DFS MLB FanDuel Home Run Predictions 5/27/19 (Main)

Swingin’ for the Fences 

Happy Memorial Day! Before we start it off, I would like to give a warm shoutout to all military veterans. It is because of you guys that we are able to have our freedom. It is because you guys put your lives on the line that we get to call this country our home. So from the bottom of my heart, I salute and respect you. If you aren’t one yourself, be sure to reach out to someone who is and let them know.

While today’s main is just 4 games, I feel it only right to churn one out for you degens that don’t take a break. However, instead of doing my normal position grouping, I will list it by tier this time, from who I think is most likely to hit one to those that are dark horses and finally to those under the radar. I believe that that would make more sense for a slate like tonight’s. Even with just 4 games, we’ve got plenty of firepower available so let’s jump in and see what it the slate has to offer.

Calling the Shot

Derek Dietrich – $2,700 vs PIT (Keller)

There’s not much to gather on Keller. This will be his first ML appearance and while he’s been serviceable in the minors, he’s been nothing to rave about. Both sides have hit him relatively well both this season and last season. As for his arsenal, he has an above average fastball that tops out in the mid 90s along with a decent curve and the occasional change. Today he gets to face a team that possesses a bit a pop from both sides in a pitcher’s ballpark in 82 degree weather. Dietrich has been the team’s best overall power hitter and he’s demonstrated that with 13 HRs on the season, two over his last three starts. He also matches up well with Keller’s pitches. Overall, I do think Keller does well enough to get a win but I also do think he’s pretty liable to give up several runs here and there.

Miguel Sano – $3,900 vs MIL (Gonzalez)

In the 8 games he’s been back, Sano has already crushed 5 HRs and driven in 9 total runs. While I do think this is a game that will have depressed production, I do believe that HRs will be hit in this game. In his career, Gio has done well against those on the same side as him but RHBs usually seem to have at least a slight edge. Last season, righties hit him for .265 and a wOBA of .334 and Sano is the strongest RHB the Twins have to offer. While he does strike out a bit, I think that that worry can be cast aside as Gonzalez has a sub 20% K rate.

Going, going…

Mike Moustakas/Yasmani Grandal – $3,900/$3,100 vs MIN (Pineda)

For the sake of avoiding putting Brewers in every tier, I’m combining the two of them here. Both have been raking in the hits over the past week while posting solid power numbers (.286 and .350 ISO respectively). While Pineda has been stingy on lefties, he’s given up 5 HRs in 21 innings vs LHBs so the power aspect is still there for LHBs. The slightly stronger case can be made for Moustakas as he is 7-18 lifetime against Pineda with 2 doubles, a triple, and 2 dingers.

Asdrubal Cabrera – $2,700 vs SEA (Milone)

I applaud Milone’s solid return to the big leagues but I’m willing to suggest you all to take one more crack at it with a team I haven’t had a great experience with. Every time I choose Rangers, they either fail me or I have the wrong ones. Whenever I don’t, they tend to do well. So, for your sake, I will not be playing Rangers tomorrow. Milone has held extreme reverse splits his entire career so that alone limits the player pool for the Rangers down to just Cabrera, Santana, Pence, and Kiner-Falefa. Cabrera typically doesn’t hit for high average or power but he’s batted a solid .294 over his last 7 games, including one with a double dong. It is a pitcher’s ballpark with the marine layer but I think the wily vet can sneak one out.

…Gone?

Keston Hiura – $2,700 vs MIN (Pineda)

While Milwaukee’s #1 prospect hasn’t made too big of a splash, he’s provided decent contact hitting and a constant presence at 2B. He’s had 6 hits over his last 5 games, including two of his first ML bombs. Today he gets a decent matchup against a very hittable Pineda. He wields a 5.43 ERA on the season and has given up at least 3 or more runs in all but his first two outings. He also holds reverse splits with RHBs having a .382 wOBA to go along with a .300 batting average. Admittedly, the weather conditions are far from ideal but it should lighten up a bit after the starting game time to where they can play a full game. I think Hiura has it in him to find a Pineda pitch to connect and drive.

Starling Marte – $3,500 vs CIN (Gray)

His home run this past Thursday was just his first in over 15 games and just his 2nd of the month. However, since that game, it seems like he’s getting back into the swing of things with his recent 3 hit performance so hopefully there is some early momentum we can catch. Gray has been pretty solid this year as far as limiting damage this season and keep the ball on the ground but Marte figures to have the best shot for the Pirates to do any damage here. LHBs have hit Gray for only an average of .183 this season compared to .260 for RHBs. Gray can be a bit erratic with his control at times so Marte being able to catch one is not completely out of the question.

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Well that finishes things up for this blessed day. Once again, many thanks to those who have served and be sure to reach out to those that have. This was an interesting but fun approach for me so hopefully everything works out. Go make America proud!

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