Breakout/Fakeout Week 4: Is Chris Olave the Next Big Thing?
The season is heading into Week 4 and fantasy managers are starting to get a clear trajectory for each player on their fantasy rosters. This week’s breakout/fakeout highlights a few noteworthy performances from last week’s games.
Breakouts
Embed from Getty ImagesRhamondre Stevenson (NE)
Last week’s game against the Ravens could be a sign that Rhamondre Stevenson season is upon us.
Stevenson played 41 snaps and ran 26 routes compared to Damien Harris, who played 25 snaps and ran 11 routes. The touches were close, but Stevenson earned a 16-13 advantage.
Stevenson led the backfield in carries (12), rushing yards (73), receptions (4), and receiving yards (28). Harris started the game and the team used seemingly a rotation by drive.
Stevenson earned the edge in snaps in part because of two-minute drills. Patriots’ quarterback Mac Jones suffered a high-ankle sprain and is expected to miss some time.
With Brian Hoyer poised to step in, it’s likely the Patriots will lean more heavily on the run game, which benefits both running backs. If the offense continues to lean toward Stevenson for passing down situations, his breakout season has arrived.
Chris Olave (NO)
Rookies aren’t typically called breakouts because it’s their first season so by default, it’ll be the best season of the player’s career. In Chris Olave’s case, his performance so far needs to be highlighted.
Saints’ receivers Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas suffered injuries in last week’s game against the Panthers and left the game.
Olave led the trio in targets in the first half (4-3-3) when everyone was still healthy. He dominated the target share even more in the second half once the others were injured.
Olave had 12 targets and the next person was Alvin Kamara with 6. Thomas had 5 targets. On the season, Olave is third in air yards (227), ahead of Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown.
He’s seventh among receivers in yards (268) on 17 receptions. The rookie has established himself as the team’s go-to deep threat and one of Jameis Winston’s favorite targets. Start Olave with confidence moving forward.
Embed from Getty ImagesZay Jones (JAX)
Jones led the Jaguars in targets, receptions, and yards, and all three starting wide receivers on the team scored a touchdown during the win over the Chargers.
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The Jaguars’ offense runs most of their snaps in 11 personnel, rarely substitute out their top three receivers, and passes the ball both early in the game and late even with a lead.
Jones’s current usage puts him among the top 20 wide receivers for targets on the season. He probably won’t remain that high, but to get a receiver of the waiver wire who could finish in the Top 30 is a boon to fantasy lineups.
He should be considered a high-floor player and someone great to have when bye weeks begin.
Fakeouts
Jelani Woods (IND)
Another week and another tight end that posted a performance that isn’t sustainable. Woods scored two touchdowns for Indianapolis, but he’s in a crowded Colts tight end room on a team that has struggled offensively.
Woods rarely played in two-tight end sets because Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson are better run-blockers. Woods ran 11 routes, which was less than Alie Cox (23) and Granson (13).
Woods could see more playing time after these touchdowns, but this will remain a three-tight end committee that should be avoided.
Embed from Getty ImagesMack Hollins (LV)
The Raiders veteran wide receiver had the best game of his NFL career, but it’s unlikely he can be a consistent fantasy starter in the coming weeks.
Hollins caught eight of 10 targets for 158 yards and a touchdown. Hunter Renfrow didn’t play because of a concussion but could be cleared to play in Week 4.
With Renfrow’s absence, Hollins saw an increase in targets. Before last week, Hollins had never caught more than five passes or tallied more than 72 receiving yards in a game.
He will continue to see significant playing time for Las Vegas, but he will at best be the fourth-most important option for the offense behind Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Renfrow.
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