Breaking Down Week Two’s Most Baffling Bets
Week 2 has four games with a spread of less than 2.5 points. Let’s see if we can’t figure out which way to bet so you can spice up those parlays!
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
Carson Wentz may have been turning some heads in his win last week, but the Lions were commanding more attention even in their loss. And while I’m probably too prematurely excited about Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, I’m going to stick with the House on this game (Detroit). D’Andre Swift was explosive last week and faces a banged-up Washington front, leading me to believe in Dan Campbell’s ability to psych his team into a win that will cover the spread (-1.5). Amon Ra-St. Brown outmatches his slot coverage by leaps and bounds, too.
The Commanders’ defensive debut just wasn’t fierce enough to inspire confidence, allowing 383 total yards to Jacksonville. The worry here is that Detroit’s defense was pretty paltry as well. They allowed 181 rushing yards! However, 90 of those yards were to Jalen Hurts. Wentz isn’t going to be a threat in that sense. And while Wentz had a shocking four-touchdown game, the Lions didn’t allow any passing touchdowns last week.
This match-up is a perfect candidate for the over as well (48.5). Both teams ranked in the top ten last week in points per game and Detroit ranked 2nd in most points allowed (Washington ranked 14th)!
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
I don’t think there’s any question here and I’m surprised the spread is so low when Saquon Barkley, who boasted a total of 194 yards last week faces the defense that allowed the second-most rushing attempts and rushing yards! New York runs away with this one, although I don’t know that I’m going to play around with the O/U (43.5) this game; if I had to pick one, I’d go with the under.
The Panthers’ number one weapon, Christian McCaffery, started the season mediocre, at best. That’s not to say that he won’t bounce back effectively against a Giants’ defense that ranked in the top ten in most passing yards allowed to running backs last week. Neither team has reliable receiving corps. This matchup is going to come down to the running game and quarterback efficiency. Both Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones threw one interception last week, but as a whole, Jones has been better at ball security during his career than Mayfield.
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Embed from Getty ImagesHere we hit on our first underdog bet of the week, Pittsburgh. After the battle the Steelers mustered against a high-octane offense last week, I’m not sure how New England’s ho-hum crew is favored at all. The Patriots put up a measly 271 total yards last week and scored the second-fewest points of the week (7). Yes, the Steelers didn’t generate many yards either, but they at least scored 23 points and won their game. They also took the ball away five times in their battle against the Bengals and sacked Joe Burrow seven times. However, without T.J. Watt, such a defensive destruction derby is unlikely to be repeated.
Both these teams’ top wide receivers achieved a total of 55 yards last week, but at least Pittsburgh had a tight end who showed up, Pat Freiermuth. Also, Mitch Trubisky, though inconsistent, attempted seven more passes than Mac Jones. Based on receiver and defensive back matchups, the Steelers will have the upper hand in the bleak passing games between these two teams. And while the Patriots look to dominate the running game with injury to Najee Harris, their defense front has a spark that should carry them to victory. This is a tempting over (40.5) bet as well, being the second-lowest point total of the week.
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles
Embed from Getty ImagesMy favorite game of the week is also my favorite upset bet, the Vikings at Philadelphia. This match-up is going to be an insane ending to Week Two, and I’m going with Minnesota on the money line even though they’re getting two points. Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown put up similarly stellar numbers last week, but Kirk Cousins has the one-up in the passing game with three receivers able to terrorize the Eagles’ inept slot corner. While the Eagles put up four rushing touchdowns, the Vikings’ defense only allowed Green Bay’s notable duo a total of 11 rush yards and one score. Philly also allowed the 5th most rushing yards last week while Dalvin Cook put together 108 yards on his own.
The Eagles are just barely outmatched here, but they are outmatched. If Minnesota can keep Jalen Hurts to anywhere less than that of his performance last week, they will come out on top. This is another game where turnovers will be of paramount importance, which is another factor where Minnesota has the slight advantage. And although I want to bet the over (50.5) because we all want to watch this matchup where the over hits, I have a feeling the defenses are going to shine, so I’ll take the under here.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
