Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Monday (2/5/18)
Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Monday, February 5
My picks didn’t fare too well on Friday with a 4-5 mark ATS on Sides (-12.2 units) and a 3-5-1 record ATS on Totals (+1.7 units). I’m not going to dwell on the past but instead look to the future with Monday’s seven-game slate in the Association. There are a lot of close spreads on Monday which don’t offer too many significant spots to pounce on but there are a few games that still stand out.
Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.
In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.
I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.
DFS Advice
Teams in Pace Up matchups:
- Heat
- Jazz
- Kings
- Mavericks
Teams in Pace Down matchups:
- Magic
- Pelicans
- Bulls
- Clippers
Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Nuggets
- Pacers
- Pelicans
- Jazz
Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Mavericks
- Magic
- Bulls
- Blazers
Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:
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- Magic
- Pacers
Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:
- Clippers
- Nuggets
General Overview:
- Cash Game targets:
- Jazz (Pace Up, High Scoring)
- Pacers (High Scoring, More Productive)
- GPP targets
- Heat (Pace Up)
- Magic (More Productive)
- Potential Fades:
- Clippers (Pace Down, Less Productive)
Bovada Betting Tips
Today’s plays
Sides
- Magic +8.5 (4-star)
- Hornets +5 (2-star)
- Pacers -2 (1-star)
- Mavericks +7 (1-star)
- Blazers +3 (0-star)
- Pelicans -1 (0-star)
- Kings -2.5 (0-star)
Totals
- Mavericks/Clippers Under 213 (3-star)
- Blazers/Pistons Under 211 (2-star)
- Hornets/Nuggets Under 218 (2-star)
- Bulls/Kings Under 211 (2-star)
- Magic/Heat Over 204 (1-star)
- Jazz/Pelicans Under 216 (1-star)
- Wizards/Pacers Under 213 (0-star)
Previous Results
| Sides | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 11 | 7 | 0 | 61.1% | +16.5 |
| 4-star | 8 | 4 | 0 | 66.7% | +14.4 |
| 3-star | 9 | 7 | 0 | 56.3% | +3.9 |
| 2-star | 14 | 8 | 0 | 63.6% | +10.4 |
| 1-star | 10 | 9 | 2 | 52.6% | +0.1 |
| 0-star | 9 | 14 | 0 | 39.1% | |
| Overall | 61 | 49 | 2 | 55.5% | +45.3 |
| Totals | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 2 | 1 | 3 | 66.7% | +4.5 |
| 4-star | 4 | 3 | 1 | 57.1% | +2.8 |
| 3-star | 9 | 4 | 1 | 69.2% | +13.8 |
| 2-star | 16 | 8 | 0 | 66.7% | +14.4 |
| 1-star | 22 | 16 | 4 | 57.9% | +4.4 |
| 0-star | 10 | 8 | 0 | 55.6% | |
| Overall | 63 | 40 | 9 | 61.2% | +39.9 |
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