Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Monday (1/22/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Monday, Jan 22

I was able to close out a very good week of picks last Friday by going a combined 12-2 ATS including 6-1 on both Sides and Totals for a nice +14.5 units on the night. This has brought my overall record on Sides up to 24-17 (58.5%) including a 23-10 mark (69.7%) on Sides of 1-star or higher. For Totals, my overall record is now 26-13-2 (66.7%) including a 16-4-1 mark (80%) on Totals of at least 2-stars or higher.

If this streak continues I might have to open up my own Bovada account through the GoingFor2 links and actually start placing these bets.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Kings
• Jazz
• Heat
• Grizzlies
• Bucks
• Mavericks
• Timberwolves

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• Hornets
• Hawks
• Rockets
• Sixers
• Suns
• Wizards
• Clippers

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Pelicans
• Rockets
• Clippers
• Hornets
• Bucks

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Kings
• Heat
• Jazz
• Blazers
• Sixers

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Hawks
• Grizzlies
• Mavericks
• Heat

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Pelicans
• Bulls
• Wizards
• Rockets
• Nuggets

General Overview:

• Cash Game targets:
  • Bucks (Pace Up, High Scoring)
  • Heat (Pace Up, More Productive)
  • Timberwolves (Pace Up)
• GPP targets:
  • Mavericks (Pace Up, More Productive)
  • Grizzlies (Pace Up, More Productive)
• Potential Fades:
  • Wizards (Pace Down, Less Productive)
  • Sixers (Pace Down, Low Scoring)
  • Nuggets (Less Productive)

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Hawks +2.5 (4-star)
• Mavericks +2.5 (4-star)
• Heat +11 (3-star)
• Grizzlies +3.5 (3-star)
• Kings +10 (1-star)
• Bulls +6.5 (1-star)
• Blazers +3 (1-star)
• Suns +5 (0-star)
• Clippers -1.5 (0-star)

Totals

• Bulls/Pelicans Under 227 (5-star)
• Wizards/Mavericks Under 213 (2-star)
• Blazers/Nuggets Under 211 (2-star)
• Timberwolves/Clippers Under 220 (2-star)
• Kings/Hornets Under 210 (1-star)
• Jazz/Hawks Over 205 (1-star)
• Heat/Rockets Under 213 (1-star)
• Sixers/Grizzlies Over 205 (1-star)
• Suns/Bucks Under 214 (1-star)

Previous Results

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