DFS MLB FanDuel Home Run Predictions 5/22/19

Swingin’ for the Fences 

Sometimes when you swing for it all, you come empty and unfortunately, I went ofer yesterday. Cahill suddenly turned into an ace. The wrong Yankee hit two….one got rained out….well, you get the idea. Fact is that things like this will happen rather often but we got to have a short term memory and keep attacking and that’s exactly what I hope you will do. We got 11 games on the docket with much less rain and much more sun so hopefully that leads to happier results.

Before we start off, I will say that the Yankees have been absolutely blessed by the pitching matchups in this series in such a hitter friendly venue. Today they get someone who is somehow even worse than Hess. Anyone and everyone in pinstripes who sees the field has a good shot at hitting it out. Now, I’ll be listing at least two per position grouping and will try not to pick from the same games so with that out of the way, let’s get to it.

Catcher/Corner Infield

Josh Bell – $4,400 vs COL (Gray)

Bell has been one of my favorite go-to guys so far this season for easy production. He’s a rare switch hitting slugger that doesn’t really have a weakness as far as pitches goes. Gray, meanwhile, has struggled to regain any form, going less than 5 innings in his last start and giving up yet another HR. He’s given up 10 so far this season and allowed one in all but one of his starts. Bell has been absolutely crushing the ball over the last couple weeks, hitting a white hot .440 with a .440 ISO and 261 wRC+. If Gray is to continue his pattern, Bell should continue to crush it.

Jason Castro – $3,300 vs LAA (Harvey)

I’m going back to the well on this one. While Harvey did surprise all of us with his last outing against the Royals, I am still going to bet against him here, which hurts me to say as an Angels fan. Harvey is yet another past-his-prime pitcher who has splits in favor of LHBs. On the season, lefties have hit Harvey at a .273 clip with a .395 wOBA, 35.6% line drive rate, and 56% hard contact rate. Castro is one of the better power lefties this team has to offer so I will roll the dice with him once more.

Middle Infield

Javier Baez – $4,000 vs PHI (Irvin)

With someone like Irvin who we know very little about, we got to turn to who hits that hand better and matches up with the pitches. For the Cubs, that man is none other than Javi Baez. He’s far and away been the Cubs’ premier bat against left handed pitching, chugging along at a .464 clip. He’s shown us quite a few times the pop he has in his bat and I like his chances of showcasing that today. While Irvin is a solid rookie in his own right, this is by far the most daunting matchup he’s had yet and there’s the fact that a 14 mph wind will be blowing out to left center. I’m expecting Baez to find a nice looking pitch to knock out tonight.

Carlos Correa – $4,100 vs CWS (Nova)

There have been 4 games this season where Nova showed flashes of his old Yankee self and there are games like the one he had last Friday. I don’t know about you but I’m leaning towards the latter happening. He’s been extremely hit or miss this season but the only hits that I see him achieving are hard contact hits that leave the yard. Correa has a hard contact rate of over 56% over the last two weeks, reaching base in 10 consecutive games in this span along with 3 multi-hit performances. Correa possesses massive power to left and center field which only spells good things as Minute Maid has one of the shortest dimensions down the left field line and there is a 16 mph wind going out to straightaway center. It’s hard to envision him not having success in this spot.

Outfield

Billy McKinney – $2,300 vs BOS (Porcello)

This is a hop, jump, skip, and a flight away from being a lock-and-load play but it’s more of a feeling with this one. Porcello has struggled a bit in keeping the ball inside the park (9 HRs allowed) and, so far this season, has struggled mightily at home, giving up over a run an inning. Lefties are the way to attack Porcello; however, the Blue Jays bats have been rather blue outside of yesterday’s outburst so I’m rather hesitant to suggest even Smoak, who’s had decent history against Porcello. That being said, McKinney has been their 2nd best overall hitter over the last two weeks and has absolutely mashed the slider, one of Porcello’s main pitches. It also doesn’t hurt that the Centre has some very friendly dimensions down the line. If you’re running multiple lines, I think he has enough lining up for him to be a low owned and cheap power play.

Alex Gordon – $3,700 vs STL (Wainwright)

With the rain now out of the way, the forecast projects the game time temp to be 84 degrees with a ton of sunlight and a ton of strong winds out to left. The way to attack Wainwright is with lefties and the timing could not be better for Gordon to get back on the HR train. He has the team’s highest wRC+ over the last two weeks (159), batting .286 with an ISO of .286. Meanwhile, LHBs are hitting Wainwright to the tune of .329 with 5 long balls in just under 19 innings. What caught my eye even more is how much Gordon has MURDERED cutters over the last couple weeks (pitch value of 31.76) and what do you know….the cutter is one of Wainwright’s main “weapons.” He’s an offspeed pitcher and Gordon does just fine with that. Gordon should have no problem rocketing a Wainwright pitch into the bleachers.

That does it for tonight’s slate! Hopefully tonight goes better that it did the last. Good luck!

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