Breaking Down Week Four’s Most Baffling Bets

Week Four has four games with a spread of two or fewer points. Let’s see if we can figure out which way to bet so you can spice up those parlays! 

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons

After cleaning out the house by hitting four of four upsets last week, unfortunately, I have to start by leaning Cleveland (-1.5) on this one. The Browns have only been beaten by a high passing team, and Atlanta is not one. The Falcons rank second worst in passing attempts per game, an average of 26.3, and are averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. It’s an inopportune matchup for them because teams are not running well against Cleveland. The Browns are holding opposing backfields to less than 90 yards per game. Myles Garrett’s probable absence could aid the Falcons’ backs’ cause, but I’m not sure it will make enough of a difference.

Atlanta’s secondary is just plain bad. And Amari Cooper has somehow managed to produce back-to-back 100+ yard games with scores! By all weights and measures, Jacoby Brissett should have his most productive game yet (which isn’t saying much). But it’s those bone-crushing rushers that are steamrolling for Cleveland that I’m talking about! Who can stop them, averaging 191 rushing yards per game? Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have faced seriously decent run defenses in Carolina and New York and a mediocre run defense in Pittsburgh, yet they still dominated. The Falcons will not be able to handle that duo, no matter how diligent their preparation. 

I like the Brown with points and the over (47.5). Both teams rank in the higher half of points scored per game thus far, and neither has scored less than 26 points yet this season. 

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Carolina hosting the Cardinals is an easy upset to rally behind. Arizona has been off to a rough start, but they’ve got the Panthers’ offense outmatched. Baker Mayfield is second to only Justin Fields in the least passing yards per game, an average of 161. The odds are in his favor, I suppose, because the Panthers have had a trio of tough defenses up until this game. I looked back to last season and the last time Mayfield faced an “easy” defense. It was Week 11, at home, against the Lions. Mayfield posted a line of 176 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and two interceptions. Case in point given. 

Kyler Murray hasn’t wowed yet but his production with Hollywood Brown last week was promising. The Panthers’ dangerous corner Jaycee Horn appeared on the injury report as questionable with a leg injury that may work in Brown’s favor. The Cardinals need to get James Connor more involved and this could be the game to move in that direction. Even though Carolina has a reputable defense, in reality, they have given up 135 rushing yards on average per game and three scores to running backs. 

The point total (43.5) is a real turn-off for me. I realize Arizona is averaging 29 points per game to their opponents currently, but Carolina can’t score anywhere near that. And while I believe the Cardinals will come out on top, this is one of those matchups where we could easily witness a field goal festival. I won’t bet the on total, but if you’re just dying to, lean under. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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This is a tough upset to call, but I’m going against the “old man” (cue Neil Young and NFL’s corny hype commercial) on this one. The Buccaneers are favored in this matchup for two reasons – Mike Evan’s return and home field advantage. The problem in thinking that Evans’ return will solve Tom Brady’s woes is the currently crippled nature of Tampa’s offensive line. The Buccaneers are only averaging 211 passing yards per game. Brady has an abysmal passer rating under pressure (54.6) (compare that to Patrick Mahomes’ 119). The Chiefs have 10 sacks on the season, ranked fourth among defenses. 

Kansas City’s defense has been surprisingly effective against the run, only allowing an average of 87 rushing yards per game (it should be duly noted that they have been ineffective against stopping running backs through the air, however). Forcing Brady into short passing situations could prove a defensive script worth examining for mastermind Andy Reid. It hasn’t worked well for Brady as his offense has the fewest red zone scoring attempts in the league (1.7 per game on average)! And we all know that the Chiefs cannot be beaten by field goals. 

Really, though, it’s Patrick Mahomes I believe in to win this game. Last week, Mahomes blew his chance to come back with an interception. I see this being another close match, but I don’t see him making the same mistake. Kansas City’s offensive line compares decently to the injury-ridden Buc’s defensive front as well. Mahomes will be relying on Kelce in a big way in this game, with the Bucs surrendering the fifth-most receptions to tight ends. Oh, and history is on his side; the last time Mahomes played in Raymond James Stadium, he torched the place for 462 passing yards and three touchdowns.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Well, at least we’re going to get three of the four contests as upset options this week; I have to take the Rams to win this divisional rivalry game. It’s a tricky matchup with the league’s top pass defense (49ers) taking on one of the top run defenses (Rams). San Francisco has the better all-around defense, but Los Angeles has the better offense. So what gives?!

Cooper Kupp. He takes, actually. Over 100 yards in each of his games against the 49ers last season, scoring three touchdowns in the last two of them. Sure they’ve stopped the pass well enough up to this point, but San Francisco has faced three struggling passers – Justin Fields, Geno Smith, and Russell Wilson. Matthew Stafford’s offensive line has stepped up to the plate since his beat-down Week One, although they have quite the task ahead of them. 

Jimmy Garoppolo has San Francisco’s number. He’s never lost to them in the regular season. But can you remember how he lost to them in the NFC championship game last year? I can. It was a man named Aaron Donald who made all the difference. It’s a major cause for concern that the 49ers just lost their best offensive lineman. If I were Sean McVay, I’d be all over that vulnerability. And McVay is smarter than me. 

I’m about to make some of you cringe when I mention this last thing about the Monday Night contest, but bear with me because it really could matter in this one. The last two games these rivals battled it out were decided by three points. In their three games last season, there were three field goal attempts per game. Matt Gay, the Rams kicker, was the second-most accurate kicker last year and has yet to miss a kicking opportunity this season. Robbie Gould, the 49ers’ kicker, was the 17^th most accurate kicker last season. If this game comes down to the wire, I like Gay to come out a hero. The under is a tempting bet here too (42.5).

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