As I mentioned in my Big Ten West preview about how nearly every team plays the same style of offense and defense. The Big 12 is the epitome of that offensively. Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia all run variations of the Air Raid offense. This has produced some video game numbers over the years. Since 2008 at least one Big 12 team has been in the top five in total offense; in 2011 and 2012 both Baylor and Oklahoma State finished in the top five. In 2014 Baylor and TCU both finished in the top five; last season Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU were top three.
With ever-expanding conferences, the Big 12 is dragging their feet. The SEC poached Texas A&M and Missouri, the Pac-12 snatched up Colorado leaving the Big 12 the only power five conference without a championship game. To keep up with the Joneses so to speak the Big 12 needs to add two teams; split the conference and have a conference championship. Why have a conference championship game? increase revenue for the conference, increase exposure for teams and ensure that your conference has a clear winner for the college football playoff (remember 2014 Baylor/TCU…..both teams ranked in the top five with one conference loss). Adding Houston and SMU makes sense due to location (already in Texas) and both schools are on the upward swing. Plus do you really want to the SEC to absorb Houston and gain access to recruiting in Texas?
In order of finish:
Oklahoma Sooners: In Bob Stoops remarkable sixteen year’s at Oklahoma has won ten conference championships, ten years finishing in the top ten and has never had a losing season in Norman. This is the most consistent program in college football besides Alabama (really unfair to compare any team to Alabama). Heisman trophy candidate Baker Mayfield leads an Oklahoma offense that averaged 43 points a game last season. Along with Mayfield, running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon return who had 1300 and 750 rushing yards respectively. The offensive line returns three starters at the most important line positions (Left Tackle…..protect Mayfield’s backside and Center…..makes protection calls). The only question is at Wide Receiver, however since 2012 five receivers have been drafted in the NFL; Bob Stoops has a history of replacing his top receiver. Defensively this should be a solid unit with five defensive linemen returning with ten plus game experience and a secondary that features all five returning starters (Oklahoma runs a 3-3-5 defense). With only one returning linebacker, defensive coordinator Mike Stoops could morph his defense to a dime look with four defensive linemen, one linebacker, and five defensive backs. Four out of the first five games this season are challenging. Oklahoma opens at Houston, then has Ohio State at home then travels to TCU than the Red River Rivalry with Texas.
TCU Horned Frogs: Gary Patterson has been the head coach at TCU for sixteen years and during that time frame the Horned Frogs have moved from the WAC to Conference USA to the Mountain West and the Big 12. At each stop, Patterson has won at least one conference championship. Winning the Big 12 this season may be a little far-fetched (unless Baker Mayfield gets hurt), however, a top 10/15 finish is certainly obtainable. Former Texas A&M starter Kenny Hill leads the Horned Frogs offense this season. A deep group of receivers will help Hill adjust to TCU (four receivers had over 500 yards receiving). The biggest question mark for the offense is the offensive line. Only one starter comes back this season. Patterson’s calling card has always been defense his 4-2-5 has been a great equalizer for spread offenses. From 2009-2011 the Horned Frogs had the number one defense for total yards in the country. Since then TCU has moved to the Big 12 (more Air Raid offenses) and changed to a up-tempo spread offense (defense is on the field more) but the defense finished in the top 25 in total defense. This season TCU’s defense is loaded. Injuries last season created depth; five players off the defensive line played in ten plus games, five linebackers return with ten plus games experience and the secondary returns ten players with ten plus game experience. TCU is a Baker Mayfield injury away from winning the Big 12.
Baylor Bears: The only word to describe Baylor’s off-season is wow. Cliff notes version is this: Art Briles fostered a rape and sexual assault is ok if you’re a football player culture. A more in-depth look at Baylor’s offseason can be found here. That link provides several articles depicting the Baylor timeline in full details. My question is why not clean house? get rid of everyone associated with the football program and start fresh. Hire a new coach and attempt to put everything behind you. The hiring of Jim Grobe feels like a temporary solution and in a year or two Baylor will be looking for another coach. As far as this season Baylor is going to score points at will. Before quarterback Seth Russell got hurt Baylor put up 56,66,70,63,66,62 points. Those are football scores! That’s an average of 63 points per game. That’s more than fifteen college basketball teams averaged. Two thousand yard rushers return for the Bears. The receiving core loses first round pick Corey Coleman but KD Cannon will fill Coleman’s shoes. Defensively the Bears give up a ton of points and yards, but when your offense operates so quickly the defensive stats are skewered. Call this the Oregon effect. Baylor just has to hold opponents under thirty points. Baylor is the biggest question mark in the country schedule-wise; they could either rally and win out or fall apart.
Oklahoma State Cowboys: After watching this press conference when Mike Gundy famously said, “I’m a man……I’m 40…” I thought Gundy was a joke; a middle of the road coach that lost his cool. I was wrong….Mike Gundy is a good football coach that has consistently won at Oklahoma State. Gundy has won 68% of his games (better than Jimmy Johnson and Les Miles) and was a double overtime loss in 2011 from competing in the National Championship game. Offensively the Cowboys return quarterback Mason Rudolph who threw for over 3770 yards and 21 touchdowns while splitting snaps with J.W. Walsh. With Rudolph entrenched as the starter and three receivers coming back that had over thirty catches last season, the Cowboys should again be a top ten passing attack. On the other hand, the running game needs work; with four returning starters along the offensive line Chris Carson should have some room to run. Defensively the Cowboys have to replace 18.5 sacks between two players: Emmanuel Ogbah and Jimmy Bean. This is not good especially in the Big 12 where everyone throws the ball.
Texas Longhorns: When I wrote about College Football Coaches on the hot seat for this upcoming season I wrote that Charlie Strong job was safe (for now). Texas lost three games last season by seven points total. Win one or two of those games and your above .500. Strong has a track record of two losing seasons than winning in the third and forth. This is year three of the Charlie Strong regime….expect an improvement. Finding a quarterback is Strong’s first priority in Austin this year. Jerrod Heard and Tyrone Swoopes both took snaps last year and were unimpressive, to say the least. Heard only completed 58% of his passes last season (unheard of in today’s college football) and Swoops only completed 50% of his passes. The Longhorns may end up with true freshman Shane Buechele who look good in the spring. Either way expect the Longhorns to run the football with D’Onta Foreman and whoever is the quarterback (both are scrambling type quarterbacks) and three returning starters along the offensive line. Finding receivers to play in a spread offense is much easier than a pro-style offense. What is puzzling is the defense, with Strong’s defensive background while at Florida and later Louisville Strong was able to put solid defenses on the field. Last season Texas finished 107th in total defense. With nine returning starters on the defensive line, linebacker and the secondary the defense should improve. Texas is favored in seven games this season and as long as they can beat the teams they are supposed to beat then Strong should survive another year in Austin and challenge Oklahoma and TCU next season for Big 12 supremacy.
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