 0 | 57.1% | +2.1 |
| 2-star | 4 | 3 | 0 | 57.1% | +1.4 |
| 1-star | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +0.9 |
| 0-star | 1 | 7 | 0 | 12.5% | |
| Overall | 18 | 16 | 0 | 52.9% | +25.4 |
| Totals | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 2 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% | +10.0 |
| 4-star | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +3.6 |
| 3-star | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +9.0 |
| 2-star | 6 | 3 | 0 | 66.7% | +5.4 |
| 1-star | 5 | 5 | 1 | 50.0% | -0.5 |
| 0-star | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | |
| Overall | 20 | 12 | 2 | 62.5% | +27.5 |
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