DFS MLB DraftKings/FanDuel Lineup Advice and Pitcher Chart 7/30/2018
Pitchers
For the Pitcher Chart as well as Hitter picks and analysis, click NEXT!
Top Priced Pitchers
I’m interested to see how ownership works out on Monday, as I don’t like any of the top pitchers on this slate in cash games. Gerrit Cole is the top option, but $12,800 against the Mariners seems like he’s overpriced. James Paxton is coming off of an injury so I’m concerned about his effectiveness. Additionally, he’ll face the Astros, so I don’t feel comfortable paying $9,600. Kenta Maeda is on my radar for tournaments, but with the addition of Mike Moustakas, the Brewers offense is improved. With Moustakas in the lineup, the Brewers sent down two of their highest strikeout players (Brad Miller/Keon Broxton), making their 24.2% strikeout rate a bit of a mirage. Finally, Aaron Nola will travel to face the Boston Red Sox in Fenway Park. Not only is it a fantastic hitters park and the Red Sox are the league’s second best offense, Nola will not have the luxury facing a pitcher in the American League. I will be fading each of the top four pitchers in cash games.
Robbie Ray
Ray will face the Rangers in Chase Field. He’s the biggest favorite on the slate and has an OTT (see pitcher chart) of 3.5. He has a strikeout rate over 30% this season and the Rangers punch out at the fourth highest rate in the league. The Rangers take a big park hit in this game and will also lose their DH. Ray will be my cash game SP1.
Derek Holland
Holland will face the Padres in Petco Park. He has an OTT of 3.5 as well, and the Padres have the highest strikeout rate in the league at 25.5%. Holland has improved his strikeouts this season, averaging more than a strikeout per inning. He’s priced at $7,600, putting him firmly in play for cash games. Pairing Ray and Holland gives you $4,300 per bat to fill out the rest of your lineup.
For the Pitcher Chart as well as Hitter picks and analysis, click NEXT!
Pitcher Chart
To see my favorite hitters for today’s slate, click NEXT!
The pitching chart will be updated often. Make sure to check back for the newest information, especially if a column is currently incomplete!
Last Updated: 7/30/2018 – 11:47 AM CT
| Pitcher | Team | L/R | $Line | OTT | K | +/- | K% | IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Chen | MIA | L | +152 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 17.7 | 5 1/3 |
| J. Teheran | ATL | R | -165 | 4.5 | 5 | 0.5 | 21.9 | 5 2/3 |
| T. Anderson | COL | L | +125 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22.7 | 5 2/3 |
| C. Martinez | STL | R | -135 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 20.9 | 5 1/3 |
| F. Peralta | MIL | R | +150 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 33.1 | 5 1/3 |
| K. Maeda | LAD | R | -163 | 3.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 29.4 | 5 2/3 |
| D. Holland | SFG | L | -108 | 3.5 | 5 | 1.5 | 24.1 | 5 2/3 |
| E. Lauer | SDP | L | -100 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 19.2 | 5 |
| S. Bieber | CLE | R | -129 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 22.6 | 5 2/3 |
| E. Santana | MIN | R | +119 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 21.7 | 5 1/3 |
| M. Estrada | TOR | R | +143 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 18.6 | 5 2/3 |
| E. Jackson | OAK | R | -155 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 19 | 5 1/3 |
| G. Cole | HOU | R | -108 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 35.3 | 6 1/3 |
| J. Paxton | SEA | L | -100 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 3 | 32.2 | 6 |
| A. Nola | PHI | R | +136 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 26 | 6 |
| D. Price | BOS | L | -147 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 24 | 5 2/3 |
| M. Perez | TEX | L | +190 | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 12.8 | 5 |
| R. Ray | ARI | L | -208 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 4 | 30.8 | 6 |
Key
L/R = Lefty or Righty
$Line = Money Line
OTT = Opposing team’s run total
K = Projected Strikeouts
+/- = K-OTT
K% = Strikeout Percentage
IP = Innings Projection
Many factors can change between the time I write this article and the time lineups lock. I’ll do my best to update the article, so checking back frequently is encouraged. You can also ask questions on Twitter or Facebook. I’ll do my best to get to all of them!
To see my favorite hitters for today’s slate, click NEXT!
Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt/Diamondbacks
Goldschmidt will face Martin Perez in Chase Field. He’ll have the platoon advantage and Perez has a low strikeout rate. While it’s significantly above his career average, Perez has also allowed 1.99 HR/9 this season. I expect this number to regress, especially outside of the Arlington heat, but it’s possible it continues against a power hitter like Goldschmidt. There are a lot of good pitchers on this slate who I typically don’t target with my bats, so I’ll likely have a few Diamondbacks in my cash game lineup against Perez. A.J. Pollock is expensive, but with my extra salary from saving on pitching, I may have room for him in my outfield. Steven Souza is a solid value play at $4,100 on DraftKings, and is one of my favorite value plays on the slate. A full Diamondbacks stack is one of the top tournament options.
Justin Bour/Derek Dietrich
Bour will face Julio Teheran in SunTrust Park. I likely won’t have a Marlins stack in tournaments as Teheran is a solid pitcher, but he’s struggled against lefties throughout his career. Teheran has a .269 wOBA against righties, but a .342 wOBA against lefties. Bour is typically underrated and underpriced, and for $4,000 on DraftKings, I’ll take a shot at him in tournaments. I have no issue using Bour in cash games either, but I’ll probably have the salary for Goldschmidt. Derek Dietrich is interesting as well, especially if he’s leading off. Although I still prefer Bour, its interesting that Dietrich actually has a higher wOBA than Bour this season.
J.D. Martinez
Yesterday, Martinez saw his price drop $1,100 when he faced Jose Berrios in Fenway Park. He was roughly 15% owned in GPPs on DraftKings. Many considered Berrios a tough matchup, but Martinez is a top five hitter in all of baseball. Martinez has seen his price rise to $5,300 today and will face Aaron Nola in Fenway Park. I expect his ownership to be lower than it was on Sunday, making Martinez one of my favorite tournament plays on the slate. I think he’s a fringe cash game option, and while Nola is a difficult matchup, Martinez has shown the ability to overcome those matchups and provide upside for tournament lineups.
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