Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Thursday (2/1/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – February 1

My picks came through with a big day on Wednesday finishing 5-2-1 ATS (+7.7 units) on Sides and 6-2 ATS (+4.8 units) on Totals. We just have a small five-game NBA slate on Thursday night and I’m going to stay away from the Grizzlies/Pistons game with so many variable between injuries in Memphis and new players adapting to the team in Detroit.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Spurs
• Grizzlies

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• Rockets
• Pistons

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Wizards
• Raptors
• Timberwolves

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Grizzlies
• Rockets
• Pistons

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Wizards
• Grizzlies
• Bucks

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Thunder
• Rockets
• Nuggets

General Overview:

• Cash Game targets:
  • Wizards (High Scoring, More Productive)
  • Timberwolves (High Scoring)
  • Raptors (High Scoring)
• GPP targets
  • Bucks (More Productive)
  • Spurs (Pace Up)
• Potential Fades:
  • Nuggets (Less Productive)
  • Rockets (Pace Down, Low Scoring, Less Productive)

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Wizards +3.5 (4-star)
• Spurs +2 (3-star)
• Bucks +5.5 (3-star)
• Nuggets +1 (2-star)

Totals

• Thunder/Nuggets Under 217 (4-star)
• Rockets/Spurs Under 209 (2-star)
• Bucks/Timberwolves Under 212 (2-star)
• Raptors/Wizards Over 214 (0-star)

Previous Results

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