Daily Fantasy: Intro to Game Scripting

Welcome to the introductory discussion of game scripting for DFS. Each week of the NFL season, I will release game scripts for 2-3 of the highest Vegas game totals of the week plus another 2-3 “under the radar” games. Expect the game scripts to be released before Thursday night if the TNF game is included in the scripts or Friday at the latest if we are solely focusing on Sunday/Monday games. I want to get these out early enough so you can make your own narratives, but we know late breaking injuries can drastically alter our thought process when it comes to a player. As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news.

I wanted to write an intro explanation that will be linked to my weekly articles so people can fully understand the concepts being presented. Game scripting has a GPP focus and you will see a lot of overlap between the popular “stacking” strategy employed by tournament winners. It is essentially my narrative of the perceived likeliest outcome of an NFL game and how players will perform in order to achieve the game outcome. I also offer a contrarian point of view because while we can play the percentages on most likely outcome, we know that on “any given Sunday” anything can happen.

I think plenty of successful tournament players employ this strategy but don’t articulate it in this manner. It will be helpful to walk through a few examples from last season so you get a sense of the goal of the weekly article. One caveat, while my weekly articles will reference DraftKings prices, the thought process can be tailored to the other sites you play. It can even be used in season long fantasy for those tricky start/sit dilemmas use face for your roster.

EXAMPLE 1 from Week 11- 2018 Season:

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) (O/U 63.5 points):

Vegas Outcome:

• This is the marquee matchup for week 11. Vegas believes this will be a high scoring back and forth affair. Let’s not overthink this as a complete game stack is viable.

• KC Side: Not going to lean more heavy on run or pass, EVERYTHING is in play. Mahomes, Hunt, Hill, Kelce, are the obvious plays. For larger field tournaments or showdown slate can look at Conley or Robinson as pivot plays.

• LA Side: Same as KC, not favoring ground or air. I want shares of both. Need to find the right combination of Goff, Gurley, Cooks, Woods, and Reynolds. For larger field tourneys or showdown slate look at the Rams TE’s as a pivot.

Contrarian View:

• I am not going to get cute with this matchup. I am all in on the OVER and will not be fading any plays. However, I will have a few shares of the Defenses in case of Defensive/Special Teams touchdowns. Both teams capable of putting up points on that side of the ball and they will be very under owned.

EXAMPLE 2 from Week 11- 2018 Season:

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7) (O/U 52 points):

Vegas Outcome:

• Vegas has this tabbed as a high scoring affair but the Saints as a sizeable favorite. With the Eagles struggling lately and the Saints Defense stepping up, I see this as a one sided affair with the Saints covering the spread at home.

• PHI Side: I expect the Eagles to get down early and the Saints to take the air out of the ball. With the Saints Defense improving in recent weeks, this makes it a difficult spot to rely on any Eagles skill position players. This will be a hands off scenario for me.

• NO Side: I expect the Saints to get out to a lead early and lean on the run to bring home the W. Think this is a great spot for Kamara and Ingram. With the Eagles forced to air it out, the Saints D is also in play for me. I think the passing game is risky because if they don’t put up numbers in the first half, I don’t think they will be passing much in the 2^nd.

Contrarian View:

• Doubt he Eagles can win this game, BUT I do see a scenario where they keep it close. It this game stays within a touchdown heading into the 4^th quarter, it opens up more plays for us. 

• PHI Side: If the Eagles keep it close, I fully expect them to do it through the air. Even if they find success on the ground, it’s not profitable to try and guess which Eagles back gets the carries. I will consider a Wentz to a pass catcher stack (Ertz or Alshon). Or just include one of these pass catchers with a Saints mini stack discussed in the scripts. 

• NO Side: Nothing changes for the running game mentioned above if this game stays close as both backs will continue to eat and may catch a few more passes. What opens up for me is the potential for the passing game. Brees to (backs mentioned above) or Thomas/T. Smith are now viable. Will have a few lineups with various NO stacks and might bring it back with a piece of Philly passing game as well. 

Plenty of tournament players use Vegas lines to target plays, however, as I hope I illustrated above, not all high scoring games are created equal. You have to consider the implied team points based on spread. In my first example, I used the most obvious “NO SHIT- Play Everyone” script from the 2018 season. The type of games where I see no angle in fading are few and far between. Most games will have more nuance to them. Take example 2, another high scoring game people were on last year. Vegas didn’t see it being particularly close, and I thought the most likely outcome would be Saints in a landslide. I was right in that regard, however, if you review the box score, the Saints passing game was the SMASH spot (Kamara and Ingram got there but weren’t the GPP winning plays I thought). That’s why I provide a contrarian viewpoint as Vegas (where I will start my likeliest outcome analysis, sometimes I will flex a bit off it, sometimes I will follow it exactly) doesn’t always get it right. However, my contrarian view was slightly off on the Eagles so any stacks with them were dead as well. I had the pieces in place, just didn’t peg the game exactly as it played it. This will obviously happen plenty of times.

Example 2 brings up a good point, my game scripts aren’t meant to be the only way(s) an outcome will occur. It’s more of a guide on how to approach the game from a DFS perspective. If you believe in a different outcome than presented by me, that is great (and you will probably be more right than you would think), just make sure to ask yourself how your anticipated outcome will play out during the game.

Writing these scripts help me cross off games I deem untouchable (projected low scoring affairs with no value plays) and allow me to focus on the top matchups where I think GPP’s can be won or lost. I typically play in a 20 max GPP using my scripts for each slate (TNF-MNF, Early, Afternoon). However, these can easily be extrapolated to the 150 max contests or used in single entries. Thoroughly confused yet? As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter if you have any questions. Happy to walk through the process. Good luck in 2019!

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