Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Thursday (1/18/18)

 

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Thursday, Jan 18

My hot streak this week continued with a strong 7-3 ATS record on my Sides picks on Wednesday and a solid 5-3-2 ATS on Totals. Thursday night features a small four-game slate of NBA action but it should be a fun one with a few marquee teams and plenty of high-priced stud players to consider for DFS.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Cavaliers
• Celtics
• Timberwolves

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• Magic
• Sixers
• Rockets

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Cavaliers
• Rockets
• Magic

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Sixers
• Pacers
• Blazers

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Sixers
• Celtics
• Magic

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Cavaliers
• Rockets
• Blazers

General Overview:

• Cash game options:
  • Cavaliers (Pace Up, High-Scoring)
  • Timberwolves (Pace Up)
• Consider rostering more players from these teams that could achieve increased production compared to their averages (GPP options):
  • Celtics (Pace Up, More Productive)
  • Magic (High-Scoring, More Productive)
• Beware of players from these teams who may have decreased production compared to their averages:
  • Sixers (Pace Down, Low-Scoring)
  • Blazers (Low-Scoring, Less Productive)

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Magic +10.5 (5-star)
• Pacers +4.5 (3-star)
• Timberwolves +5 (2-star)
• Celtics -5 (0-star)

Totals

• Timberwolves/Rockets Under 224 (4-star)
• Magic/Cavaliers Under 228 (3-star)
• Pacers/Blazers Under 214 (2-star)
• Sixers/Celtics Over 208 (1-star)

Previous Results

Sides	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	3	2	0	60.0%	+4.0
4-star	3	0	0	100.0%	+12.0
3-star	4	2	0	66.7%	+5.4
2-star	4	2	0	66.7%	+3.6
1-star	2	1	0	66.7%	+0.9
0-star	1	6	0	14.3%
Overall	17	13	0	56.7%	+25.9

 

Totals	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	2	0	1	100.0%	+10.0
4-star	1	1	0	50.0%	-0.4
3-star	2	0	0	100.0%	+6.0
2-star	5	3	0	62.5%	+3.4
1-star	5	4	1	55.6%	+0.6
0-star	2	3	0	40.0%
Overall	17	11	2	60.7%	+19.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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