Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Tuesday (2/27/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Tuesday, February 27

In the first day of picks following my adjustment to place more emphasis on the last five games data, my picks performed well on Monday, especially the Totals which went 6-2 ATS for +10.7 units. The Sides selection results were more mixed with just a 4-5 ATS record but thanks to hitting on two out of three 5-star picks ended up +0.8 units. Tuesday’s six-game NBA slate features three double-digit favorites which as me going with some Dogs along with a mix of Overs and Unders.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vegas lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1 pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Heat
• Nuggets
• Kings

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• Sixers
• Clippers
• Blazers

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Nuggets
• Clippers
• Hornets
• Cavaliers

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Kings
• Bulls
• Nets
• Sixers

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Heat
• Clippers
• Nuggets

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Cavaliers
• Nets
• Blazers

General Overview:

• Cash Game targets:
  • Nuggets (Pace Up, High Scoring, More Productive)
  • Clippers (High Scoring, More Productive)
• GPP targets
  • Heat (Pace Up, More Productive)
• Potential Fades:
  • Nets (Low Scoring, Less Productive)
  • Blazers (Pace Down, Less Productive)

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Nets +11 (3-star)
• Heat PK (3-star)
• Kings +11.5 (3-star)
• Wizards +3.5 (1-star)

Totals

• Nets/Cavaliers Under 221 (5-star)
• Clippers/Nuggets Over 230 (3-star)
• Bulls/Hornets Under 217 (2-star)
• Sixers/Heat Over 206 (1-star)
• Kings/Blazers Under 209 (1-star)

Previous Results

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