Bovada Week 15 Betting Tips
After taking a few weeks off from giving my betting tips, I’m back. I’m currently 15-4 in my picks and I’m looking to keep my hot streak going this week with four games I like. Also, new to the betting advice columns, we are now sponsored by Bovada. If you sign up using the banner below, you will get a 50 percent “welcome bonus” match on your first deposit.
Let’s take a look at the four games I like for this week…
L.A. Rams (+2) @ Seattle Seahawks (-2)
The Rams are the second highest scoring team in the league (30.5 ppg) next to only the Philadelphia Eagles (31.1). They have a top 10 passing offense and are tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns. And they have a kicker that makes 50-plus yard field goals look routine. In short, they are a good offense that can beat you in multiple ways.
On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks defense hasn’t been very good over the last four weeks, giving up 257 passing and 107 rushing yards per game. Their once vaunted defense is banged up. Cornerback Richard Sherman is out for the year, their do-everything safety Kam Chancellor is out, linebacker Bobby Wagner is questionable and linebacker K.J. Wright is doubtful. That is a lot of key pieces to their defense that will be missing when they meet up with the Rams on Sunday.
The Rams also have a pretty good defense too, at least when it comes to getting to the quarterback. They are tied for third in the league with 40 sacks, only the Steelers and Jaguars have more. Russell Wilson has been sacked the ninth most times (30) this season, and if it wasn’t for his uncanny ability to avoid sacks, he would likely lead the league in this category.
You take all that and the Rams are still two-point dogs? The Seattle “12-man” is getting way too much credit here. Pick: Rams plus the points
Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Buffalo Bills (-3)
The Miami Dolphins are coming off the biggest upset this season, defeating the Patriots on Monday night. Thier running back Kenyan Drake looked like the real deal, breaking off chunk yardage plays in both the run and pass game. Jay Cutler looked like a competent QB and the Dolphins defense showed up to play.
Over the last four weeks, the Bills are the fifth-worst run defense and are coming off a game in which they allowed 97-year-old Frank Gore to rush for 130 yards. The Bills will be unable to stop the run leaving Cutler to hand the ball off thus limiting his chances for the big turnover that he is known for.
On the other side, the Dolphins are the fifth-best run defense over the last four weeks, and the Bills are a run-first team. If the Dolphins can force Bills QB, Tyrod Taylor, to beat them through the air, while also limiting their mistake-prone QB to minimum blunders, the Dolphins will go into Buffalo and win this game outright. The oddsmakers have them as a 3-point dog. Pick: Dolphins plus the points
New England Patriots (-3) @ Pittsburg Steelers (+3)
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The Patriots got embarrassed on national TV last Monday night. There is no other way to say it, they were completely dominated until about there were about six minutes left in the game, and it was too late by then. They will be going into Pittsburg angry and focused — and that’s a bad thing if you are a Steelers fan.
Since 2001, Bill Belichick is 38-11 (.776) in the game immediately following a loss. In other words, they are really hard to beat after a loss and the winner of this game will likely win home-field advantage in the AFC.
I don’t have a lot of stats to give you as to why I think the Patriots cover the spread, other than the history of the Patriots following a loss. It’s supposed to be cold and rainy on Sunday in Pittsburg, but both teams are equipped to handle that type of weather. This is strictly a gut call. Pick: Patriots minus the points
Tennessee Titans (+2) @ San Francisco 49ers (-2)
This will mark the first time in nearly three seasons that the 49ers have been favored in a game. The Titans are currently the 5th seed in the AFC, but they haven’t look very good over the last three weeks despite winning two of those three. Marcus Mariota hasn’t gone over 200 yards passing in his last three games and he has eight interceptions in his last four.
The 49ers appear to be a good matchup for him to bounce back until you look at the numbers a little closer. Over the last four weeks, the 49ers are giving up the second-fewest rushing yard and third fewest passing yards, and haven’t allowed a running back to score a touchdown in that span (Russell Wilson has the only rushing touchdown).
This also marks Jimmy Garoppolo’s home start. Despite the 49ers only having three wins on the season, the 49er faithful have something to be excited about and they will be out in full-force on Sunday. Having won 3 of their last five and the thought that they may have found their franchise QB, the 49ers will be motivated and hungry to play the spoiler role. Pick: 49ers minus the points
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