Breaking Down the Fantasy Relevance of the NFC North
The NFC North was full of surprises last season. The offensive coordinators were all first-year coordinators on their teams. Two of the teams had top passing offenses and top scoring offenses, while one of the teams had the top rushing offense.
Bum Phillips made a shadow appearance in the form of his grandson, the offensive coordinator in Minnesota. Chicago’s Luke Getsy, Detroit’s Ben Johnson, and Green Bay’s Adam Stenavich were all promoted to offensive coordinators in 2022. Minnesota’s Wes Phillips was also promoted to the offensive coordinator in 2022, but new head coach Kevin O’Connell is the play-caller.
Whether you played in a standard or a PPR league, positional players from the NFC North helped you in your fantasy league. Three quarterbacks, two running backs, two wide receivers, and two tight ends all finished in the top 10.
Chicago Bears and Luke Getsy, Offensive Coordinator
As a team, the Chicago Bears did poorly last season. They finished fourth in the division with a 3-14 record. They were 23rd in points per game (19.2), 30th in plays per game (58.4), 32nd in passing attempts (22.2), and 32nd in passing yards (130.5). Their passing game was abysmal.
However, as fantasy options, if you choose wisely and stayed the course, you did alright. Quarterback Justin Fields finished as QB5 and tight end Cole Kmet finished as TE8.
Fields did it with his legs. The quarterback finished the season with 1143 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. He led the league with an average of 7.1 yards per carry. Fields accounted for 30% of the team’s rushing attempts. But he also only completed 192 passes on 319 passing attempts. Fields not only finished last in Pro Football Focus’ passing grade, but his quarterback rating was 54%.
Kmet finished as TE8 by putting up 10 or more fantasy points in five of his last nine games. If you stayed the course with Kmet, you were rewarded. But by then, your fantasy season may have been doomed.
So, is there any relevance to be had in 2023 in Chicago?
The 2023 free agency gains and losses were not quite earth-shattering. They lost running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Dante Pettis. Back-up quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Nathan Peterman are also gone. Their free agency additions trumped their losses. They added running backs D’Onta Foreman and Travis Homer and tight end Robert Tonyan.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, their first pick was used to tighten up an offensive line that was good at run blocking but not so good at pass blocking. Miami Dolphins’ Skyler Thompson, who started two games, was the only quarterback with a higher-pressure rate than Fields’ 45.7%.
Two more draft picks were used on weapons for Fields. Both in the fourth round, running backs Roschon Johnson and wide receiver Tyler Scott. It should also be noted that the Bears traded out of their number one pick to acquire wide receiver, D.J. Moore.
2023 Fantasy Relevant Chicago Bears
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Quarterback, Fields:
Although Fields ranked 30th in completion percentage and first in sacks, he was midrange, tied for 16th in passing touchdowns (17). Fields had a touchdown on 5.3% of his passes. That was the sixth-best rate and was second in the NFL in that state from Week 7 through the end of the season.
Fields has a comfortable floor because of his rushing ability. His weapons are better, and even if Chicago does not increase its 580 passing attempts per game, Fields should be able to raise his completion percentage. With an increased completion percentage, and if his passing touchdown rate remains constant, his ceiling is significantly raised.
A safe floor and a dual-threat quarterback equals top-10 fantasy goodness. Per playerprofiler.com, a quarterback with more rush attempts per game has a much higher correlation to getting more fantasy points per game.
Wide Receiver, Moore:
Last season was a down year for Moore. He only collected 888 receiving yards. The Bears’ leading receiver last year was tight end Cole Kmet, who finished with 544 yards. Darnell Mooney was second on the team with 493 receiving yards.
Moore is an upgrade. Last season Moore ranked 19th in average depth of target (13.3). When the Bears did attempt passes last season, Fields was 19th in deep ball attempts (48) and eighth in air yards per attempt (8.9).
Last season playing with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and PJ Walker, Moore was 12th in target share (27.7%), 17th in target per route run rate (26.8%), and fourth in deep targets (29).
The obvious problem depending on Moore, will be volume. The Bears passed the ball on average 22.2 times a game. That was the least amount in the NFL. They averaged 130.5 passing yards per game (32nd). That is compared to being number one in rushing yards per game (177.3) and rushing 10.6 times more than they passed the ball.
Tight End, Cole Kmet:
Kmet has familiarity going for him. Last season he led the team in target share (20%) with 44 targets.
With a more reliable receiving option and a lack of volume, there is concern about Kmet. Kmet finished as TE10 in standard and TE8 in PPR leagues.
Kmet scored 10 or more fantasy points in five of his last nine games. He didn’t score above nine fantasy points in his first nine games. That includes his first two games, where he didn’t score a single fantasy point.
Running Back, Khalil Herbert:
Herbert is in a timeshare. There is newly acquired D’Onta Foreman, a 2023 draft acquisition, and @jamiePerog favorite, Roschon Johnson, and of course, quarterback Fields.
In 2022 Fields, he had 33 runs of 10 yards or more. He was the Bears leading rusher averaging 7.1 yards per carry, scoring eight touchdowns on the ground.
It’s hard to depend on anyone but Fields for fantasy relevance.
Detroit Lions and Offensive Coordinator, Ben Johnson
Johnson was promoted to offensive coordinator last season. The Lions offense was a juggernaut. They finished fifth in points per game (26.2), eighth in passing yards per game (251.8), and 11th in rushing yards per game (128.8).
The main downside was their home versus away splits. The Lions were 5-4 at home and 3-4 on the road. The Lions had 1311 rushing yards and averaged 5.1 per attempt at home. They averaged 3.9 yards per carry with 868 yards on the road. At home, they had 23 passing touchdowns. On the road, they had six passing touchdowns. Luckily, they had Jamaal Williams scoring 17 of the 23 rushing touchdowns.
The split with the run game was much closer, with 13 rushing touchdowns at home and 10 on the road.
Offenses Acquisitions and Losses 2023
Free Agency
The Lions let go of Williams and his league-leading 17 rushing touchdowns and running back D’Andre Swift. They added David Montgomery, who also excels in short-yardage situations but has only had one season with double-digit touchdowns (2020, had 10 touchdowns).
They lost wide receiver D.J. Chark and added Marvin Jones Jr. The Lions also added depth in the quarterback room with Nate Sudfeld and the running back room bringing back Craig Reynolds.
2023 NFL Draft
The Lions had eight picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Eight of those picks went on the offensive side of the ball.
- Round 1, Pick 12 (from Arizona by way of Houston): Running Back Jahmyr Gibbs
- Round 2, Pick 34: Tight End, Sam LaPorta
- Round 3, Pick 68 (from Denver): Quarterback, Hendon Hooker
- Round 7, Pick 219 (from Philadelphia) Wide Receiver, Antoine Green
Fantasy Relevance in Detroit
Quarterback, Jared Goff
Last season Goff finished as QB10. The Lions were seventh in pace of play (2.17), with Goff attempting the sixth most passes in the league (587).
Goff had 4438 passing yards and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt (seventh in the league). His 29 touchdowns were all in the passing game. He isn’t a dual-threat quarterback. He had a total of 73 rushing yards for the season.
So, when drafting Goff, you are depending on the passing game. He has some reliable weapons (more on that later), but there are some areas of concern. Notwithstanding his home versus away split, the Lions only passed inside the 10-yard line 42.5% of their plays last year. That was the seventh-fewest in the league.
Without being a dual threat, and even with the good year he had last year Goff has only passed for 30+ touchdowns once in his career (in 2018, and he finished as QB9), Goff has a measurable ceiling.
Wide Receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Yes, please. Amon-Ra finished as WR9 in standard and WR7 in PPR leagues last season. Chark is gone, and Jameson Williams is serving a six-game suspension.
Last season the Sun god had a 32% target rate per route run. That was second to Tyreek Hill. Now he has little competition (at least for the first six weeks) for targets, and per fantasy pros, the Lions are tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the most favorable strength of schedule for fantasy wide receivers.
Tight End, Sam LaPorta
Here is the skinny. LaPorta is getting a boost because he comes from T.E. University, University of Iowa. It also doesn’t hurt that he will most likely be TE1 in an offense that was 12th in passing attempts last season and will be without Williams for six weeks.
Rookie tight ends have a notoriously low ceiling. But in this case, LaPorta has fallen to a destination that needs his services.
Running Back, Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs is the selection here for a variety of reasons. One is that Goff threw to the running back position 23.5% of the time last season, the third most in the league. That was something new because, in his last season in Los Angeles, he threw to the position 12%. So, we can surmise this is an offensive coordinator scheme and not an outlier for Goff.
Then there is Gibbs 12th overall selection by the Lions. That draft capital has to signify something. And then there is the OTA watch, which had Gibbs seeing snaps in the backfield, in the slot, and out wide.
David Montgomery will be your short-yardage back, but Gibbs looks to be on the receiving end of passes to the running back position.
Green Bay Packers and Offensive Coordinator, Adam Stenovich
Stenovich was promoted to offensive coordinator in 2022. Last season the Vikings’ passing game was King. The Vikings’ offense:
- They ranked 30th in rushing attempts, 23.3.
- They ranked 29th in rushing yards, 95.7.
- They ranked seventh in plays per game, 65.5.
- Ranked eighth in points per game, 24.9.
- Ranked third in passing attempts per game, 39.6.
- Ranked fourth in passing yards per game, 264.4.
And now, we will jump right into the gains and losses for the 2023 season and the Packers. The Packers’ offensive losses in free agency and by trades were seismic.
Their losses include quarterback Aaron Rodgers, wide receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, and tight end Robert Tonyan.
2023 NFL Offensive Draft Picks
Round 2, Pick 42: Luke Musgrave, Tight End
Round 2, Pick 50: Jayden Reed, Wide Receiver
Round 3, Pick 78: Tucker Kraft, Tight End
Round 5, Pick 149: Sean Clifford, Quarterback
Round 5, Pick 159 (from Detroit by way of Jacksonville and Atlanta): Dontayvion Wicks, Wide Receiver
Round 7, Pick 235 (from Detroit by way of Los Angeles Rams): Lew Nichols III, Running Back
Round 7, Pick 256: Gran DuBose, Wide Receiver
Fantasy Relevance of the Green Bay Packers
Quarterback Jordan Love
Love was drafted 26th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Packers.
There isn’t a lot of relevant information to go on. We know that Love has 10 NFL games to his credit in two years. Last season he had four games with 21 passing attempts and -1 rushing yards.
We also know that his supporting cast is pretty good. So, drafting Love as a late round QB2 isn’t the craziest thing.
Running Backs, Aaron Jones, and AJ Dillon
Yep, I am putting them together partly because I am lazy and partly because you can’t go wrong with either. Now I realize last season Jones finished as RB11 in standard and RB9 in PPR while Dillon finished RB26 in both, but the stats don’t tell it all. (Spoiler alert they never do…but I luv them)!
Jones will be the man in passing downs or the check-down option for a relatively new quarterback. Jones has posted 7.9 PPR fantasy points per game, the sixth-most among running backs since 2021. And he has a receiving touchdown on 1.5% of his routes run since 2020, per Pro Football Focus.
Dillon is going to be the goal-line guy. Dillon had more carries than Jones inside the 10-yard line last season (14 to 5). That helped him attain his career-high of seven touchdowns.
We don’t know what this new offense is going to look like. But we know that last season the offense was 15th in rushing attempts (26.8) and 18th in passing attempts (33.1) with Rodgers under center. It is hard to imagine that number will be skewed towards more passing with Love under center.
Wide Receiver, Christian Watson
Watson is WR1 in Green Bay. Last season he was WR7 in fantasy scoring from Week 10 on. However, for the season, his average was 10.3 fantasy points per game. While catching passes from Rodgers, he had an 11.6% drop rate. That was the second worst among all receivers.
In divisional games against Minnesota (6.1 fantasy points), Chicago (3.9 fantasy points), and Detroit (4.4 fantasy points), he racked up less than seven fantasy points in their first meeting. In the second meeting, he had 24.4 fantasy points against Chicago, 2.1 against Minnesota, and 16.6 against Detroit.
Again, we have no idea what the Love offense will look like, but we know that Watson is currently WR1 in that offense.
Tight End, Luke Musgrave
It’s the rookie tight-end dilemma. Musgrave could be impactful in an offense that has options. He is a big target, 6’6″, 253 pounds, and runs a 4.61 in the 40.
But he is also a rookie tight end playing with an inexperienced quarterback on a team that isn’t afraid to run the ball and has the men to do so.
Minnesota Vikings and Offensive Coordinator, Wes Phillips
This will be Phillips’s second season as the Vikings’ offensive coordinator. In his first season, the Vikings were third in passing attempts (39.6), fourth in passing yards (264.2), seventh in plays per game (65.5), and eighth in points per game (24.9). They were also at the bottom in rushing categories. The Vikings were 30th in rushing attempts (23.3) and 29th in rushing yards (95.7).
And, oh yeah, they dropped running back Dalvin Cook this year.
Acquisitions and Losses 2023
In addition to losing Cook, on the offensive side of the ball, the Vikings lost wide receiver Adam Thielen and tight end Irv Smith Jr. They acquired tight end Josh Oliver and wide receiver Brandon Powell.
2023 NFL Draft Picks
The Vikings had six picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. They used three of them as offensive weapons.
Round 1, Pick 23: Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver
Round 5, Pick 164: Jaren Hall, Quarterback
Round 7, Pick 222 (from San Francisco by way of Denver): DeWayne McBride, Running Back
Fantasy Relevance of Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback, Kirk Cousins
Cousins is the unsexy safe fantasy football option. In the last three seasons, he has finished no lower than QB12 in fantasy. He will never be a dual-threat quarterback, so he needs to throw for more than 30 touchdowns. But even then, a top-10 fantasy finish will most likely not happen.
However, Cousins gives you a safe floor.
Wide Receiver, Justin Jefferson
Jefferson has finished as a top-10 wide receiver in his last three seasons. Last season Jefferson was number one in targets (184), number seven in target share (29.3%), first in receptions (128), and fourth in total touchdowns (9).
The Vikings were seventh in plays per game, averaging 65.5 plays per game. With the addition of Addison and the dismissal of Cook, it appears the Vikings aren’t going to slow down the passing game anytime soon.
Tight End, T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson is an elite option at tight end in Minnesota. He was second in targets (129), sixth in total touchdowns (6), third in air yards (985), and third in red zone targets (19).
Hockenson finished as TE4. In this offense, TE4 could be his floor.
Running Back, Alexander Mattison
Mattison is currently listed as RB1. If the offense stays the same, there is no reason to believe that the Vikings 23.3 rushing attempts will suddenly vault Mattison into relevance.
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