Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Monday (1/29/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Monday, Jan 29

Last week finished on a slight down note with my Sides picks going 3-7 ATS (-9.7 units), however, my Totals had a solid night with a 6-2-2 ATS mark (+8.8 units) for a near break-even for the day. Monday features a smallish six-game NBA slate with some tight lines, especially on the Totals.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Timberwolves
• Grizzlies
• Bucks

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• Hawks
• Suns
• Sixers

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Timberwolves
• Pacers
• Hawks
• Grizzlies
• Bucks

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Heat
• Mavericks
• Suns
• Celtics
• Nuggets

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Hawks
• Suns
• Sixers
• Mavericks

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Heat
• Timberwolves
• Celtics

General Overview:

• Cash Game targets:
  • Timberwolves (Pace Up, High Scoring)
  • Bucks (Pace Up, High Scoring)
  • Pacers (High Scoring)
• GPP targets
  • Grizzlies (Pace Up, High Scoring)
  • Hawks (High Scoring, More Productive)
• Potential Fades:
  • Heat (Low Scoring, Less Productive)
  • Celtics (Low Scoring, Less Productive)

 

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Hawks +6.5 (5-star)
• Mavericks +2 (4-star)
• Suns +8 (2-star)
• Sixers +4 (2-star)
• Hornets +3.5 (0-star)
• Nuggets -1 (0-star)

Totals

• Hornets/Pacers Under 212 (1-star)
• Timberwolves/Hawks Under 216 (1-star)
• Suns/Grizzlies Over 206 (1-star)
• Heat/Mavericks Under 197 (1-star)
• Celtics/Nuggets Under 206 (1-star)
• Sixers/Bucks Over 210 (0-star)

 

Previous Results

Sides	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	7	6	0	53.8%	+2.0
4-star	6	2	0	75.0%	+15.2
3-star	8	4	0	66.7%	+10.8
2-star	11	5	0	68.8%	+11.0
1-star	8	7	1	53.3%	+0.3
0-star	3	10	0	23.1%
Overall	43	34	1	55.8%	+39.3

 

Totals	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	2	1	3	66.7%	+4.5
4-star	4	2	0	66.7%	+7.2
3-star	7	3	1	70.0%	+11.1
2-star	12	7	0	63.2%	+8.6
1-star	12	11	3	52.2%	-0.1
0-star	6	4	0	60.0%
Overall	43	28	7	60.6%	+31.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

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