Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Thursday (3/8/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Thursday, March 8

Another mixed bag yesterday as my Totals were on fire posting a 5-2 ATS record (+8.3 units), however, my Sides were atrocious putting up a goose egg on seven plays (-12.1 units). At this point, I’d recommend fading all of my 1 and 2-star Sides plays if you are following along and just focus on the 3-star and up Sides picks along with the all of the Totals picks. Just a small five-game NBA slate on Thursday, so getting my article out a little earlier than usual.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vegas lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1 pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Heat
• Thunder
• Spurs

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• Sixers
• Suns
• Warriors

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Thunder
• Warriors
• Hornets
• Suns

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Sixers
• Spurs
• Heat
• Timberwolves

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Nets
• Heat
• Timberwolves

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Thunder
• Hornets
• Warriors

General Overview:

• Cash Game targets:
  • Thunder (Pace Up, High Scoring)
  • Warriors (High Scoring)
  • Suns (High Scoring)
• GPP targets
  • Heat (Pace Up, More Productive)
  • Hornets (High Scoring)
• Potential Fades:
  • Spurs (Low Scoring)
  • Sixers (Pace Down, Low Scoring)

 

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Nets +7 (5-star)
• Heat +1 (3-star)
• Suns +10 (3-star)
• Timberwolves +2.5 (1-star)
• Spurs +11 (1-star)

Totals

• Sixers/Heat Over 209 (2-star)
• Nets/Hornets Over 217 (1-star)
• Suns/Thunder Under 229 (1-star)

 

Previous Results

Sides	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	21	16	0	56.8%	17.0
4-star	13	12	1	52.0%	-0.8
3-star	20	12	0	62.5%	20.4
2-star	19	24	0	44.2%	-14.8
1-star	18	30	2	37.5%	-15.0
Overall	91	94	3	49.2%	6.8

 

Totals	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	5	6	3	45.5%	-8.0
4-star	12	8	1	60.0%	12.8
3-star	20	13	2	60.6%	17.1
2-star	34	21	0	61.8%	21.8
1-star	38	27	4	58.5%	8.3
Overall	109	75	10	59.2%	52.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

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