Deeper Dig: The Search For Year 2 WR Breakouts

The 2020 rookie WR class received a major buzz and it was warranted.  Justin Jefferson led a star-studded class while putting up numbers that ring with hallowed fantasy superstars like Randy Moss, Odell Beckham Jr., and Anquan Bolden.  The draft saw 8 WRs in the top 34 picks and guys like CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk and Tee Higgins led the way as every rookie taken that high showed enough flashes to expect them to hit.  But once we get past Chase Claypool at pick 49, the projections get a bit dicier.  With the 2020 regular season in the books, it’s time to see where some of the other buzzy names stand.

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Denzel Mims, WR, New York Jets, Pick 59

I am not sure there is a name that has popped up more frequently as a dynasty buy on Twitter lately.  And believe me, I want to buy in too.  Mims was a very entertaining player at Baylor, a physical presence in the Big 12, a league not known for physicality.  But I have been watching and waiting for any flash and despite increased snap counts to end the season, I have yet to see it.

I see several red flags in Mims’ “Buy Low” status.  First off, the Jets offense is not one I want to buy into currently.  Now that the ship has sailed on Trevor Lawrence, the team is almost surely going with Sam Darnold or a rookie like Justin Fields or Zach Wilson.  The next assumption is Mims is assumed to step into a “go-to” receiver role moving forward, however, the Jets lead the league in an interesting category: 2021 projected cap space.  The 2021 wide receiver market is star-studded: Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster lead the list and an argument could be made for any of them walking from their current team.  The Jets have a front-row seat in the division to the impact Stefon Diggs made on Josh Allen’s development.  Any one of those players changes the Jets WR room dramatically, stepping in as the clear alpha.  Jamison Crowder (slot) and Breshad Perriman (deep threat) would have defined roles while Mims could find himself struggling for targets.  What is currently viewed as a “buy low” could very quickly turn into a high-water point in value.

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 Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams, Pick 57

Jefferson has quickly become the forgotten name in the top 60 picks.  Given his current status on the depth chart, it’s easy to see why.  Jefferson has been buried behind the Rams top three WRs (Woods, Kupp, Josh Reynolds) on an offense that runs 12 personnel (27% of snaps) as much as any in the league.  But the Rams find themselves in the opposite position of the Jets in terms of 2021 cap space.  The Rams’ have given out as many big contracts as any team in the league and currently find themselves 27^th in projected cap space with two key offensive players, Reynolds and TE Gerald Everett headed for UFA they are going to need younger players to step up.  You will not be able to find a cheaper year 2 player with round 2 draft capital destined to step into a bigger role than Jefferson, who could find himself an injury to Woods or Kupp away from a top 2 WR in an offense known to create multiple valuable WR options.

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Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears, Pick 173

Mooney is a fun player to watch, with his slight frame and ability to beat nearly anyone deep it is easy to have visions of DeSean Jackson dance in your mind.  And with TDs in weeks 14 and 15, plus 1,050 air yards good for 33^rd in the league you can see where projections of a true breakout can form.  But everything is relative and a lot of the excitement surrounding him is attributable to the acquisition price.  A player who likely went undrafted in rookie drafts is viewed as found money, that equation changes dramatically if you are talking about trade price or redraft.  Until the Bears show a willingness to scheme ways to get the ball into Mooney’s hands, I think PlayerProfiler.com has him nailed with a Paul Richardson comp.  A guy I would love to have as a depth WR in best-ball leagues but one who will drive you mad with a low floor when you need to set him in a lineup.

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Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills, Pick 128

This is a total homer pick, so I apologize in advance.  The Gabriel Davis hype train is leaving the station and I would advise you to hop aboard if you can.  John Brown’s injury opened the door wide for Davis to emerge with the Buffalo WR corps and he has run with the opportunity.  He’s played the most snaps of any WR for the Bills the last 5 weeks of the season and his 6touchdowns are good for 18^th in the league.  But anyone who has watched the Bills know that’s just scratching the surface, Davis has had 3 more TDs called back due to penalties and helped secure a week 3 win vs the Rams drawing a PI in the endzone at the end of the game.  It’s not often you can acquire a rookie who is playing nearly every snap for one of the most productive offenses in football and ranks near the top in touchdowns under the radar.  But to sweeten the pot, the John Brown could find himself a cap casualty in the offseason, completely clearing the way for Davis to move forward as a top 2 target for the Bills.  Davis is a player whose profile could take off if he plays a key role in a lengthy Bills playoff run.

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Bryan Edwards, WR, Las Vegas Raiders, Pick 81

Edwards is a tough player to assess value on.  He was a standout player in the SEC, who came on the camp radar in a big way, drawing comparisons to Derek Carr’s college teammate Davante Adams.  But the train did not quite leave the station, he left his best performance (week 3 vs New England, 48 receiving yards) via injury, which is nothing new with Edwards has he struggled to stay healthy throughout college.  That allowed Nelson Agholor to break out with the best season of his career.  The Raiders receiver room is crowded, but absent Darren Waller at TE, there is a real opportunity for a number 1 WR to emerge.  He stands a hold for me currently, the camp buzz is going to make it hard for an owner to sell low but it isn’t hard to see 2021 shaping up similar to 2020, with Waller leading the way and the WRs sniping value from each other.  However, Edwards stands as the most obvious candidate in this class for the classic “3^rd-year breakout”, similar to, you guessed it:  Davante Adams.

Other WRs worth mentioning:

Freddie Swain, WR, Seattle Seahawks, Pick 214

Swain has flashed at times, with an SEC pedigree and a potential opening on the Seahawks roster for WR could present a similar situation to his college teammate Jefferson, a stash with huge upside with just one injury.

Quintez Cephus, WR, Detroit Lions, Pick 166

Cephus could be in a position to rocket in value due solely to opportunity.  Both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are slated for free agency and the Lions seem headed for a rebuild.  I’m skeptical Cephus is a special player in hiding, despite a very productive college career he tested poorly, but the opportunity is half the battle in fantasy, especially in deeper leagues.

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