DFS MLB FanDuel Home Run Predictions 5/26/19

Swingin’ for the Fences 

The good news so far is that my picks have been batting like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was to start the season and he’s batting .230 now so we have hope for improvement. The bad news is that we’re comparing this to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. It’s been a rough go of it so far with all the HRs flying over the place but all I can really do is just keep on grinding and I hope you’re with me for this bumpy ride. We got a solid 10 games for us this morning and afternoon so the temperatures should be a bit friendlier today. You know the drill: at least two calls per position grouping and no two picks from the same game. Without further ado, let’s get into it.

Catcher/Corner Infield

David Freese – $2,600 vs PIT (Archer)

It’s sad to see how far Archer has fallen since he left the Rays. He has almost no remnants of his old self remaining and is a borderline gas can if not already. He’s given up 22 runs already in just 35.2 IP. Back to the matter at hand, Archer holds very noticeable reverse splits on the season with righties hitting him for a .274 average compared to .218 for lefties. Majority of the Dodgers’ power comes from the left side but they have a couple strong RHBs. Barnes qualifies as a nice play but I’ll go with Freese. While his average doesn’t say much, his overall production has. 9 of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases this season and he’s hit a pair of dongs in his last 4 starts. Lucky for us, Freese holds reverse splits, batting .290 against RHPs this season, setting up nicely for our purposes.

Anthony Rizzo – $4,600 vs CIN (Roark)

I dare you to look at his game log over the last week and tell me you’re not impressed. Here’s his numbers: .429 BA, .484/.929/1.413, 500 ISO, .571 wOBA, 266 wRC+. Those are some scary numbers to process. Enter Roark. He’s been extra stringy on RHBs this season (.209, .264/.252/.516/.228 wOBA). However, lefties are hitting him to the tune of .302 with a slash line of .434/.512/.946 and a wOBA of .407. Rizzo has also seen pretty much every possible pitch over the 7 game span and he has not struggled against any of them. I don’t believe I need to say much more other than that.

Middle Infield

DJ LeMahieu – $3,700 vs KCR (Duffy)

I would put Torres here but I figure you guys are smart enough to know how good he is. I would also put Estrada here if he receives a start but we don’t know just yet so that leaves it to LeMahieu. The transition from Colorado to New York has done nothing to hamper his contact hitting, as he’s hitting at a superb average of .320 on the season. He’s got 11 knocks over the last seven days with a pair of HRs somewhere in between. He’s batting .385 over the past week with a .449 wOBA and a K% rate of just 7%, so you know he’s almost always putting the ball in play. He also pairs up with Duffy’s pitches well (fastball, slider, curve) and – get this – LeMahieu just so happens to have a pitch value of 64.06 against the curve in this time span. Just so we’re clear, 0.00 is the baseline for being average against a pitch. Duffy’s been a bit tougher on RHPs this season but this is an extremely hot Yankees team he has to face and I think they balance the splits scales.

Carlos Correa – $3,900 vs BOS (Rodriguez)

Correa hasn’t exactly been raking it in for us over the last week or so but this should be a nice opportunity to get back on track. Rodriguez holds some serious home/road splits as opposing batters have hit him at a .333 clip on the road while owning 6 of his 7 HRs allowed for an ERA of 7.77. He’s stumbled over the last couple starts, allowing 11 runs over 11 innings, including 3 long balls in his most recent outing. The game time temp projects to be a toasty 88 degrees with a healthy 11 mph wind out to center. Correa is also 4-5 lifetime against E-Rod so this looks just like what the doctor ordered.

Outfield

Kevin Kiermaier – $2,900 vs CLE (Bauer)

Something’s snapped with Kiermaier. Since his series against the Marlins, he’s recorded hits in 8 of his last 9 games while knocking 2 out of the ballpark and legging one out inside the park. While Bauer isn’t exactly an ideal matchup, Bauer has struggled mightily at home this season (6.14 ERA) and has struggled over his last two outings, giving up 3 HRs. He’s batted .316 over the last week with a ridiculous ISO of .526. Progressive Field also favors left handed power as the right field fence only measures to 9 feet. Everything sets up nicely for Kiermaier to continue his success.

Max Kepler – $3,800 vs CWS (Covey)

There’s no hotter team in baseball than the Twins right now and no Twins batter is hotter than Kepler is at the moment. Over the last week, he’s batted a scorching .500 with a .455 ISO and a .593 wOBA. In that same stretch, he’s had five multi-hit performances, including four doubles, 3 HRs, and 9 RBI. The only annoying thing is how no one has managed to hit Covey hard. He’s only given up 4 HRs this season and has an absurd sub 25% hard contact rate. Nonetheless, the Twins are the perfect team to change that trend and that starts by attacking the splits with Kepler.

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Well that just about does it. I will say it was a bit harder for me to find bats that completely fit my liking but I’m happy with what I got down. Hopefully we can turn this around soon and get some green going. Good luck!

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