Will Damien Williams Return Value in Redraft Fantasy Football?

Polarizing players dominate offseason discussion and divide the fantasy football community into two camps: those who believe in a player and those who think he’s destined for failure. No player is more polarizing at their current ADP than Chiefs running back Damien Williams.

An undrafted free agent from Oklahoma, Williams’ NFL career got off to an inauspicious start. He spent his first four seasons in Miami, where he never saw more than 46 carries and 32 targets in a season. Dubbed a bust, Williams struggled to a 3.6 yards per carry average during his tenure with the Dolphins and failed to carve out a role.

After signing with the Chiefs in March of 2018, Williams took on a minimal backup role. Everything changed when the Chiefs cut star running back Kareem Hunt following the release of a video that showed him engaged in a physical altercation with a woman.

Williams ascended to the throne and didn’t look back. During Weeks 13-17 he averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game and claimed the overall RB5 spot. Was Williams’ new-found success a flash in the pan or a sign of things to come?

Looking at the positives and negatives surrounding Williams provides a snapshot of the player and his situation, which can then be used to determine if he will outperform or underperform his ADP.

Damien Williams: Pros

• Plays for the Chiefs, the highest-powered offense in the NFL which averaged 35.3 points per game in 2018. Situation matters.
• Sports a 95th percentile speed score – a key predictive metric used to identify lead back potential. At 5-11 and 222-pounds, his body mass index signals he’s built for a workhorse role.
• Plays in an Andy Reid offense, which have historically been productive for fantasy running backs.
• Possesses the most complete skill set of any back on the team.

Damien Williams: Cons

• Undrafted out of college and had one season of workhorse collegiate production at Oklahoma.
• Unproven NFL journeyman with a small sample size of success; has never operated in a lead role.
• Potential to lose touches to Carlos Hyde, Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson.

Scenario 1: Williams Outperforms His ADP

Taking the 18.7 fantasy points per game Williams averaged down the stretch last season and compiling that number through 16 games yields 299 fantasy points. That mark would have made Williams the overall RB5 on the season, right behind Ezekiel Elliot (329 fantasy points). Considering where Williams is being drafted – according to FantasyPros consensus ADP he’s going 24th overall (RB13) – if he keeps his 2018 pace for a full season it will yield a huge return on investment.

Built for an every-down role, Williams also possesses elite receiving skills evidenced by his career mark of 8.3 yards per reception. For comparison, Christian McCaffrey’s career mark is 8.1 yards per reception. A nod to his overall efficiency Williams ranked second with a +42.5 production premium, a PlayerProfiler metric that weighs productivity over league-average situations. He’ll shine in an offense that utilizes short passes to running backs designed to allow them to create yards after the catch.

Using data from Fantasy Data dating back to 2002, Andy Reid-coached teams produced a top-10 PPR fantasy running back in 10 of 17 seasons. During the top-10 seasons, those backs averaged 230 touches, 1,095 rushing yards, eight rush TDs, 554 receiving yards and four receiving TDs. In Kareem Hunt’s lead back tenure he dominated touches, garnering 532 compared to 251 for all other backs. He finished 2018 as the RB12 despite playing 11 games. These numbers further tip the scales in Williams’ favor.

The probability of a challenge from his backfield mates is low. Carlos Hyde’s career numbers of 4.0 yards per attempt and 5.6 yards per reception don’t instill confidence. In his “best” season in 2017, he had the most dropped passes among running backs (eight) and also posted the worst receiving plus-minus, per Football Outsiders.

While Darwin Thompson impressed in his lone season at Utah State with 1,395 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs, it’s fair to question the level of defensive talent he faced in a weak conference. His JUCO beginning, an underwhelming speed score, and below-average body mass index also raise red flags in regards to his potential.

Second-year pro Darrel Williams saw action in only three games in 2018, so there are not many clues on his usage. He does not appear to be a threat to steal significant touches.

Probability of Scenario 1: 70%

Scenario 2: Williams Underperforms His ADP

Too small a sample size of success coupled with four seasons in Miami when he could not wrest control of lead back duties don’t bode well for Williams’ outlook. He’s never handled a full workload at the NFL level, maxing out at 73 touches last season, and is six seasons removed from the only time he eclipsed 1,000 total yards (junior year at Oklahoma).

He enters the 2019 season at age 27 in foreign territory for a breakout running back candidate. Williams is also dealing with a hamstring injury and has yet to practice at training camp. A 12-year sample of 96 running backs in their age 27 season revealed that’s the age when a decline in top-5 upside begins. Those players finished inside the top-5 3.3-percent of the time.

It’s possible that the Chiefs will deploy the dreaded running back by committee. Williams faces competition from seasoned veteran Carlos Hyde, sophomore Darrel Williams and rookie Darwin Thompson, the sixth-round pick from Mountain WAC Utah State. Hyde has proven he’s a durable back who can carry a full load: he eclipsed 1,000 total yards in the 2016 and 2017 seasons with San Francisco under coach Kyle Shanahan.

Thompson is a dynasty darling who started his college career in JUCO before playing one season at Division I Utah State. He tallied 1,395 total yards (1,044 rushing, 351 receiving) and 16 TDs. Thompson averaged a robust 6.8 yards per carry and 15.3 yards per reception en route to leading the conference in a litany of categories.

It’s unclear how the Chiefs plan to utilize Darrel Williams. The undrafted second-year pro from LSU played three games last season (Weeks 14-16). He posted solid collegiate yards per carry (5.7) and target share (69th percentile) marks.

Probability of Scenario 2: 30%

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