Breaking Down NFL Week One’s Baffling Bets

This Sunday has four games with a spread of less than three points. Let’s see if we can’t figure out which way to go so you can spice up those bets!

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Commanders

I correctly predicted the Jaguars’ first win last year and I’ll do it again here, Week One in Washington. The underdogs do face a hearty run defense even with Chase Young still absent, but the Doug Peterson led Jaguars will be substantially better this season.

The most compelling factor of this game is Carson Wentz. He’s just not very good. Apart from Terry McLaurin, Wentz doesn’t have the most promising receiving options Week One, either. Logan Thomas is still questionable and running back J.D. McKissick could pick up some receiving slack. Antonio Gibson might prove everyone wrong with a chip on his shoulder, but no one wants to trust this contest to the Commanders’ run game. Wentz finished last season 25^th in completion percentage. At least he will be starting with an improvement to the pass protection of his offensive line. 

The outlook for Jacksonville, on the other hand, is positive. Everything about their team suggests hope, after bolstering their wide receivers, offensive line, and defense in the offseason. Two promising and (reportedly) healthy running backs is a substantial difference this season as well. While Christian Kirk has a formidable matchup against Washington’s defensive backs running from the slot, Marvin Jones Jr. can smoke William Jackson with ease. Trevor Lawrence should improve leaps and bounds this season, as many of his rookie failings were attributed to poor team leadership. Peterson recently likened him to Brett Favre. Post training camp and preseasons reports are confident in Lawrence’s maturity and him being elected team captain, especially after an abysmal rookie campaign, is assuring. 

I’m taking the (2.5) points here and possibly even the money line on Jacksonville but I won’t be touching the O/U (43.5) on this one.

Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers

This one will be quick. I’m surprised at how narrow the spread is in this contest. Panthers should be more than 1.5-point favorites, but I suppose Cleveland’s defense is still commanding that much respect even against Carolina’s home field advantage.

Player for player offensively, Carolina outshines except at the tight end position; granted the contest is close between Amari Cooper and DJ Moore (I put more stock in Moore because of his slight upgrade at quarterback over Cooper). Both teams had salient positional changes over the offseason. But the real difference maker here is obviously Christian McCaffery. No one expects this game to be a shootout, it will be won on the ground. The Panthers’ defensive front is every bit as intimidating as the Browns’. The thing is, defensive fronts, even the strongest, have rarely stopped healthy McCaffery in the past. Oh, and one more thing. This is the ultimate revenge game for Baker Mayfield and even though Carolina’s DB’s are capable, if he was ever motivated to ball out, it’s now. 

Carolina covers the spread here and I might consider taking the under on this matchup (41.5).

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

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Another great upset opportunity lies in this divisional contest. The Vikings look explosive this season on paper and the Packers appear iffy at best. This will be an intense game!

Do you remember the last time you saw Aaron Rodgers play football? Man, that was ugly. How about Kirk Cousins, do you remember the last time you saw him play football? It was beautiful. How about the last time Kirk Cousins played against Green Bay? It was an impressive game from both quarterbacks, but Minnesota emerged victorious. And Cousins gets his home field against Green Bay with all those same playmakers, while Rodgers’ motley crew is much different. Despite a quick and stealthy secondary, the Packers are going to struggle against Minnesota’s skilled receivers. 

While we’re on memories, think back to that last Packer’s playoff game when Rodgers was sacked five times. His offensive line still isn’t in the greatest shape. How well, then, will Green Bay be able to run the ball? Minnesota’s defensive line will be scary if it lives up to expectation. Dalvin Cook has the advantage over Green Bay’s running back duo, in my opinion. My reason being, I think the Vikings are going to score quickly and often, and I just don’t know if Green Bay is going to able to catch up on the ground. 

The Vikings triumph here. I’d take the spread for them (-1.5) as well. I don’t love the O/U (47) here, but I might play around with the over if I were feeling lucky Sunday morning. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

This is the hardest game to call of the week. But I’m feeling revenge, I’m feeling youth, and I’m feeling the crowd will prevail. 

A replica of last year’s opener for these two teams, the Cowboy’s lost that one on some wonky footwork from their kicker. We can expect explosive performances from CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper who outmatch their rival defensive backs and even rookie Jalen Tolbert has the opportunity for some impressive production because Dak Prescott will be utilizing every receiving option he has while dealing with this overwhelming run defense. 

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Dallas’ defense allowed the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns last season and had the most interceptions. While the front line took a punch with the loss of Randy Gregory, one is hoping for an intense return of Micah Parsons. The Cowboys’ secondary remains primarily the same and the pressure generated by that pass rush could force the aging Tom Brady into some interesting situations. Leonard Fournette is a beast and the things are looking like both Brady’s star receivers will start Sunday so this is still going to be a tough matchup. 

I will be taking Dallas with points (2.5) here but I’m not gambling with a 50.5 O/U; this game could just as easily be a defensive, field goal scoring show as it could be a shootout. 

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