Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Monday (1/15/18)

Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice

Welcome to a new column here at GoingFor2 call “Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice” which will take a look at the NBA main slate each weekday (or as often as I can get it written) and provide a high-level (macro) look at the matchups from both a betting and DFS perspective.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Angle” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Bets” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Cavaliers (plus they have been more up-tempo in their last five games)

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Warriors
• Clippers
• Rockets
• Cavaliers

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Pacers
• Clippers

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Thunder
• Jazz

General Overview:

• Just follow the hot red color to find the teams to target on Monday’s nights small 4-game slate. Focus most of your DFS roster on the Warriors/Cavaliers and Rockets/Clippers games.
• Consider rostering more players from these teams that could achieve increased production compared to their averages:
  • Clippers (High-scoring, More Productive and fasted pace over last 5 games)
  • Cavaliers (High-scoring, Pace up and have increased their pace over last 5 games)
• Beware of players from these teams who may have decreased production compared to their averages:
  • Jazz (Less Productive)
  • Thunder (Less Productive)

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Pacers +4.5 (4-star)
• Clippers +4.5 (4-star)
• Kings +11.5 (3-star)
• Cavaliers +6 (2-star)

Totals

• Warriors/Cavaliers Under 234 (5-star)
• Kings/Thunder Under 209 (3-star)
• Pacers/Jazz Under 207 (2-star)
• Rockets/Clippers Under 228 (2-star)

Previous Results

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