Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Wednesday (1/17/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Date

I had a second straight good night with the Dogs on Tuesday with all three of my 3 and 4-star selections coming up winners with the points. Today there are actually a couple of favorites on the board but it looks like an “under” kind of day. I have added a “Units” column to my results grid that helps show that my higher star plays have performed well so far which has led to +18.7 units on Sides wagers and +13 units on Totals wagers through my first four days of articles. Let’s see if we can keep it going on Wednesday’s big 10-game slate.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1 pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Pistons
• Spurs
• Grizzlies
• Bulls
• Thunder

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• Raptors
• Nets
• Knicks
• Warriors
• Lakers

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Warriors
• Hawks
• Pelicans
• Raptors
• Clippers

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Heat
• Knicks
• Jazz
• Kings
• Bucks

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Nets
• Pistons
• Heat
• Hawks

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Warriors
• Thunder
• Nuggets
• Bulls
• Jazz

General Overview:

• Cash Game Teams to Target:
  • Warriors
  • Bulls
  • Pelicans
  • Hawks
  • Hornets
  • Wizards
• Consider rostering more players from these teams that could achieve increased production compared to their averages (Good GPP teams):
  • Hawks (High-Scoring, More Productive)
  • Pistons (Pace Up, More Productive)
• Beware of players from these teams who may have decreased production compared to their averages:
  • Nuggets (B2B, Less Productive)
  • Jazz (Low-Scoring, Less Productive)

 

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Nets +7 (5-star)
• Lakers +9.5 (5-star)
• Kings +4.5 (3-star)
• Hawks +2.5 (3-star)
• Heat +4 (2-star)
• Bulls +8 (2-star)
• Clippers -2.5 (2-star)
• Hornets -1.5 (1-star)
• Pistons +7.5 (1-star)
• Knicks +2 (0-star)

Totals

• Warriors/Bulls Under 231 (5-star)
• Nuggets/Clippers Under 222 (5-star)
• Lakers/Thunder Under 217 (4-star)
• Jazz/Kings Under 204 (2-star)
• Wizards/Hornets Under 214 (1-star)
• Spurs/Nets Under 207 (1-star)
• Pelicans/Hawks Under 222 (1-star)
• Heat/Bucks Under 202 (1-star)
• Knicks/Grizzlies Under 204 (1-star)
• Pistons/Raptors Under 213 (0-star)

 

Previous Results

Sides	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	2	1	0	66.7%	+4.5
4-star	3	0	0	100.0%	+12.0
3-star	3	1	0	75.0%	+5.7
2-star	1	2	0	33.3%	-2.4
1-star	0	1	0	0.0%	-1.1
0-star	1	5	0	16.7%
Overall	10	10	0	50.0%	+18.7

 

Totals	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	1	0	0	100.0%	+5.0
4-star	0	1	0	0.0%	-4.4
3-star	2	0	0	100.0%	+6.0
2-star	5	2	0	71.4%	+5.6
1-star	3	2	0	60.0%	+0.8
0-star	1	3	0	25.0%
Overall	12	8	0	60.0%	+13.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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