Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Wednesday (1/31/18)
Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Wednesday, Jan 31
My picks on Tuesday were “lit” (the kids still say that, right?) going 6-1 ATS on Sides (+14.9 units). The Totals finished 4-2-1 ATS but still netted a small loss (-0.4 units). Dogs and Unders continue to lead the way for me most nights but Wednesday night’s eight-game slate has a lot of Overs to consider.
Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.
In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.
I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.
DFS Advice
Teams in Pace Up matchups:
- Grizzlies
- Heat
- Mavericks
Teams in Pace Down matchups:
- Pacers
- Cavaliers
- Suns
Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Magic
- Lakers
- Blazers
- Sixers
Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Grizzlies
- Knicks
- Bulls
- Heat
Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:
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- Nets
- Magic
- Hawks
- Knicks
Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:
- Heat
- Cavaliers
- Mavericks
- Bulls
General Overview:
- Cash Game targets:
- Magic (High Scoring, More Productive)
- Lakers (High Scoring)
- Sixers (High Scoring)
- GPP targets
- Nets (More Productive)
- Hawks (More Productive)
- Potential Fades:
- Bulls (Low Scoring, Less Productive)
- Heat (Low Scoring, Less Productive)
Bovada Betting Tips
Today’s plays
Sides
- Nets +7 (5-star)
- Magic +2.5 (3-star)
- Hawks +3 (3-star)
- Suns +3 (2-star)
- Grizzlies +7 (1-star)
- Cavaliers -2 (1-star)
- Knicks +5.5 (0-star)
- Blazers -7 (0-star)
Totals
- Heat/Cavaliers Under 215 (3-star)
- Bulls/Blazers Under 213 (2-star)
- Lakers/Magic Over 217 (1-star)
- Sixers/Nets Over 211 (1-star)
- Hornets/Hawks Over 211 (1-star)
- Mavericks/Suns Under 210 (1-star)
- Grizzlies/Pacers Over 203 (0-star)
- Knicks/Celtics Over 206 (0-star)
Previous Results
| Sides | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 10 | 6 | 0 | 62.5% | +17.0 |
| 4-star | 7 | 3 | 0 | 70.0% | +14.8 |
| 3-star | 8 | 4 | 0 | 66.7% | +10.8 |
| 2-star | 12 | 7 | 0 | 63.2% | +8.6 |
| 1-star | 8 | 8 | 1 | 50.0% | -0.8 |
| 0-star | 5 | 12 | 0 | 29.4% | |
| Overall | 50 | 40 | 1 | 55.6% | +50.4 |
| Totals | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 2 | 1 | 3 | 66.7% | +4.5 |
| 4-star | 4 | 2 | 0 | 66.7% | +7.2 |
| 3-star | 7 | 4 | 1 | 63.6% | +7.8 |
| 2-star | 13 | 7 | 0 | 65.0% | +10.6 |
| 1-star | 18 | 13 | 4 | 58.1% | +3.7 |
| 0-star | 7 | 5 | 0 | 58.3% | |
| Overall | 51 | 32 | 8 | 61.4% | +33.8 |
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