Breaking Down the Fantasy Relevance of the AFC North Offenses
Breaking Down the Fantasy Relevancy of the AFC North
The AFC North is rapidly becoming the dysfunctional offensive division for the NFL. From the calls for the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinators head (by the fans) to the outrageous contract to quarterback Deshaun Watson to the complete breakdown between team and quarterback in Baltimore.
Long known for their defensive prowess, the North can’t even count on that anymore. The
Still, except for one team, they remain steadfast in their run-first, let’s bruise mentality. But will they overcome the dysfunction and put some fantasy-relevant players on the field for 2023?
Statistically Speaking
| Team | Rush Att/G | Pass Att/G | Plays/G | Points/G |
| Baltimore Ravens | #6th 31.2 | #28th 28.7 | #19th 62.1 | #20th 20.4 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | #25th 24.6 | #6th 37.8 | #9th 65.3 | #7th 25.7 |
| Cleveland Browns | #5th 31.3 | #21st 31.8 | #6th 65.6 | #17th 21.2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | #10th 29.4 | #16th 33.6 | #10th 65.2 | #26th 18.1 |
Baltimore Ravens- Offensive Coordinator, Todd Monken
The Ravens have a new offensive coordinator after Greg Roman decided to retire.
The new coordinator Todd Monken has spent the previous three years as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at the University of Georgia.
He does come with NFL experience. From 2016-2018, he called plays in Tampa Bay, with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. In those three years, his offenses ranked 16th, third, and fourth in pass attempts.
In 2019 he was calling plays in Cleveland. Running back Nick Chubb finished second in rushing yards (1494) and added eight touchdowns. Quarterback Baker Mayfield had a single-season career high in passing yards (3827) with 22 touchdowns.
Monken’s ability to adapt his offensive plays calling to his players gives fantasy hope, depending on who his players are when the 2023 season begins.
Free Agency
It all depends on Lamar Jackson, right?
And right now, it isn’t looking too promising. The Ravens placed a nonexclusive franchise tag on Jackson on March 7. Jackson reportedly requested a trade on March 2.
If Jackson signs with another team, the Ravens could receive two first-round picks as compensation. The draft capital is meaningful, but their only substantial free agent signing to date is wide receiver Nelson Agholor.
For context, the Ravens wide receivers had 10 receptions on throws of 20 or more yards last season. That was the second-fewest in the league.
Since 2019 the Ravens’ wide receivers have totaled the fewest receiving yards (1242) in the league.
Agholor is there to stretch the field. Over the last three seasons, he has gained 20 or more yards on 25.9% of his receptions. Which makes him a good field stretcher but not a WR1.
Fantasy Relevance
Almost everything hangs on Jackson’s decision.
Devin Duvernay was WR58 in fantasy last season. That was the highest fantasy producer in the wide receiver room for the Ravens. He played in 14 games and was on the receiving end of 49 targets with 37 receptions and 407 receiving yards. He had seven red zone targets and three touchdowns.
Running back JK Dobbins had the highest fantasy output for the sixth most rushing attempts team, and he was RB48 in standard fantasy leagues. He played in eight games and had 92 rushing attempts with 520 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.
The best fantasy-relevant player in Baltimore remains the same. It is the tight end, Mark Andrews. Andrews played in 15 games. He saw 113 targets with a 29% target share. He finished the season with 73 receptions (third-most for NFL for tight ends), 847 yards (third-most for NFL tight ends), and five total touchdowns, eighth most in NFL. Andrews finished his truncated season as TE5.
The Ravens currently hold five picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
- Round 1, Pick 22
- Round 3, Pick 86
- Round 4, Pick 124
- Round 5, Pick 157
- Round 6, Pick 199
Cincinnati Bengals-Offensive Coordinator, Brian Callahan
Brian Callahan has been the offensive coordinator for the Bengals since 2019.
The Bengals season was a tale of two halves (this is a reoccurring theme in the AFC North). From Weeks 1-8, the Bengals ranked 22nd in EPA (expected points added). After Week 8, they ranked second in EPA and won five consecutive games. And most of the success can be attributed to the offense’s transition from an outside zone-oriented scheme to a shotgun-based spread. The latter is a scheme quarterback Joe Burrow has been familiar with since his days at LSU.
The distinction was real.
The Bengals nearly doubled their designed run rate out of the shotgun from 22.4& before Week 8 to 42.3% after Week 9. The team went from last in the explosive run rate before Week 9 (3.8%) to a tie for 11th after Week 9 (9.3%).
After Week 9, the Bengals ranked third in receiving yards by a running back (289) with an average of 10.32 yards per reception. When Ja’Marr Chase went out for three games, the team’s success rate on targets of 10-20 yards went from 60.9% (8th best) to 64% (4th best). (Chase was out Weeks 8-12)
But the team that was 25th in rushing attempts was ranked fifth in rushing success out of the 11 personnel (51.8%) and seventh when facing eight or fewer in the box (47.9%).
In fantasy production, Joe Mixon was RB10 in PPR leagues and RB13 in standard leagues, averaging 12 fantasy points in standard leagues and 16 fantasy points in PPR formats.
Free Agency
The Bengals lost running back Samaje Perine and tight end Hayden Hurst. They acquired tight end Irv Smith Jr. and resigned running back Trayveon Williams.
The Bengals currently have seven selections in the 2023 NFL Draft.
- Round 1, Pick 28
- Round 2, Pick 60
- Round 3, Pick 92
- Round 4, Pick 131
- Round 5, Pick 163
- Round 6, Pick 206
- Round 7, Pick 246
Fantasy Relevance
There are still the whispered innuendoes regarding running back Mixon. But even if he stays, you must acknowledge his regression last season. He had 82 fewer carries than the prior season. He was 25th in EPA per rush and 30th in runs of 10 yards or more. And he evaded tackles on only 10.9% of his carries.
Mixon somewhat saved his fantasy value when Burrow went to the intermediate throws. Mixon was seventh in targets for running backs (70) and added two receiving touchdowns.
Keep an eye on Mixon’s status. Even so, Williams could hold sneaky RB2 status.
Smith is a wait-and-see. See if he can remain healthy and stay on the field.
Last season in 14 games, Hurst had a 14.6% target share with 70 targets in Cincinnati. He finished as TE21 in PPR formats. In his last season with the Bengals, 2021 CJ Uzomah finished with a 12.3% target share and 63 targets. He finished as TE19 in PPR formats.
Smith (if he can remain healthy) should see top-20 tight-end fantasy production in PPR formats.
Cleveland Browns-Offensive Coordinator, Alex Van Pelt
Alex Van Pelt has been the offensive coordinator in Cleveland since 2020. This year he will also add quarterbacks coach to his title.
SI’s Albert Breer has suggested that Cleveland will refit its offense to Deshaun Watson’s strengths this season. “With more shotgun and spread concepts to get Watson playing fast and back in his comfort zone.”
This would leave behind the under-center wide zone scheme that head coach Kevin Stefanski has utilized since he came to Cleveland.
Last season in his six games, Watson had a 58.2% completion percentage and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. (In his last full season playing, 2020, Watson had a 70.2% completion percentage and averaged 8.9 yards per attempt).
Some of his inept play will be attributed to his year off. But his stats were erratic for the six weeks he did play. His yards per attempt improved, while his pass attempts and completion percentage went from 54.5% to 48.4% to 65.5% on any given Sunday.
While they boast a top-five running back in Nick Chubb, the Browns’ fortunes depend on the 230 million-dollar man.
Free Agency
The Browns traded for wide receiver Elijah Moore, Added wide receiver Marquise Goodwin and tight end Jordan Akins.
The Browns have eight picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
- Round 3, Pick 74 (from the New York Jets)
- Round 3, Pick 98 (compensatory pick)
- Round 4, Pick 111
- Round 4, Pick 126 (from Minnesota)
- Round 5, Pick 142 (from Los Angeles Rams)
- Round 5, Pick 144
- Round 6, Pick 190
- Round 7, Pick 229
Fantasy Relevance
Akins has familiarity with Watson. When they last played together, Akins collected 37 receptions for 403 yards.
Goodwin hasn’t had more than 27 receptions or 400 receiving yards since 2017.
Moore will be WR3 behind Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and maybe even Akins.
It remains to be seen if Watson has shaken off the rust and the Cleveland offense becomes vertical.
Pittsburgh Steelers-Offensive Coordinator, Matt Canada
In Canada’s last two seasons as the Steeler’s offensive coordinator, the offense has ranked 23rd.
The offense last season was 26th in scoring, 24th in passing, and 23rd in red zone efficiency. They were, however, seventh in third-down efficiency.
Over the season’s second half, quarterback Kenny Pickett and the run game showed improvement.
Pickett threw two touchdowns and eight interceptions in his first five games. After the Week 9 bye, he threw five touchdowns and one interception.
But the offense only had 29 touchdowns in 17 games. Only the Indianapolis Colts had fewer touchdowns.
Still, Najee Harris improved from averaging 45 yards a game to 74 yards a game after Week 9. And the run game finished with a season average of 4.2 yards per carry, up from last year’s 28th finish of 3.8 yards per carry.
This is Canada’s last season on his contract.
Free Agency
On the offensive side of the ball, the Steelers have been relatively quiet in free agency. They resigned tight end Zach Gentry, who played 50% of the offensive snaps last season. But it is mostly seen as a special team asset.
The Steelers have seven picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
- Round 1, Pick 17
- Round 2, Pick 32 (from Chicago)
- Round 2, Pick 49
- Round 3, Pick 80
- Round 4, Pick 120
- Round 7, Pick 234
- Round 7, Pick 241 (from Minnesota by way of Denver)
Fantasy Relevance
Gentry is mainly a blocking tight end. His 78% snaps on special teams aren’t helping your fantasy fortunes.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
