DFS MLB FanDuel Home Run Predictions 5/21/19

Swingin’ for the Fences 

Hey guys! You may remember me towards the end of the NBA regular season doing write-ups but with that drawing to a close, it’s time for me to jump into some baseball. MLB is one of the more exciting sports to take part in for DFS, surprisingly enough, as your lineup could go from 0 to 100 with the swing of a bat….and that’s why we’re here. I’m going to be continuing this piece for you all, trying to find that dinger we need to rocket those lineups to the top. I will list two per section and try to diversify the games that are mentioned so without further ado, let’s get right into it.

Catcher/Corner Infield

Freddie Freeman – $4,400 vs SFG (Anderson)

I will admit that this isn’t exactly the greatest environment for calling the long ball but I feel like I’m in a safe zone with Freeman. Over his last 12 games, he’s hit at a .375 clip with 5 bombs. While he is in quite possibly the worst ballpark for LHBs, he’s aided by a projected 20 mph wind blowing out to right and with Freeman’s power, that should be more than enough help to clear the wall. Anderson is a 2 pitch pony with a fastball and slider and I believe Freeman catches one of them tonight for a 4-bagger.

Jason Castro – $3,300 vs LAA (Cahill)

If there’s one thing that Cahill has struggled with this season, it’s been the long ball. He’s tied for the league lead in HRs allowed and let’s LHBs bash him at a .350 clip. Meanwhile, Castro has found his power stroke, hitting all 7 of his HRs within the last month with four of them in the last two weeks, leading him to have an insane ISO of .609 over that stretch. The wind is in his favor tonight (14 mph out to right center) so things line up quite well for the 31 year old.

Middle Infield

Gleyber Torres – $3,600 vs BAL (Hess)

While Hess hasn’t been all too terrible in terms of opposing batting average, he has been one of the absolutely worst at keeping the ball inside the park, giving up 14 HRs in just over 40 IP, tied for most in the league. He allows a whopping 64% flyball rate as well as 40% hard contact to RHBs. Lucky for us, Camden Yards is an extremely advantageous park for RHBs and 11 of the long balls Hess has given up have been to those on the right side of the plate. Enter Torres, who is hitting .304 against RHP on the season and is coming off a 2 HR game. He’s posted a .316 ISO over the last two weeks and a wOBA of .492. All things considered, I would only be mildly surprised if he double donged once again today.

Whit Merrifield – $3,800 vs STL (Wacha)

Wacha has been shaky at best to start this season, giving up 3+ runs in half his starts while walking 3+ in five of them. He’s shown a noticeable split in favor of righties so far with RHBs batting .284 against him and owning 6 of his 8 HRs given up. The Royals do lack power in general but they do have one very good right handed bat in Merrifield. He’s quite due for a HR but he comes into this game in solid form, batting .306 over his last 12 games with a .180 ISO and 131 wRC+. Merrifield hasn’t been getting cheated either as he has a line drive rate of 35% over this stretch and just a 12% soft contact rate. There will be rain late in the game but there will also be very strong winds blowing out to left. So cross your fingers and hope he makes you merry tonight.

Outfield

Ian Desmond – $2,800 vs PIT (Archer)

Archer’s had a rough go at it so far this season and that was evident in his last start against the Diamondbacks, getting rocked for 6 runs. Now he gets a matchup against the power stacked Rockies and something tells me he’s due to give up another bomb. Desmond doesn’t quite pan out on paper as a RHB but he’s quietly been swinging a very hot bat, going 9-26 with 3 walks over the last two weeks and is facing a pitcher who’s allowed a .356 wOBA to RHBs so far this season. Desmond also happens to be crushing the three main pitches Archer has in his arsenal – the fastball, curve, and change. The Rockies are away from Coors and Desmond’s splits may further increase ownership but I think he goes yard today.

Hunter Pence – $3,900 vs SEA (Milone)

Tommy Milone was spotted warming up with the team’s starting pitchers yesterday so it would seem like he has been called up from AAA to make the start. Over his last two seasons, he has held massive splits against righties, allowing a batting batting average of .363 to RHBs. Pence is one of the few righties Texas has in their lineup and he’s been providing a bevy of run support. He’s clubbed 3 bombs in the last 7 games and is enjoying a resurgent year with the Rangers. It doesn’t hurt that he’s playing in the ever-warm state of Texas and a hitter-friendly ballpark. He’s also been one of the team’s hottest hitters. While Milone has done moderately well so far in the minors, I expect there to be some bombs given up against a power team in a hitter’s ballpark.

You’ve reached the end of the article! I know it’s a bit short considering we have 15 games on tap but these are the guys that I feel most strongly about. There will definitely be more power to be had. If you’re looking for those pitchers to exploit, check those splits, contact, and FB/GB rates to help narrow down that pool. Hopefully this article helps you towards your lineup construction. Good luck!

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