Buying Low & Selling High in a Post Week 1 World
Repeat after me: I will not overreact to Week 1, I will not overreact to Week 1, I will not overreact to Week 1. It’s easier said than done after salivating for football for the past seven months. Pre-conceived notions are shattered and every performance is magnified and criticized more harshly than say Week 7.
We never want to overreact as fantasy managers, but we do need to react to certain situations. Proper reactions are pivotal in the crucial in-season management of our fantasy team(s). Championship teams rarely look similar to the team that was drafted. Working the waiver wire and trading when a players’ value is beneficial to you are what separates casual fantasy managers from champions.
Let’s get after it!
SELL HIGH
Corey Davis
Fresh off a 7/5/97/2 receiving line, Davis looked and produced like the number one receiver for the New York Jets. That was good enough for a top-five fantasy finish in Week 1. Game script will be in Davis’s favor because this Jets team will be perpetually playing from behind.
The problem lies in historical analysis of WR production with a rookie QB. There was a great article in 2018 from Kyle Borgognoni (Fantasy Footballers) detailing WR production with rookie QBs who started at least 10 games.
He found there have only been five instances of a WR finishing in the top 12 with a rookie QB.
- Roddy White in 2008 with Matt Ryan
- Steve Smith in 2011 with Cam Newton
- Percy Harvin in 2011 with Christian Ponder
- A.J. Green in 2011 with Andy Dalton
- Reggie Wayne in 2021 with Andrew Luck
I researched 2019 to now with the same parameters and found there was one other top 12 WR. Keenan Allen finished as the WR12 in 2020 with Justin Herbert. Jarvis Landry (WR18) in 2018 with Baker Mayfield gets an honorable mention.
Capitalize on Davis’s amazing Week 1 because history is against sustained top-tier production for the Jets’ duo.
Melvin Gordon
This one is going to be short and sweet. Javonte Williams out carried him in Week 1 (14 to 11), they had a 50/50 snap count share, and nearly 70% of his rushing total was from one carry. He is still a good RB (point to make to your potential trade partner), but Williams will surpass him in opportunities sooner rather than later.
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My advice is to try trading him straight up for Javonte Williams.
Mark Ingram
What in the hell happened? He had how many carries??!! Ingram was second in the league with 26 rush attempts. My mind has exploded all over my laptop.
Seriously though, the Houston Texans are an awful team who just enjoyed their last positive game script of 2021. Slide into the Ronald Jones manager’s DMs to gauge interest.
BUY LOW
Ezekiel Elliott
Let’s get the obvious one out of the way… it was Week 1 against the most dominant run defense the NFL has seen in quite some time. Seriously… Tampa Bay was first in nearly every run defense metric in 2020 and they returned all 11 starters. The Dallas game plan was to abandon the run and play “first to 30 points wins”.
Elliott was on the field for 83% of the offensive snaps. He is > Tony Pollard in the organization’s eyes. Better days are coming for a guaranteed top 12 finisher at the position. “But Erik, how can you know that?” Because he’s literally never finished outside the top 12 in his career. Even in 2017 when he missed six games he was RB12. The situation CAN NOT (quick prayer to the football gods) be worse for him than it was in 2020.
It won’t be sexy, but Zeke will be a cornerstone on every fantasy team he is a part of. Throw an offer out there to the Zeke manager in your league if he or she is feeling some type of way.
Mike Evans
Embed from Getty ImagesFrom that same (incredible) Thursday Night Football game. Evans saw six targets and had three catches for 24 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s disappointing considering Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and Chris Godwin absolutely feasted on that porous Dallas secondary.
Let’s pump the brakes just a tad. He was on the field for 94% of offensive snaps, so it’s not like he was in the infamous Bruce Arians doghouse. Evans has these games that just kill your team in a given week, so you need to be ok with that if (and hopefully when) you buy low on him. While those weeks really stick with fantasy managers let this next paragraph remind you of his elite production potential.
These are his per-game averages since Antonio Brown joined the Buccaneers in Week 9: 7.7 targets, 4.8 receptions, 73 receiving yards, and 0.7 touchdowns. The 17 game extrapolation equals 131/82/1,241/12. Mike Evans is going to be just fine for fantasy in 2021.
He definitely has the confidence and adoration of his future Hall-of-Fame QB.
Calvin Ridley
He disappointed fantasy managers with a WR59 finish on eight targets, five receptions, 51 yards, and zero touchdowns. It was doubly disappointing because the Eagles projected to be a top 10 matchup for opposing fantasy WRs.
Deep breath, hold it, and now exhale. He saw eight targets! That’s excellent and it may be his low mark for the season. Matt Ryan and the offense as a whole looked awful, but Ridley is going to get the volume necessary to finish as a top 10 fantasy WR. They will likely spend most of the season playing from behind thus ensuring a positive (for fantasy) game script for Ridley and the Atlanta pass catchers.
He had steep draft capital so managers aren’t likely to part with him lightly; however, you know your league mates best. Be prepared to pounce if the Ridley manager is prone to panic.
There you have it! Post Week 1 buy low/sell high candidates. I’ll be here for you each week to offer my two cents. Feel free to DM me or @ me on Twitter @FantasyBBQ if you agree/disagree/need someone to yell at.
Good luck to you all in the fantasy wars to come!
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