Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Wednesday (2/7/18)
Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Wednesday, February 7
The right picks performed well last night with +3.1 units on Sides despite a 3-5 ATS record. The Totals did even better with a 5-3 ATS mark for +7.7 units. With the good night, I am now over 100 total units to the positive in less than a month of doing this. Not too shabby, maybe I should actually head over to Bovada and start placing these bets.
Note that I’m nervous about some of my underdog picks on Wednesday’s six-game slate so you may want to proceed with caution despite the strong conviction from the number of stars my model recommends.
Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.
In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.
I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.
DFS Advice
Teams in Pace Up matchups:
- Pistons
- Heat
- Pacers
- Timberwolves
- Spurs
Teams in Pace Down matchups:
- Nets
- Rockets
- Pelicans
- Cavaliers
- Suns
Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Pelicans
- Pistons
- Pacers
- Cavaliers
- Timberwolves
Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
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- Grizzlies
- Nets
- Jazz
- Suns
- Spurs
Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:
- Suns
- Grizzlies
- Nets
Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:
- Timberwolves
- Rockets
- Pelicans
- Cavaliers
General Overview:
- Cash Game targets:
- Timberwolves (Pace Up, High Scoring)
- Pistons (Pace Up, High Scoring)
- Pacers (Pace Up, High Scoring)
- GPP targets
- Heat (Pace Up)
- Pelicans (High Scoring)
- Potential Fades:
- Cavaliers (Pace Down, Less Productive)
- Rockets (Pace Down, Less Productive
Bovada Betting Tips
Today’s plays
Sides
- Suns +9.5 (5-star)
- Cavaliers +4.5 (4-star)
- Grizzlies +7 (4-star)
- Nets +9.5 (3-star)
- Heat +5.5 (2-star)
- Pacers +3.5 (2-star)
Totals
- Timberwolves/Cavaliers Under 224 (5-star)
- Rockets/Heat Under 212 (2-star)
- Pacers/Pelicans Under 221 (2-star)
- Spurs/Suns Over 203 (2-star)
- Nets/Pistons Over 209 (1-star)
- Jazz/Grizzlies Over 201 (0-star)
Previous Results
| Sides | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 13 | 8 | 0 | 61.9% | +21.0 |
| 4-star | 9 | 4 | 0 | 69.2% | +18.4 |
| 3-star | 10 | 7 | 0 | 58.8% | +6.9 |
| 2-star | 14 | 11 | 0 | 56.0% | +3.8 |
| 1-star | 11 | 10 | 2 | 52.4% | 0.0 |
| 0-star | 10 | 18 | 0 | 35.7% | |
| Overall | 67 | 58 | 2 | 53.6% | +50.1 |
| Totals | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 3 | 1 | 3 | 75.0% | +9.5 |
| 4-star | 4 | 3 | 1 | 57.1% | +2.8 |
| 3-star | 11 | 5 | 1 | 68.8% | +16.5 |
| 2-star | 19 | 9 | 0 | 67.9% | +18.2 |
| 1-star | 24 | 17 | 4 | 58.5% | +5.3 |
| 0-star | 11 | 10 | 1 | 52.4% | |
| Overall | 72 | 45 | 10 | 61.5% | +52.3 |
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