DFS MLB DraftKings GPP Lineup Advice: Friday 3/30/18

DFS MLB DraftKings GPP Lineup Advice: Friday 3/30/18

Hopefully, Opening Day was kind to you and you cashed in on some lineups! It was an entertaining start to the season with a lot of offense being showcased. As we move onto the second day of the season, there were a couple of key takeaways we can use to improve on lineup construction.
Tonight’s slate involves a much less desirable group of starting pitchers which will funnel ownership to the top tier, which is also risky. There is also a lot of great hitting situations to discover. Let’s dive into the DraftKings nine-game slate.

Pitchers

Overview:

As mentioned above, there are not a lot of great pitching options. All of the top tier hurlers have warts and we will have to navigate through them. Alex Wood does not go deep enough into games to warrant a $10,400 price tag. The health of David Price is still in question. Far too risky to invest in a guy who missed most of last year. Kyle Hendricks lacks the strikeout upside we need to win a GPP. Masahiro Tanaka is interesting. Dallas Keuchel is solid, but is he really worth $3,000 more than Robbie Ray?

Top 5 GPP Pitchers (point per dollar):

1.) Robbie Ray $8,700 vs. COL
2.) Masahiro Tanaka $9,400 @ TOR
3.) Dallas Keuchel $11,800 @ TEX
4.) Aaron Sanchez $7,000 vs. NYY
5.) Nick Pivetta $6,100 @ ATL

Robbie Ray (ARI): $8,700 vs. COL 
The price on Robbie Ray is almost criminal. He is the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel, yet sixth highest on DraftKings. In a great matchup, at home, Ray should not only get the win but put up seven or eight strikeouts in six innings of work. As a floor. Of all pitchers on this slate, Ray is the leader in K% (32.8%). Among all MLB qualified pitchers last season, the D-Backs ace was second in K/9 (12.11), only to Chris Sale. The Rockies are a team who strikeout a lot and Ray should have no problem finding outs. Lastly, and there has been a lot of debate about this, the humidor factor. There is reason to believe that with the installation of the humidor in Chase Field, homeruns will be harder to come by. Time will tell, but this can only be helpful for pitchers in Arizona. Ray will most likely be the highest owned pitcher on the slate. I am comfortable eating the chalk and finding lower-owned players elsewhere.

Aaron Sanchez (TOR): $7,000 vs. NYY
Like here. In a daunting matchup, Aaron Sanchez will be extremely low-owned. Giancarlo Stanton hit two homeruns yesterday and the Yankees went on to a 6-1 win. The difference today is that Aaron Sanchez has some of the nastiest stuff among starting pitchers. Last year he fell victim to the blisters and was unable to pitch on a consistent basis. His fastball touches mid to high 90’s with a ton of movement. He had an incredible spring training and finally looks ready for a breakout season. The Yankees have a lot of strikeouts in the lineup. J.A. Happ is a solid pitcher, not as good as Sanchez, and he still managed five strikeouts in 4.2 innings of work. Sanchez could easily go five or six innings with six or seven strikeouts. Even if he allows a couple of long balls, he will pay off value at a low cost.

Hitters

Overview:

A lot of the chalk did not hit yesterday. Outside of George Springer, the Astros were a bust. Baltimore needed extra innings to finally get a homerun. The big Angels bats gave us a zero. Milwaukee needed a 12th inning single to produce their second run in what should have been a huge game. The Indians and Dodgers also came up short. Recency bias is a thing and going back to the well is a great strategy for low ownership.

Top 5 stacks:

1.) Milwaukee Brewers
2.) Chicago Cubs
3.) LA Angels
4.) Arizona Diamondbacks
5.) Philadelphia Phillies / Atlanta Braves (game stack)

Catcher

Brian McCann (HOU): $3,400 @ TEX
Let’s give Houston a second chance. Former Astro Doug Fister will take the mound for Texas. Although he pitched quite well in the second half of the season with Boston last year, his numbers on the year were still underwhelming. He struggles most with left-handed power, owning a .365 wOBA against lefties. Brian McCann hit ninth in the order yesterday, but given the platoon advantage, he should sneak up higher in the order. Spending down at pitcher and catcher will allow us to spend up for the expensive power-bats in great spots.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI): $5,000 vs. COL 
Of the most elite hitters in the MLB, Paul Goldschmidt goes overlooked and under-owned more than anyone in his tier. He is an RBI machine, hitting in the heart of a potent offense, in a great ballpark. Goldy is coming off of an incredibly powerful season posting a .265 ISO, .400 wOBA, and 142 wRC+. He also added 18 stolen bases for good measure. The D-backs are facing a relatively unproven starting pitcher in Tyler Anderson who had a 19.5 HR/FB% and allowed a .358 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He will struggle to slow the offense in Arizona and Goldschmidt should thrive.

Second Base

Cesar Hernandez (PHI): $3,800 @ ATL
My personal DFS darling is in another great spot after hitting a homerun yesterday. Not necessarily known for power upside, Cesar Hernandez was forgotten about after all of the offseason noise around Ozzie Albies and Scott Kingery. The switch-hitter and the rest of the Phillies will see Mike Foltynewicz. Folty is one of those extreme splits pitchers who gets pummeled by left-handed hitters. Owning a .393 wOBA to lefties at home, targeting all left-handed hitters for the Phillies are worth consideration. Hernandez is more of an on-base and stolen base kind of guy, however, he does show power upside.

Third Base

Travis Shaw (MIL): $4,300 @ SD
After disappointing fantasy owners yesterday, the entire Brew Crew are in consideration tonight. Adding Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich to the lineup, there will be plenty of RBI opportunities for the Brewers third base slugger. Coming off of 31 homeruns and 101 RBI’s last season, his situation has only improved. The Brewers will take on a 25-year-old prospect, Joey Lucchesi. With only 60 innings pitched in AA and 0 in AAA, Lucchesi does not have a lot of statistics to go off of. We do know that he has never pitched in the big leagues though and this is a terrifying lineup to make your first appearance against. The top half of the order is a great stack this evening.

Shortstop

J.P. Crawford (PHI): $3,500 @ ATL
Once regarded as a top prospect in all of baseball, J.P. Crawford looks as though he is in the MLB to stay. After a lot of time in the minors, Crawford has shown incredible plate discipline (18.4 BB%) leading to other fantasy production. His power numbers are still in question. However, Foltynewicz will help all lefty bats in this game, which includes Crawford. Yesterday hitting in the six hole, J.P. walked and scored a run. There should be more RBI opportunities tonight with the lefty-heavy hitters Philadelphia will roll out.

Outfield

A.J. Pollock (ARI): $4,600 vs. COL
The outfielder is the second piece to a D-backs mini-stack who compliments Paul Goldschmidt very well. Hitting second, in front of Goldy, we are hoping the 2015 A.J. Pollock comes back. We have seen his ceiling (20 HR’s, 101 runs, 79 RBI’s, 39 stolen bases, .338 AVG in 2015) by contributing in all categories. He finally looks healthy and ready to get back to the star he was.

Mike Trout (LAA): $5,200 @ OAK
The best player in baseball went 0-6 yesterday in a great matchup. Such is DFS. It can happen, and we have to learn to embrace the variance. Hopefully, those who rostered Trout yesterday will shy away from playing him again. He is a fantastic pivot off of Giancarlo Stanton who undoubtedly will garner even more ownership after yesterdays outing. The Angels are an improved offense and there should be no doubt that Mike Trout is a top play each and every night.

Justin Upton (LAA): $4,500 @ OAK
The other star player to go hitless yesterday was Justin Upton. When the Angels score five runs, it is hard to believe both Trout and Upton did not contribute. Well, today is a different day, with a different pitcher to target. Oakland will have Sean Manaea take the mound. Last season, Manaea struggled at times posting a 4.51 SIERA while giving up a 33.3% hard-contact rate. With a .347 wOBA to right-handed hitters, the power righties (Trout and Upton) should find success. The popular trend will be to pay up for Stanton, Judge, and other big-name power bats. The west coast teams always go under-owned for no other reason than the start time of the game. Load up the Angels power bats with confidence.

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