Derrius Guice is Still the Number 2 Dynasty Rookie Asset

A dynasty fantasy football league is a league where you retain most or all of your players from year to year.  This creates an environment which is very different from that of a redraft league.  By enabling team owners to keep players and build a team over time, there is a much stronger sense of team ownership. Success is achieved with a greater sense of satisfaction. – www.dynastyleaguefootball.com

I stopped worrying about dynasty rookie draft slots in July when my last draft completed.  Either due to personal evaluation or preseason news, you can expect a player’s value to swing a slot or two.  You may see bigger swings in rookies drafted in later rounds, but at this point in the season, the top rookies should be close to static.  I was quite shocked when I saw a tweet in my timeline start, “I just drafted [Derrius] Guice and [Sony] Michel at 1.07 and 1.08 in a PPR dynasty draft this morning.”  While I think that is a little low for Sony Michel, 1.07 for Derrius Guice is pure thievery, and it shows that people are doing dynasty wrong.

Guice is listed as the number two rookie by three of the four Goingfor2.com dynasty analysts.  Since February, he has been the number two rookie taken in dynasty adp as collected by dynastyleaguefootball.com and is also listed as number two by dynastyhappyhour.com.  Despite “dropping” in the NFL draft and being picked behind six other running backs, Guice landed in a prime landing spot in Washington, where Guice is undoubtedly at the top of the depth chart.  Guice excelled in a touch collegiate football conference, the SEC.  In 2016 he led the SEC in rushing yards and touchdowns.   Those numbers tapered slightly in 2017 but heading into the draft, but Guice was still poised as a top prospect.  Character issues were cited as the reason for his fall in the NFL draft, but as far as fantasy players were concerned, Guice was still worthy of taking at the top of your dynasty drafts.

The dynasty season is a long one, it only ends when the next season begins.  The only respite some players get occurs when www.myfantasyleague.com shuts down a few days for maintenance.  This is one reason the format is appealing, you can tinker with your team and send trades every day.  The other big reason is, you can build your team for long term growth.  This is the heart of the issue with letting Guice fall to 1.07.  I understand that Guice is out for the year with an injury, that’s unfortunate.  However, if you are building for long term, should that matter?  Shouldn’t you be taking the best player available?  Does this injury necessitate a five spot drop?  I could maybe understand if the injury occurred pre-NFL draft before we had any news from OTAs or training camp, but this injury occurred in the first preseason game after which Guice was in high spirits in the locker room and didn’t think the injury was serious.  We have also seen the progress players have made in coming back from this injury, such as Todd Gurley.  I could see a one spot drop if he was tiered with someone else, but it’s not like these other first round rookies don’t have their own warts at this point in the season:

Rashaad Penny – is potentially backing up Chris Carson.

Nick Chubb – is sharing the backfield with Carlos Hyde.

Royce Freeman – hasn’t clearly beat out Devontae Booker for the starting role.

Ronald Jones – is losing to Peyton Barber in his backfield.

DJ Moore – is competing for targets with Devin Funchess, Greg Olsen, Christian McCaffrey.

If you are dropping Guice for missing the season, are you confident that any of the above players will provide your team with enough points to contribute this season?

If you earned the 1.02 rookie draft spot, there is no one who you can take that will make you a competitor this season.  You should be taking the best player available so that next year you’ll be closer to competing.  If the injury or landing spot is a concern, trade out of the pick altogether.  Grab an established asset or trade back and pick up more picks/players.  By allowing Guice to drop to the seventh spot, all you did was bolster an existing layoff team’s roster.

At the end of the day, you should be building your dynasty roster with the best players that will allow you to compete for a championship within a suitable time frame.  By not drafting Guice with the 1.02, you are not only a team a disservice, but you are making one of your competitors better.

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