Breakout or Fakeout Week 3: Texans’ Passing Game Comes Alive
We’ve had two weeks of football to analyze, and now we have a larger sample size to make decisions from.
A pair of young running backs and two teammates make the list of players who are trending toward breakouts, while I refuse to buy into the performances of two veteran wide receivers.
Breakouts
Embed from Getty ImagesJames Cook, RB (BUF)
After two weeks, it’s clear Cook is the team’s best running back. He is currently RB 9 in PPR. He earned his first 100-yard rushing game against the Raiders on Sunday. He played 46 of 74 snaps to lead RBs. Latavius Murray played 18 snaps, and Damien Harris played 14, according to PFF.
However, Cook’s game didn’t come without some negative. The team’s backup running backs scored two touchdowns.
James Cook posts first 100-yard rushing game: Cook had his best game on the ground, but the team’s backup running backs scored two touchdowns.
When the Bills were inside the 10, Damien Harris and Latavius Murray both played six snaps while Cook had four. If this continues, it will hurt Cook’s touchdown potential all season.
Murray played in the two-minute drill for the Bills last week, and Cook took the two-minute drill in Week 2. That’s a positive sign for his receiving potential. He has eight receptions on 10 targets for 53 yards.
Not getting the bulk of the redzone work is the potential downside but the running back dominating total touches on a prolific offense is something to invest in.
Brian Robinson, RB (WAS)
Robinson has been really good out of the gate from a fantasy perspective. He sits at RB 3 on the season so far, averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game.
The playing-time split between Robinson and Antonio Gibson was expected. What wasn’t expected was how effective Robinson would be.
Last week, Robinson played an even higher percentage of early-down snaps and nearly half of the third-down snaps.
The playing time was more balanced in Week 2, but Gibson only ran the ball twice for 9 yards. If this continues for Gibson, he’ll be droppable while Robinson continues to thrive.
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Tank Dell and Nico Collins, WR (HOU)
The Texans have two young receivers who have developed chemistry with quarterback CJ Stroud.
Collins is WR 6 after two weeks. He posted a 7-146-1 line against the Colts Sunday. He leads the team in targets, catches, and yards.
Stroud is third in the NFL in passing attempts (91). Houston will be trailing in a ton of games, so they’ll continue to air it out, and Collins is the No. 1 receiver at this point.
Dell caught seven passes for 72 yards and a touchdown. It was expected that Dell would play more snaps in 11 personnel, but he also played significantly in other formations, according to PFF. He played 12 out of a possible 21 snaps in all other personnel groupings. Robert Woods also saw 12 snaps, with Collins only playing four.
Dell also ran more routes in 11 personnel than Collins. If his playing time continues, Dell should continue to produce consistently for fantasy.
Fakeouts
Brandon Johnson, WR (DEN)
Anyone who catches a hail mary as time is expiring can’t be counted on for consistent fantasy production. Johnson played 45 percent of the snaps.
Johnson caught two passes on three targets in each of the team’s first two games. Both of his catches were touchdowns Sunday.
Johnson is likely 4th in the receiving room behind Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Marvin Mims. He can’t be trusted moving forward.
Embed from Getty ImagesNelson Agholor, WR (BAL)
Similar to Johnson, Agholor is a receiver who is low on the depth chart and had a productive game Sunday. He caught 5-of-6 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown.
Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. were the clear starters in the first half, but Baltimore used more of a rotation than last week. Rashod Bateman, Agholor, and Devin Duvernay all played double-digit snaps in the first half.
Beckham left the game with an ankle injury, and Bateman led the wide receiver room in offensive snaps at 21, with Flowers at 19.
The Ravens have an easy matchup against the Colts next week, but Agholor can’t be trusted. He’s down in the pecking order behind Mark Andrews, Flowers, Bateman, and Beckham if he’s healthy.
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