Breaking Down the Fantasy Relevance of the AFC West Offenses

Regarding the offense, the AFC West should be a fantasy player’s dream. It houses the Lombardi Trophy and is the home of last year’s QB1, RB1, WR2, and TE1 in fantasy football.

Some substantial moves in the division could alter its fantasy relevance in the upcoming season. A new head coach, two new offensive coordinators, and one mainstay quarterback will no longer be hanging around. But will the shift be just a ripple or seismic?

Of course, we cannot predict the future. But let’s see how the teams looked statistically last season and what may hopefully happen this season.

Kansas City Chiefs, Offensive Coordinator, Matt Nagy

It is only right, to begin with the team who won the Super Bowl last season. The Chiefs had a statistically good season, both team-wise and individuals.

As a team, they were:

• First in passing yards per game: 288.9.
• First in first downs per game: 23.8
• First in points per game: 29.2
• Second in red zone scoring percentage: 71.08%

They will begin this season with a new offensive coordinator. Nagy was promoted from senior offensive assistant to offensive coordinator once Eric Bieniemy left for the same position in Washington.

It is still head coach Andy Reid’s offense. A West Coast base offense that relies on stacked formations and a quick game to get the ball into the playmakers’ hands. Of course, the ball is almost always in the playmakers’ hands as long as Patrick Mahomes is under center.

Mahomes finished the season as QB1 in fantasy points. Mahomes finished averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game. He threw for 5250 yards. That was the most passing yards in his career and the fourth most in a single season in NFL history. He also had a league-high 41 passing touchdowns. In his first season without Tyreek Hill, Mahomes did alright.

Speaking of no Hill, tight end Travis Kelce helped ease the loss. Kelce finished the season as TE1 in both standard and PPR formats. In standard formats, Kelce averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game. In PPR, he averaged 18.6. Kelce had career highs in touchdowns (12) and receptions (110), and his 1338 receiving yards were the fourth most all-time by a tight end in NFL history.

Mahomes averaged 5.9 yards per carry on 60 attempts. Running back Isiah Pacheco averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 170 carries. You aren’t going to accuse Mahomes of being a dual-threat quarterback. His 358 rushing yards were the second most in his career. But you aren’t going to mistake the Chiefs for being a run-first team.

The Chiefs were 20^th  in rushing yards per game (115.7). Jerick McKinnon was RB20 in PPR leagues and RB24 in standard leagues. Pacheco was RB34 in standard and RB37 in PPR formats.

Kansas City 2023 Draft Picks:

Round 1, Pick 31: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Defensive End

Round 2, Pick 55 (from Detroit via Minnesota): Rashee Rice, Wide Receiver

Round 3, Pick 92: Wanya Morris, Offensive Tackle

Round 4, Pick 119: Chamarri Conner, Cornerback

Round 5, Pick 166: BJ Thompson, Edge

Round 6, Pick 194 (from Detroit): Keondre Coburn, Defensive Tackle

Round 7, Pick 250: Nic Jones, Cornerback

Fantasy Relevance

The Chiefs drafted one offensive-relevant fantasy player. Wide receiver Rice worked out with Mahomes in Texas. They then moved up eight spots to get Rice.

The Chiefs valued Rice more than most. Rice is a possession receiver, and the Chiefs lost Juju Smith-Schuster in free agency. It will be hard to spend fantasy draft capital for anyone other than the two men that the offense runs through. The Chiefs still have Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (although you aren’t spending prime draft capital on these three either).

Los Angeles Chargers, Offensive Coordinator, Kellen Moore

Moore replaces Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator for the Chargers. Lombardi was the offensive coordinator for one season.

Last season the Chargers were pretty good statistically. I’m defining pretty good as being in the top 10 in pivotal (also defined by me) statistical categories.

As a team, they were:

• Third in passing yards per game, 268.7.
• Tied for 10^th in first downs, 20.6.
• First in third down conversions per game, 6.7.
• Ninth in an average time of possession, 30:34

They were also 30^th in rush yards per game (88.4). Running back Austin Ekeler was RB4 in standard fantasy leagues and RB1 in PPR leagues. Ekeler had 915 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. But he also had 107 receptions with 722 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. In the last two seasons, no running back has had more touchdowns than Ekeler.

Quarterback Justin Herbert finished as QB11 in fantasy points. Herbert averaged 17 fantasy points per game. That was a regression from 2021, when he finished as QB2 in fantasy points averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game.

A fractured rib slowed Herbert. He went from 302 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in 2021 to 147 rushing yards and zero rushing touchdowns in 2022.

The wide receivers were a fantasy disappointment.  Mike Williams was WR33 in standard and WR32 in PPR leagues. That was the best standing for a Chargers wide receiver.

In PPR formats, Joshua Palmer was the second-highest fantasy finisher for the Chargers. Palmer finished as WR37. Keenan Allen finished as WR42 in PPR leagues. He was WR41 in standard leagues.

Los Angeles Chargers 2023 Draft Picks:

Round 1, Pick 21: Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver

Round 2, Pick 54: Tuli Tuipulotu, Edge

Round 3, Pick 85: Daiyan Henley, Linebacker

Round 4, Pick 125: Derius Davis, Wide Receiver

Round 5, Pick 156: Jordan McFadden, Offensive Tackle

Round 6, Pick 200: Scott Matlock, Defensive Tackle

Round 7, Pick 239: Max Duggan, Quarterback

Fantasy Relevance

Don’t dismiss Johnston because he appears to have the same skill set as Williams. Williams has had issues staying on the field,  but Johnston is going to be a roller coaster ride. Johnston has an amazing catch radius, although inconsistent production. He can gobble yards after the catch but be only on the receiving end of six touchdowns out of the 32 Duggan threw.

The bottom line is Herbert and Ekeler are the sure bets. Johnston is worth a late-round flyer.

Las Vegas Raiders, Offensive Coordinator, Mike Lombardi

After nine years, the Raiders will have a different quarterback under center. Gone is Derek Carr. Enter Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Raiders’ offense last season wasn’t good, statistically or otherwise. The Raiders finished in the top 10 in one category, time of possession. They averaged 30:10, which was good enough for the 10^th best.

The season was an anomaly as they had Josh Jacobs, who finished as RB1 in standard and RB3 in PPR leagues. They also had wide receiver Davante Adams who finished as WR3 in PPR and WR2 in standard.

But the team was 11^th in passing yards per game (231.4), 17^th in rushing yards per game (121.1), and 13^th in points per game (23.2).

The Athletic listed 10 reasons why the Raiders were bad in 2022, among them:

• An offense that committed the fourth most penalties in the league(34)
• An offensive line that allowed 50 quarterback hits (tied for 17^th)
• They were 23^rd in third down conversion rate and 22^nd in red zone touchdown rate.
• Carr finished 24^th in completion percentage and 19^th in yards per attempt.

The offense wasn’t bad, per se. They were situationally bad when it mattered the most. Carr regressed under Josh McDaniels’ offensive scheme, and Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow missing time didn’t help. The offense would be great the first half of games and then just fizzle out the second half.

And the season just kept getting weirder. Although statistically alive in the playoff hunt last season, they benched Carr and played Jarrett Stidham. To be fair, Carr did have his second-lowest completion percentage of his career (60.8%). It was also the second season in a row where he threw 14 interceptions, the 2022 season also included the second-lowest passer rating of his career (86.3).

So now the Raiders will have a new quarterback under center. They will also be without the services of tight-end Waller. In free agency, they acquired two tight ends, OJ Howard and Austin Hooper, and picked up another tight end in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Las Vegas Raiders 2023 NFL Draft Picks

Round 1, Pick 7: Tyree Wilson, Defensive End

Round 2, Pick 35: Michael Mayer, Tight End

Round 3, Pick 70: Byron Young, Defensive Tackle

Round 3, Pick 100: Tre Tucker, Wide Receiver

Round 4, Pick 104: Jakorian Bennett, Cornerback

Round 4, Pick 135: Aidan O’Connell, Quarterback

Round 5, Pick 170: Christopher Smith, Safety

Round 6, Pick 203: Amari Burney, Linebacker

Round 7, Pick 231: Nesta Jade Silvera, Defensive Tackle

Fantasy Relevance

There is Adams, and there is Jacobs.

Denver Broncos, Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi

That is what you call burying the lead because, as we all know, Sean Payton is the new head coach in Denver. And Payton will be calling the offensive plays hoping to revive an offense that was bad last season.

As a team, they were:

• 19^th in passing game per game, 211.3.
• 21^st in rushing yards per game, 113.8.
• 32^nd in points per game, 16.9.
• 32^nd in third down conversions, 29.13.
• 28^th in turnovers per game, 1.5.

There was plenty of blame to go around. The offense was historically bad. The Broncos scored approximately 34.8% fewer points per game than the league average. Pro Football Focus ranked quarterback Russell Wilson 29^th, while the offensive line allowed him to be sacked 55 times.

Wilson threw 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Tru Media ranked Wilson 25^th in EPA per dropback on play-action passes under center. Running back Melvin Gordon tied for the fifth most fumbles for a running back while playing seven fewer games than the other running backs. His 318 rushing yards were second most on the team. While journeyman Latavius Murray led the team with 703 rushing yards.

All this incredible inefficiency led to first-time head coach Nathaniel Hackett getting fired after 15 games.

Sean Payton on his initial thoughts on rookie minicamp.

His worst fear is that a player that’s here leaves and plays well for another team. Points to Adam Thielen as an example of a player that shined during minicamp. pic.twitter.com/yuRnLCtB1a

— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) May 13, 2023

The Broncos were active in free agency, acquiring guard Ben Powers and tackle Mike McGlinchey. They also picked up running backs Samaje Perine, Tony Jones Jr., and fullback Michael Burton. Jacksonville’s tight end Chris Manhertz and New Orleans tight end Adam Trautman were interesting acquisitions to go along with Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich. Seemingly Payton has addressed areas of need from last year.

Denver Broncos 2023 NFL Draft Picks

Round 2, Pick 67 (from Kansas City): Marvin Mims Jr., Wide Receiver

Round 3, Pick 67 (from Indiana): Drew Sanders, Linebacker

Round 3, Pick 83 (from Seattle): Riley Moss, Cornerback

Round 6, Pick 183 (from Denver via Detroit): JL Skinner, Safety

Round 7, Pick 257: Alex Forsyth, Center

Fantasy Relevance

I’m not afraid to say it. I was super high on the Broncos’ offense with the acquisition of Wilson preseason last year. So maybe this is just an overreaction to my overreaction but pump the breaks until we see what preseason holds.

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