Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Friday (2/9/18)
Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Friday, February 9
I didn’t have time to publish an article on Thursday but my Wednesday results were solid with a 3-2 ATS record on both Sides and Totals for net +2.8 units on the day. Friday’s nine-game NBA slate looks like it could be a fun one with a mix of Dogs and Favorites to go along with a mix of Overs and Unders. The DFS slate should be interesting with a lot of value options due to most of the players traded yesterday not expected to play.
Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vegas lines in their analysis.
In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.
I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.
DFS Advice
Teams in Pace Up matchups:
- Pistons
- Timberwolves
- Nuggets
- Jazz
Teams in Pace Down matchups:
- Clippers
- Bulls
- Rockets
- Hornets
Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Sixers
- Rockets
- Hawks
- Jazz
- Pistons
Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Bucks
- Heat
- Pacers
- Kings
- Hornets
Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:
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- Jazz
- Hawks
- Hornets
- Bucks
- Pelicans
Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:
- Timberwolves
- Trail Blazers
- Rockets
- Pistons
- Clippers
General Overview:
- Cash Game targets:
- Jazz (Pace Up, High Scoring, More Productive)
- Pistons (Pace Up, High Scoring)
- Cavaliers – since they will be shorthanded
- GPP targets
- Sixers (High Scoring)
- Hawks (High Scoring, More Productive)
- Potential Fades:
- Trail Blazers (Less Productive)
- Clippers (Pace Down, Less Productive)
Bovada Betting Tips
Today’s plays
Sides
- Bulls +7.5 (5-star)
- Hawks +2.5 (4-star)
- Kings +5 (4-star)
- Pelicans +5.5 (1-star)
- Bucks +1.5 (1-star)
- Nuggets +8.5 (1-star)
- Jazz -6 (1-star)
- Clippers +4 (0-star)
- Celtics -4.5 (0-star)
Totals
- Clippers/Pistons Under 220 (4-star)
- Nuggets/Rockets Under 222 (3-star)
- Hornets/Jazz Over 205 (3-star)
- Timberwolves/Bulls Under 217 (2-star)
- Trail Blazers/Kings Under 208 (2-star)
- Pelicans/Sixers Over 219 (0-star)
- Cavaliers/Hawks Over 216 (0-star)
- Pacers/Celtics Under 204 (0-star)
- Bucks/Heat Over 199 (0-star)
Previous Results
| Sides | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 13 | 9 | 0 | 59.1% | +15.5 |
| 4-star | 11 | 4 | 0 | 73.3% | +26.4 |
| 3-star | 11 | 7 | 0 | 61.1% | +9.9 |
| 2-star | 14 | 12 | 0 | 53.8% | +1.6 |
| 1-star | 11 | 10 | 2 | 52.4% | 0.0 |
| 0-star | 10 | 18 | 0 | 35.7% | |
| Overall | 70 | 60 | 2 | 53.8% | +53.4 |
| Totals | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 3 | 2 | 3 | 60.0% | +4.0 |
| 4-star | 4 | 3 | 1 | 57.1% | +2.8 |
| 3-star | 11 | 5 | 1 | 68.8% | +16.5 |
| 2-star | 21 | 9 | 0 | 70.0% | +22.2 |
| 1-star | 25 | 17 | 4 | 59.5% | +6.3 |
| 0-star | 11 | 11 | 1 | 50.0% | |
| Overall | 75 | 47 | 10 | 61.5% | +51.8 |
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