Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Tuesday (2/6/18)
Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Tuesday, February 6
I hit on the right picks on Monday’s slate. My Sides only managed to go 3-4 ATS but were +1.7 units, while the Totals posted a solid 4-2-1 ATS mark for +4.7 units. Tuesday features an eight-game slate of NBA action that offers up some strong recommendations on both the Sides (Go Dogs!) and the Totals where there is a mix of Over and Under plays. The DFS slate looks like you should put most of your attention on three games.
Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.
In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.
I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1 pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.
DFS Advice
Teams in Pace Up matchups:
- Grizzlies
- Celtics
- Wizards
- Thunder
Teams in Pace Down matchups:
- Hawks
- Raptors
- Sixers
- Warriors
Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Lakers
- Warriors
- Magic
- Rockets
- Cavaliers
Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Bucks
- Knicks
- Grizzlies
- Hawks
- Celtics
Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:
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- Wizards
- Suns
- Nets
- Magic
- Lakers
Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:
- Warriors
- Cavaliers
- Rockets
- Bucks
- Thunder
General Overview:
- Cash Game targets:
- Thunder (Pace Up)
- Warriors (High Scoring)
- Lakers (High Scoring)
- GPP targets
- Wizards (Pace Up, More Productive)
- Suns (More Productive)
- Magic (High Scoring, More Productive)
- Potential Fades:
- Bucks (Low Scoring, Less Productive)
Bovada Betting Tips
Today’s plays
Sides
- Magic +6.5 (5-star)
- Nets +11 (5-star)
- Wizards +6.5 (5-star)
- Thunder +9.5 (3-star)
- Knicks +2 (2-star)
- Suns +8 (2-star)
- Grizzlies +3 (0-star)
- Celtics +4.5 (0-star)
Totals
- Thunder/Warriors Under 231 (5-star)
- Cavaliers/Magic Under 225 (3-star)
- Suns/Lakers Over 217 (3-star)
- Bucks/Knicks Under 206 (2-star)
- Wizards/Sixers Over 212 (1-star)
- Rockets/Nets Over 216 (0-star)
- Grizzlies/Hawks Over 205 (0-star)
- Celtics/Raptors Over 208 (0-star)
Previous Results
| Sides | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 11 | 7 | 0 | 61.1% | +16.5 |
| 4-star | 9 | 4 | 0 | 69.2% | +18.4 |
| 3-star | 9 | 7 | 0 | 56.3% | +3.9 |
| 2-star | 14 | 9 | 0 | 60.9% | +8.2 |
| 1-star | 11 | 10 | 2 | 52.4% | 0.0 |
| 0-star | 10 | 16 | 0 | 38.5% | |
| Overall | 64 | 53 | 2 | 54.7% | +47.0 |
| Totals | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 2 | 1 | 3 | 66.7% | +4.5 |
| 4-star | 4 | 3 | 1 | 57.1% | +2.8 |
| 3-star | 10 | 4 | 1 | 71.4% | +16.8 |
| 2-star | 18 | 9 | 0 | 66.7% | +16.2 |
| 1-star | 23 | 17 | 4 | 57.5% | +4.3 |
| 0-star | 10 | 8 | 1 | 55.6% | |
| Overall | 67 | 42 | 10 | 61.5% | +44.6 |
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