Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Tuesday (1/30/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Tuesday, January 30

Another near break-even day on Monday with the Side performing poorly (1- 5 ATS) and the Total performing well (4-2 ATS). Tuesday features a big nine-game NBA slate and with both the Clippers and Pistons on the slate following their blockbuster trade yesterday I’m going to bypass their games from a betting perspective but both are recommended targets for DFS with limited players suiting up.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Knicks
• Timberwolves
• Pistons
• Kings
• Jazz

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• Nets
• Raptors
• Cavaliers
• Pelicans
• Warriors

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Rockets
• Raptors
• Warriors
• Knicks
• Pelicans

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Nuggets
• Spurs
• Kings
• Nets
• Timberwolves

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Jazz
• Pistons
• Magic

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Cavaliers
• Blazers
• Thunder
• Rockets
• Warriors

General Overview:

• Cash Game targets:
  • Pistons (Pace Up, More Productive)
  • Knicks (Pace Up, High Scoring)
  • Rockets (High Scoring)
• GPP targets
  • Magic (More Productive)
  • Clippers
• Potential Fades:
  • Cavaliers (Pace Down, Less Productive)

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Jazz +8.5 (5-star)
• Magic +13.5 (5-star)
• Wizards +4 (4-star)
• Nuggets +7.5 (2-star)
• Nets +5.5 (1-star)
• Timberwolves +6 (0-star)
• Kings +8 (0-star)

Totals

• Kings/Pelicans Under 215 (3-star)
• Timberwolves/Raptors Under 219 (2-star)
• Thunder/Wizards Under 216 (1-star)
• Nets/Knicks Under 215 (1-star)
• Magic/Rockets Under 221 (1-star)
• Nuggets/Spurs Under 201 (1-star)
• Warriors/Jazz Over 215 (0-star)

Previous Results

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