Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Wednesday (3/7/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Wednesday, March 7

Tuesday’s Totals picks did NOT go well with a 2-5 ATS record (-9.1 units). Fortunately, my Sides were solid with a +2.4 units despite a 3-3-1 ATS record. Hopefully, Wednesday’s picks will provide a turnaround as my model seems to strongly prefer the Unders on the seven-game slate.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vegas lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Grizzlies
• Bucks
• Pistons
• Kings

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• Bulls
• Rockets
• Raptors
• Pelicans

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Nuggets
• Lakers
• Pelicans
• Cavaliers
• Kings

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Jazz
• Pistons
• Pacers
• Bucks
• Grizzlies

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• None

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Pistons
• Jazz
• Raptors
• Magic
• Rockets

General Overview:

• Cash Game targets:
  • Nuggets (High Scoring)
  • Lakers (High Scoring)
  • Magic
• GPP targets
  • Bucks (Pace Up)
  • Kings (High Scoring)
• Potential Fades:
  • Jazz (Low Scoring, Less Productive)
  • Pistons (Low Scoring, Less Productive)

 

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Pacers +1.5 (2-star)
• Grizzlies +3.5 (2-star)
• Bucks +6.5 (2-star)
• Kings +5.5 (2-star)
• Raptors -6 (1-star)
• Nuggets -2.5 (1-star)
• Lakers -7 (1-star)

Totals

• Raptors/Pistons Under 213 (5-star)
• Jazz/Pacers Under 202 (4-star)
• Magic/Lakers Under 225 (4-star)
• Rockets/Bucks Under 215 (3-star)
• Cavaliers/Nuggets Under 230 (3-star)
• Grizzlies/Bulls Under 211 (2-star)
• Pelicans/Kings Under 224 (2-star)

 

Previous Results

Sides	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	21	16	0	56.8%	+17.0
4-star	13	12	1	52.0%	-0.8
3-star	20	12	0	62.5%	+20.4
2-star	19	20	0	48.7%	-6.0
1-star	18	27	2	40.0%	-11.7
Overall	91	87	3	51.1%	+18.9

 

Totals	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	5	5	3	50.0%	-2.5
4-star	10	8	1	55.6%	+4.8
3-star	18	13	2	58.1%	+11.1
2-star	33	20	0	62.3%	+22.0
1-star	38	27	4	58.5%	+8.3
Overall	104	73	10	58.8%	+43.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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