Cedric Tillman Might Be Slept on in Your Rookie Drafts
Cedric Tillman
Tennessee – Wide Receiver – 6’3″ 213 lbs.
2022 Stats: 37 rec 417 yds 11.2 ypr 3 td (missed 6 weeks due to injury)
Pros
Before examining 3-star redshirt senior Cedric Tillman as a prospect, it’s important I provide some context. Tillman had an interesting college career that involved a coaching change, a crowded wide receiver room, and a significant ankle injury. All of these factors have impacted his production and draft stock. On paper, Tillman is a five-year player with one year of non-early breakout production. But there is reason to bet on Tillman at the right price in your rookie drafts.
In a class with a lot of smaller receivers, Tillman’s size stands out. He combines that size with good athleticism (9.56 RAS; speed and burst scores both in the 79th percentile, per Player Profiler). Tillman has enough acceleration, agility, and elusiveness to win routes and gain a few yards after the catch. He shows good body positioning and physicality – both at the catch point and, importantly, against press coverage. Tillman tracks the ball well, can extend his frame, and has solid hands. The scouting community lauds him for his release package, route running, and football IQ.
From an analytics perspective, there is a lot to like about Tillman. He checks the “alpha” size box, which bodes well for fantasy production; the (expected) draft capital box as a likely 3rd-rounder; and the athleticism box with his 40 time (4.55), speed score, and RAS. His 2021 EPA/play of 1.09 and dominator rating of 34% cross the desired thresholds for those metrics. (numbers per Jay Stein) That same season, he gained an excellent 2.46 y/rr and posted a 72.2% contested catch rate (PFF).
Con
As noted above, Tillman is an older prospect; he will turn 23 a few days before the draft. That can hurt his draft stock. Also noted above, he can be tagged with the “only one year of production” label. While he was off to a good start before the 2022 ankle injury, every aspect of a profile matters, and the production portion of Tillman’s is somewhat lacking.
Like several prospects I’ve already profiled, such as Xavier Hutchinson and Eric Gray (both also older prospects and possible value picks), Tillman won’t blow you away with an elite trait. He seems to be the oft-used “solid, if unspectacular.” He likely won’t be a difference-maker or game-changer. That can limit his ceiling in draft capital, NFL opportunities, and fantasy production.
From an analytics perspective, Tillman’s profile has some flaws. As noted, he would not check any age boxes, including the early declare box and the early breakout box/dominator rating of 20+% year 1 or 2 box. Many of his production numbers fall short of common thresholds, and while his 2021 RYPTPA mark of 2.88 is very good, his career average of 0.85 is well below the desired marks. (numbers per Jay Stein)
Summary
Cedric Tillman is a solid wide receiver prospect who could be a boundary presence/X-type receiver who is also a producer on intermediate routes and over the middle. His career averages of 14.9 ypr and 15.8 aDOT are promising, and we saw him eat up SEC defenses in his junior year.
Tillman is projected as a real-life 3rd-round pick on NFL Mock Draft Database and is still currently available in the 3rd round of dynasty rookie drafts, mock or otherwise. The class is deep, so that’s not egregious, but I think that can turn out to be a very good value. I see him as a solid WR3/flex option with WR2 upside.
Given team needs and Tillman’s expected draft capital, some landing spots that make sense are: the Cardinals (67th, 97th, and 106th overall) — especially if they trade DeAndre Hopkins, Raiders (70th and 110th), Colts (107th and 141st), Titans (73rd), Jets (75th and 113th), Ravens (87th), Vikings (88th and 120th), Giants (90th and 101st), Bills (92nd), and Chiefs (96th). One landing spot that could be very good or very bad would be the Patriots (77th, 108th, and 118th), especially if they don’t re-sign Jakobi Meyers.
Ideal Role: an NFL boundary WR, team’s WR2
2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: late 2nd or 3rd round
Player Comp: Michael Pittman, Bryan Edwards, Robert Woods, Terrace Marshall
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