Breaking Down the Fantasy Relevancy of the NFC West
The NFC West has the largest range of possible fantasy relevance. Some teams appear to have no fantasy relevance, and there are teams whose potential for fantasy relevance has us seeing the fantasy football winner podium in our sights. While it is way too early to call, there is nothing wrong with speculation.
The fantasy redrafts are happening. Everyone knows who is going in rounds one and two. The important question is, who are the sleepers that have the potential to boost you to that fantasy winner’s podium?
So, let’s see those fantasy-relevant players in the NFC West.
Embed from Getty ImagesArizona Cardinals and Drew Petzing, Offensive Coordinator
The Cardinals have a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, injured quarterback, and injured tight end. Their stud wide receiver is gone, and their stud running back hasn’t played a full season in the last three seasons. The Cardinals did the most Cardinal thing and went defensive for their head coach position, choosing former Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon.
Drew Petzing, the Cardinals’ offensive coordinator, was previously the tight end and quarterback coach for the Cleveland Browns. This season will be Petzing’s first time calling plays.
There is little confidence that this version of the Cardinals will be successful this year. Sportsbooks currently have the over/under for the Cardinals’ win total at 4.5. That is the lowest predicted win total for any team in the NFL this season.
But enough of the pessimism, we are here for the fantasy relevance, and it is not unheard of to have fantasy-relevant players on really bad teams. Will that formula apply to the 2023 Cardinals?
Acquisitions and Losses
The main loss on the offensive side of the ball was, of course, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins—the Cardinals also lost the services of wide receiver Robbie Anderson and quarterback Trace McSorley.
Before the draft, the Cardinals acquired wide receiver Zach Pascal, quarterback Jeff Driskel and tight end Geoff Swaim.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Cardinals’ offensive picks included two offensive linemen and two offensive weapons. For fantasy purposes, we like the sixth overall pick of offensive lineman Paris Johnson, but seriously we only care about the weapons.
In the third round, they picked wide receiver Michael Wilson with the 94th overall pick. They also landed quarterback Clayton Tune in the fifth round with the 139th overall pick.
Fantasy Relevance
Spoiler alert!!! There may be more fantasy options and value picks in the Arizona desert than you have been led to believe. Remember, you don’t have to be on the Kansas City Chiefs to be relevant.
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
Quarterback, Kyler Murray
Murray finished last season as QB21. He tore his ACL in mid-December and appeared to have (from the outside looking in) a contentious relationship with departed head coach Kliff Kingsbury. All of that is window dressing because, before the injury, Murray was the fourth-worst quarterback on third and fourth downs. He also was the second-worst quarterback under pressure and outside the pocket. This is not good news, especially since Fantasy Pros ranks the Cardinals’ schedule as the 30th hardest in the 2023 season.
There is also the real possibility that Murray does not start the season as he rehabs from the ACL injury. And then there is the loss of Hopkins. Per Roto Viz, Murray averaged 7.68 yards per attempt when playing with Hopkins and 6.58 without Hopkins.
The dual-threat quarterback is the cheat code in fantasy. In his last three seasons, Murray has had 819 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns (2020 season), 423 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns (2021 season), and 418 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in 11 games last season.
His dual-threat potential is trending downward. That downward trend is compounded by the fact that this will be his first year returning from an ACL injury, and yes, the Cardinals will be really bad this year.
It feels like malfeasance suggesting you draft Murray. However, a (really) late pick in Best Ball leagues feels almost good. You are, of course, banking on his return and that the Cardinals don’t make this a redshirt year for Murray.
Wide Receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown
Brown finished as WR47 in standard leagues and WR44 in PPR leagues. His current ADP is 81. Brown is the 33rd wide receiver taking off the fantasy board.
Chances are the Cardinals will be behind in almost every game. Whoever is the quarterback might find throwing the ball a lot more necessary. The plus is there is little competition for targets in this offense. Last season, Brown carried a 23.7% target share, resulting in 107 targets. Hopkins played in nine games and commanded a 29.4% target share. In the first six weeks without Hopkins, Brown was WR6 overall, commanding 10.7 targets per game.
Per BetMGM, Brown is -110 to go over 799.5 receiving yards. This number is dropping fast. Brown started at 900.5 for receiving yards. While his receiving yards props have dropped, his receiving touchdowns have remained the same, 4.5. On an over bet, the odds are +105, while -130 to bet the under.
Running Back, James Conner
It is unusual to see a running back be a legitimate three-down back nowadays. But that is what Conner is for the Cardinals. And since the Cardinals did nothing to challenge Conner, he will remain a three-down back in his contract year.
Last season in the Cardinals’ 5-12 season, Conner missed four games and left three games with an injury. In the 11 games he did play, Conner finished with 782 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, and he also added 300 receiving yards and eight total. Conner will always be a volume-based fantasy option. Last season he averaged 15.2 carries and 4.8 targets.
Conner “shared” time with Keaontay Ingram and Corey Clement. The duo combined for 42 carries and 12 targets. The Cardinals choose not to address the running back room this preseason. There is no reason to suspect they will not utilize Conner as a workhorse in the last year of his contract.
The better news may be that the Cardinals designed runs on 34.8% of their plays in the last four years. Petzing is coming from Cleveland, where they had runs designed on 44% of their plays last season. They also utilized a primary running back. And not to say that Conner is Nick Chubb, just saying that it bodes well for a healthy Conner to be in a system that relied primarily on one running back and utilized him often.
Conner’s current ADP is 4.11. The good is that he is a legitimate three-down back. The bad is that he cannot be counted on to stay healthy for an entire season. The good thing is that on a points-per-game basis, he finished 10th among running backs in his 11 games last season. The bad is the Cardinals’ offense isn’t looking too great. Conner will always be fantasy relevant when he is on the field.
Tight End, Zach Ertz
Stop me if you’ve heard this before; Ertz missed seven games last season. The Cardinals were the walking wounded last season. Ertz tore his ACL in November. Before the injury in his first nine weeks, he averaged 12.6 fantasy points per game.
One wishes Ertz would follow in his wife’s footsteps in dynasty circles. Thus, Ertz not on the field would allow Trey McBride to become relevant in the dynasty circles.
But this is a redraft. And as long as the tight end pool remains shallow, a tight end with an 18.0% target share and an 83.5% route percentage is worth a late-round dip.
Los Angeles Rams and Mike LaFleur, Offensive Coordinator
Last season one year removed from the Super Bowl Championship, the Rams finished 23rd in passing attempts (31.2), 27th in passing yards (182.8), and 27th in points per game (18.1). They also finished the season with Baker Mayfield under center.
The Rams acquired Mike LaFleur from the New York Jets, but we all know Sean McVay is making the offensive calls. The question is who will be on the field to listen. Quarterback Matthew Stafford had elbow concerns before the start of the season. He played in only nine games after suffering a spinal cord contusion. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp suffered an ankle injury. He required off-season surgery.
Losses and Acquisitions
The Rams did not return wide receiver Allen Robinson and quarterback Mayfield. Despite their sparse resources, they acquired tight end Hunter Long and wide receiver Demarcus Robinson.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, they acquired:
- Round 4, Pick 128: Stetson Bennett, Quarterback
- Round 5, Pick 175: Davis Allen, Tight End
- Round 5, Pick 177: Puka Nacua, Wide Receiver
- Round 6, Pick 215: Zach Evans, Running Back
Fantasy Relevance
Quarterback, Stafford
Stafford is a relic of a bygone era, the elite pocket passer. That is code for saying not a dual-threat quarterback. In today’s NFL, a quarterback coming off substantial injuries and cannot give you the bonus of being a run threat is almost obsolete.
Stafford played in nine games last season. He only had one game with more than 20 fantasy points; in Week 2 against the Atlanta Falcons, he scored 20.9. In seven games, he failed to score more than 15 fantasy points.
In his limited season, Stafford finished as QB32. The top five fantasy-scoring quarterbacks had multiple rushing touchdowns, except Geno Smith. Smith did have 366 rushing yards. In 2016 Stafford had his most rushing yards, 207. In that season, he averaged 17.5 rushing yards per game.
Without a rushing upside, lingering health concerns, and few weapons, Stafford is firmly planted in the QB2 category.
Wide Receiver, Kupp
I cannot imagine a multiverse where you do not draft Kupp in redraft. Kupp finished as WR23 last season and only played in nine games. Before he was injured, he was averaging 25.01 fantasy points per game. He was on the receiving end of a 31.0% target share while on the field for a 95.2% snap share.
Kupp’s current ADP is 1.07. He is the seventh pick of the first round. That feels right.
Tight End, Tyler Higbee
Here is the bottom line. Last season in standard leagues, Higbee finished as TE15. In PPR leagues, Higbee finished as TE6.
Higbee’s 108 targets were fourth for tight ends last season. He was fifth in receptions (72) but only finished with 620 receiving yards and three touchdowns. And it wasn’t until Week 15 that he scored his first touchdown.
Higbee is more valuable if you are playing PPR than standard leagues. A healthy Kupp playing a full season will cut into Higbee’s targets. But with only Kupp and Higbee being reliable options, Higbee will hold value in PPR leagues.
Running Back, Cam Akers
First, Akers was in the “doghouse,” then he was supposedly on the trading block, and then he was the RB1 for the Rams. It’s all so confusing.
Akers finished strong. He finished as RB5 in points per game in his final six games. It helped that he had 82.1% of the running back touches during that span.
The Rams’ running back room depth chart is Akers, Kyren Williams, Zach Evans, Ronnie Rivers, and Royce Freeman. The question is, do you trust the Rams to run the ball? Last season they were 26th in rushing attempts per game (24.2) without Stafford and Kupp playing a full season.
Until he pisses off McVay again, Akers will be the RB1 for the Rams. You just have to trust McVay will utilize the run game more than the 41.06% they did last year.
Embed from Getty ImagesSan Francisco 49ers and Kyle Shanahan
There are questions surrounding the 49ers. There is the question of who the quarterback for the 49ers will be. There is the possibility that in Shanahan’s low-risk/high-upside offense, it doesn’t matter.
The 49ers were 27th in passing attempts (29.5) and ninth in rushing attempts (29.7). The team played with three different quarterbacks and still made the playoffs.
Gains and Losses
Gone are quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh Johnson. They were replaced by quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Brandon Allen. The 49ers also let tight-end Tyler Kroft go.
The 49ers had nine draft picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Three of the picks were spent on offensive playmakers, and two of those were tight ends.
In the third round, they picked tight end Cameron Latu from Alabama. In round seven, they picked another tight end, Brayden Willis from Oklahoma, and in round seven, they picked Ronnie Bell, a wide receiver from Michigan.
Fantasy Relevance
Brock Purdy, Quarterback
Purdy, aka Mr. Irrelevant, became relevant (had to be done)last season in week 13. The 49ers lost Trey Lance and Garoppolo to injuries, so Purdy was the next man up.
Purdy played in six regular-season games and two playoff games. He had 1374 passing yards in those games with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. Purdy threw two or more touchdown passes in seven consecutive weeks. Against division foes Arizona and Seattle, he threw three touchdown passes. Against Seattle in the NFC Wild Card game, Purdy threw for 332 yards to accompany his three touchdown passes.
In the NFC Championship game, Purdy tore his ulnar collateral ligament in the elbow of his throwing arm. The torn UCL required surgery. Purdy has been cleared for training camp practice, but his status for the first week is still uncertain.
So, the question is who the starting quarterback for the 49ers will be when the season starts. If it’s Purdy, he is currently going as QB28.
Last season Purdy threw for less than 240 yards in six of his eight starts. From his Week 13 start until the end of the regular season, Purdy had 14.3, 21.7, 16.5, 16,17.1, and 19.8 fantasy points.
The upside is that all the 49ers’ peripheral players are yards after the catch demons. The downside is that the 49ers passing attempts in the last three years is a downward trend. In 2020 they were 16th in the league, attempting 35.6 passing attempts per game (Pittsburgh was first with 42.6); in 2021, they were 21st with 29.4 passing attempts per game (Tampa Bay was first with 43.3), and last season they were 27th with 29.5 passing attempts per game (Tampa Bay was first with 45.4).
Purdy does not bring a rushing upside, either. Last season he had 22 rushing attempts for 13 yards. He did add one rushing touchdown.
Wide Receiver, Brandon Aiyuk
This could have been Deebo Samuel, but Aiyuk is more durable and on an upward trajectory. In standard and PPR leagues last season, Aiyuk was WR15. (Samuel was WR34 in standard and WR38 in PPR.)
Aiyuk is currently being drafted as WR31 per Underdog Fantasy. Aiyuk is the man who last season had career highs in targets (113), receiving yards (1015), and receiving touchdowns (eight) while playing with three different quarterbacks. He led the team in receptions (78) with a career-high in target shares (22.6) and yards per route run (1.91). He also was on the receiving end of 15 red zone targets.
Aiyuk was 17th in yards after catch (388). He outscored Samuel on per game basis with 13.4 fantasy points per game. And when playing with Purdy, he had 40 targets with two touchdowns.
It is a steal if you can get Aiyuk at his current ADP.
Tight End, George Kittle
Kittle is currently going as the fourth tight end off the board. He missed the first two games last season with a groin injury. Kittle has only played one full season. He has missed 16 games over the last six years.
There was a nine-game sample where Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and Samuel were on the field together. In those games, Kittle had a 15.6% target share, 25.0% end zone target percentage, and 1.83 yards per route run.
Last season Kittle had 60 receptions, 765 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns. The touchdowns had Kittle TE2 in standard and TE3 in PPR leagues. He had an incredible 18.3% touchdown rate. Seven of Kittle’s 11 touchdowns were with Purdy in the game.
The only downside is you know Kittle will miss at least a couple of games it is a high statistical probability). His upside is you know he will command a 90% or more snap share because of his blocking ability.
Running Back, Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey is going as RB1 in both standard and PPR leagues. Last season his 244 rushing attempts were the fourth most touches in the league. He finished the season with 1139 rushing yards, eight touchdowns, 741 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.
The downside to McCaffrey is injury concerns. Last season was the first time he played a full season since 2019. But injury concerns are prevalent throughout the league. So, if you aren’t taking Justin Jefferson, you are taking McCaffrey, right?
The 49ers were seventh in rushing yards per game (136.8), ninth in rushing attempts (29.7), and, most important, they were sixth in points per game (25.9). McCaffrey is vital in both the run and the passing game. Remember that last year when the 49ers had a lead of a touchdown or more in the second half of the game, McCaffrey’s playing time went below 59%. But they are up by a touchdown, or more, because of McCaffrey.
Seattle Seahawks and Shane Waldron, Offensive Coordinator
Can we just dispense with the minutiae? The Seahawks drafted wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njiba and running back Zach Charbonnet. Last season the Seahawks were fifth in pass rate in neutral situations (59.2%). However, they were 27th in the use of 11 personnel on first downs. They ran two wide sets at 47% on Geno Smith’s dropbacks.
The addition of Smith-Njiba gives the Seahawks one of the best wide receivers trios in the league.
Per Fantasy Pros, D. K. Metcalf’s ADP is 36, Tyler Lockett’s is 74, and Smith-Njiba’s is 85. The Seahawks utilized tight end Noah Fant as a third pseudo third receiver last year. Fant, Metcalf, and Lockett combined for 60% of the receiving yards and 63% of the receiving touchdowns last season.
Quarterback Smith is currently going as QB15. He finished as QB5 last season even though his Pro Football Focus grade fell off the cliff during the last part of the season. From Weeks 1-8, Smith graded out at 84.8. From Weeks 9-18, PFF graded him out at a 64.2.
Smith led the league in completion percentage (69.8%). He finished with 4282 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Smith also added 366 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.
Trusting the receiving game may seem crazy after all the “let Russ cook” talk, but the Seahawks’ passing game is fantasy worthy.
Smith as the 15th quarterback, seems a little low. Smith-Njiba is fantasy relevant. And sorry, Kenneth Walker III, but Charbonnet is the fantasy relevant running back. It is worth mentioning that both Walker and Charbonnet have been sidelined. Walker has a groin strain, and Charbonnet had a shoulder injury but has returned to practice.
The acquisition of Smith-Njiba will impact tight end Fant the most. The tight-end landscape does not look well beyond the first seven, and unfortunately, Fant is not in the top seven.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
