Remember the first game of the 2021 NFL season? Fantasy players and sports bettors who had stock in the Cowboy’s passing game, whether Dak Prescott or Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, were very pleased. Maybe even smug. Dak was back. Zeke was iffy. The top two and highly hyped receivers were going to thrive.
Today’s reality is a different story. While Cooper and Lamb are by no means performing poorly, they are underwhelming their expectation after that first game. All of a sudden, tight end Dalton Schultz is eating up the lion’s share of receiving yards and scores. Zeke and the running game are top-notch, aided by the supplementing role of Tony Pollard.
The receiving possibilities in Dallas are a tangled knot of questions week to week. Which pass-catchers can be trusted to produce? A careful look into their intriguing divisional match-up against New York this week may help decide who can be relied upon.
Let’s Talk About Dak, Baby
215 yards. That’s the difference in total yards (passing and rushing) Prescott had in Week One, versus Week Four. That can partially be attributed to the Cowboys’ schedule and the fact that in that first game, they faced a terrorizing run defense. But what everyone is wondering with the way things are trending now is if Dak is going to be a top fantasy passer again or not?
Embed from Getty ImagesEven though Prescott’s passing attempts have declined each week, his seven touchdowns over the last three games rank him 7th in passing touchdowns per game during that time. Considering his favorable history with the Giants, this is looking like a real comeback opportunity for him.
Dak’s season-ending injury was sustained in his first matchup against New York last year. In 2019, though, Prescott averaged 331 passing yards and 3.5 touchdowns per game against the Giants. (He was also on pace for similar yardage in that fateful 2020 game prior to his injury.) The over/under for this game is 52 points, the 3rd highest matchup by odds this week. New York ranks in the top ten over the past three weeks in passing attempts allowed to their opposition with an average of 36 per game.
Schultz Getting Results
Dalton Schultz is going to be the main scoring man for Dallas this week. And not just because he has been the last two weeks, seeing the most targets and receptions of any receiver plus 138 yards and two scores. The real promise for Schultz this week lies in a weakness for the Giants.
New York has surrendered a touchdown to the tight end position in every game. They also rank in the top 10 in receptions allowed to tight ends with an average of six per game. Ironically, Schultz has acquired six receptions in each of the last two games. Strong safety Jabrill Peppers is currently nursing a hamstring injury and may not even participate in this week’s game. Even if he does play, Schultz has a huge advantage with him hobbled.
Dangerous Duo To Decipher
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter a hugely disappointing showing last week, Lamb should have a bounce-back game along with Prescott. Not only is Amari Cooper banged up, but Lamb had substantial success against the Giants last season (especially in that first game where Dak wound up hurt), averaging 84 yards per game in their divisional series. And despite the chemistry between Cooper and Prescott, Lamb is technically the top target in Dallas with 32 total and 264 yards on the season.
Lamb’s biggest issue will probably be Adoree’ Jackson with Peppers hurt (and likely responsible for stifling Schultz). Jackson has been the Giants’ best corner this season. Still, New York has been taken advantage of for an average of 260 receiving yards in their last three contests by teams not exactly hailed for their passing power – Washington, Atlanta, and New Orleans.
Cooper is the receiver who is bringing home the bacon for the Cowboys, however. He has three touchdowns and two more receptions than Lamb (22). Though these receivers are lining up all over the place, Cooper has been running out of the slot and will be seeing coverage from James Bradberry. Although Bradberry had success against Cooper last season, he’s regressed so far this year. 77% of passes thrown against Bradberry are being completed.
If Cooper was 100%, he would be the likely number two receiving candidate in this matchup despite Lamb’s history. But hamstrings are a tricky, lingering, and easily aggravated problem. Mike McCarthy will probably take it easy on him and use him more as a decoy in this game, considering his spotty practice participation this week.
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And That’s Not All…
Patrick Graham and his gang would have their hands full if those were the only threats against them this week, but they also have to deal with Cedric Wilson Jr., who has been a very adequate replacement for the injured Michael Gallup. He’s hit paydirt twice and caught nine of his eleven targets. It’s worth noting also that Wilson threw a touchdown to Prescott last season against the New York (insert evil laugh).
Oh, and did I mention Dallas’ run game….
Dak, Schultz, Lamb, Zeke, and Pollard are all very good fantasy starts this week. The over is steep but acceptable in this contest, as I’m leaning heavily on Dallas and taking their seven-point spread.
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